Are Hybrid Or Prius Sales Stalling?

[Grumpy Cabbie]

Not gonna win any friends posting this but equally I ask the question for honest and open replies.

Whilst searching for info for the American forum I noticed that UK sales of Toyotas flagship model are falling!

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/prius#!newreg

I thought maybe it's because of the scrappage scheme but that was 2008, then I thought maybe it was the 'weasel' warranty but that was 2009/10 and sales in 2010 were the highest. maybe it's the recession but other manufacturers have seen an increase or a flatline in sales - not a reduction.

So why have gen3 Prius sales fallen from 10,300 in 2010 to 6,500 in 2011?

Maybe it's the Auris Hybrid taking sales and there might be some merit in that;

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/auris_hybrid#!newreg

The loss of 4,000 Prius sales is matched by a 4,500 Auris hsd sales. So maybe that's it. But then if the Auris hsd is selling so well, why did a local Toyota dealer ring me to offer me a brand new one with delivery miles for £4,000 less than list? Doesn't sound like a seller if they're doing that.

I dedided to look at other manufacturers selling Prius sized cars (possible taxi material) and noticed the following;

The Honda Insight hybrid has lost a third off sales but the BMW 320d has actually increased sales, as has the Ford Focus, Vauxhall Insignia, Skoda Octavia AND Superb models and the VW Passatt. I did check the Mondeo but that had fallen, but has been for years as company car drivers can now chose what they actually want - obviously not the Prius by the look of it.

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/bmw_320#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/ford_focus#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/vauxhall_insignia#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/octavia#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/superb#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/passatt#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/combined/mondeo#!newreg

So are the UK public now going off hybrids? Are the latest crop of diesels (despite mostly being manuals) getting more economical to make them viable. Is it the new London congestion charge rules that allows any car under 100g/km rather than just hybrids? Or was it the bad publicity Toyota gained from the recalls in early 2010? - though sales were up in 2010!?!

How come, with the exception of the Mondeo are sales of all cars in the same bracket as the Prius selling more, yet Prius sales are down 20%?

I don't believe it's because the gen3 is no longer new. The gen2's sales increased all the way from 2004 to 2009 when it was discontinued.

Could it be the regular price increases for the Prius since 2009? When I bought mine they were just shy of £18,500 with the competition (manual trans) running at £17,000 - £17,500. The Prius offered so much more for the slightly higher price (no tax, good mpg's, tax benefits, better spec) and the payback for someone of my mileage was about 8 months.

Now in 2012 the Prius is £21,100 (basing all this on base models), whereas the base competition has not increased much as is around the £17,500 to £18,000 bracket. Is that £4,000 difference just too large a price to pay? Sure for the 100,000 people who live and work in London CCZ the Prius is still worthwhile, but for the 40 million working people who don't work there, it's getting harder for the sums to add up for the Prius. The £4,000 payback is too high for me now. Even with the fuel savings I make against a diesel manual £4,000 would take about 40,000 miles before I save, then the Prius needs servicing every 10k rather than 12.5k, 15k, 18k or 20k like the competition. That means I would be servicing my Prius 3 times a year, rather than once with a 20k service car. At £150 and £250 for the two service types, that's a good £500 pa more for the Prius.

I know it is said some don't buy a car just to make the sums add up but something's not right somewhere. Is it private owners avoiding them because of ill informed Battery worries or fleet sales and lease companies avoiding them because of higher service costs (remember that 0w30 oil) and lower residuals?

I hope this was balanced. I'm trying to picture the reason for lower sales, not have you pick at certain specs being different etc.

[cuius]

Maybe sales are going to the opposition? According to the latest SMMT figures registrations of hybrids are up 1% for the year-to-date, whilst pure electrics are up 25% and alternative-fuelled (bio, LPG, autogas, etc.) are up 130%

[kithmo]

I put the Prius sales loss down to one thing, Value for money. In the eyes of the general car buyer, the Prius is way over priced as a mainstream car and in these days of recession (double dip now) people are looking for value for money. The high cost of the Prius cannot be recouped by the fuel cost savings for the average motorist and the lack of quality feel in the car does not compensate for the excellent technolgy to Joe public.

As far as the Ford Mondeo goes, it just got too big, hence the increase in Focus sales.

[Chris Dance]

Folk have not got the cash for the price of a new Prius. Prius prices are high compared to some other cars.

I know several people who have recently purchased second hand Prius Gen 3s. Reasons: Cheaper than a new car, excellent fuel consumption, no road tax and Toyota reputation for reliability. Second hand low mileage Gen 3s seem reasonably priced.

GC have you considered a second hand low mileage 2010-2011 Gen 3? These would have the 5 year warranty on the car and 8 year Battery warranty. The people I know who have recently bought Gen 3s all took a three year service plan.

[Parts-King]

I'm not sure the dip in sales of any manufacturer is based on price alone, the UK market is very complex

In 2007, the UK market was 2.4 million units, and by Q1 2009 it had reduced to 1.69 M, this was due to the economy and all manufacturers suffered huge losses. By the start of 2010 and with scrappage in place, the market moved back to 2.45 M units. By the end of 2010 and with the end of scrappage, we were down to 1.88 M units. During this time VAT was increased 2.5% and we have rumbled along selling between 1.9 and 2 M units. The outlook for 2012 is a stable/ flat market with very limited recovery. This is for all manufacturers not just Toyota

Toyota have never had a very strong fleet presence, but in March YTD, Toyota were ranked 9th with sales of 8123. Ford sold 39449 fleet cars in the same period so you can see the huge difference I'm talking about. Pruis sales to fleet are very small and always have been, however I expect that to change over the next two years with higher company car taxes and BIK rates

ALL manufacturers have revised their sales plans and forecasts for 2012 / 13 and even though Prius sales have reduced, you cannot say this is due to price / warranty alone. It is far more complicated, it is more likely to be a combination of things such as lowered production of Prius in line with their own sales forecasts (with Auris HSD. Prius plug in and Yaris Hybrid being available soon) price / downturn in economy etc. If it was price alone then you would see far more aggresive marketing and offers. Do you see Prius 0% offers or discounts being advertised nationally? No, thats because the Prius sales target is on track. You only normally get offers / reductions when the manufacturer is struggling with sales, just like any other business, supply and demand dictates

Whilst sales of some models are down, you would expect that to be the case in these economic times. Take a look at the small car and super mini market, up 7.7% and 13% respectively in March, even the SUV Mini and SUV compact market are up, it is only the SUV Large market that is 14.9% down. Weirdly, the Premium car market is up too

Of course, you can make anything you like of figures, it could just as easily be the weasel warranty on Gen3 that has brought us into double dip recession

King Facto

[valmiki]

I agree with all the comments above. The Prius is an expensive car, and it doesn't depreciate well! Which makes it an even better bargain second-hand. Also, with the number of car brokers around today, (Drive The Deal is one I've used before) you'd be mad to pay list price on any new car. Once the new model frenzy has settled down in a few months, I'm positive that 2012 Prius's will be available for 10% off the list price, as was for the 2010 model.

[Parts-King]

The Prius is an expensive car, and it doesn't depreciate well!

Who says so? Depreciation is not an exact science, but companies like CAP and Glass's spend a considerable amount of time and money to work out depreciation and it very much depends on who you speak to. Buying from new or buying after year one will give you completely different figures. Here is an extract from the Greenmotor buyers guide. SOURCE

For example, if you want to buy new and keep the car for three years, there’s no contest: buy a Prius. Opting for the Toyota instead of the Vauxhall will save you about £3,000 when you come to trade-in time – even the ever-popular Golf won’t do as well as the Prius. But if you plan to buy nearly new at 12 months’ old and to keep the car for the same three years, the Prius is the last car you should buy. Opting for a nearly-new Vauxhall instead of the techno Toyota will save you almost £4,000 over the three years.

A couple of other interesting points also drop out of the graphs. The three hybrids generally do better than the eco-diesels, with the best performing diesel – the Golf – doing only marginally better than the Insight – the worst performing hybrid – from new to year four. And also, it doesn’t really matter which hybrid you choose if you intend to buy new and keep for four years, as they all end up losing roughly the same amount, but it matters a lot if you buy at year one, at which point you should buy the Honda Civic

Kingo

[Grumpy Cabbie]

I'm glad this thread has remained on track for being sensible. Yeah I've read the news of the double dip recession and that isn't going to help one jot. I know I won't be buying any car (new or second hand) until the economy starts moving again - and yes I appreciate that if I don't buy a car I am helping cause the recession but I've got to look after my priorities first.

I hear PartsKings comments, but if the Prius is on track for sales, how come it's selling less? Or is that the crazy mad marketing worlds idea that why sell 10k at £20k when we can increase the price by 20% and sell 20% less and still make the same money?? Who knows.

But it's odd that the sales are down on the Prius, sales down on the NEW Avensis, yet up on Skoda and up on VW. Putting this down to just the recession smack of complacency to me. Well, either that or a brave face :)

Got combined sales stats for all models for the top handful of manufacturers sales; You'll notice Toyota and Peugeot sales are on a nose dive, Ford and Vauxhall have flatlined and Skoda, VW, Audi and BMW have increased.

http://howmanyleft.c.../toyota#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...peugeot#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...ed/ford#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...auxhall#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...d/skoda#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...kswagen#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...ed/audi#!newreg

http://howmanyleft.c...ned/bmw#!newreg

So it can't be as simple as just the recession. Is it the models on offer? or the pricing or a bit of everything? I like Toyota and I like the local dealer, but I fear they're outpricing themselves (unless that's part of their marketing plan) and restricting to some duller models? And this is said from a household that has a 59 plate Prius and a 60 plate IQ.

[valmiki]

KIngo, those numbers are out of date. As GC has mentioned the cheapest Prius is now over £21k, not £18k as mentioned in the graphs. And I'm positive that residuals have not increased in line with that.

Other marques haven't increased their prices to that extent, in fact car models on the whole are getting more efficient whereas the Prius (excluding the prlug-in which at the price it's advertised at lol) hasn't improved it's efficiency, but has in fact got more expensive to run! (once you include the price increase).

[valmiki]

It also makes you wonder (without going too off-topic) about the recent deal between Toyota and BMW, BMW get access to Hybrid technology and Toyota get access to BMW's diesel tech. Guess there's life in the diesel engines yet, perhaps even a surprise on the horizon...

[Grumpy Cabbie]

KIngo, those numbers are out of date. As GC has mentioned the cheapest Prius is now over £21k, not £18k as mentioned in the graphs. And I'm positive that residuals have not increased in line with that.

They're probably the numbers I used when I purchased my Prius in mid to late 2009. Now look what's happened.

[dervdave]

A lot has to do with the increased efficiency of petrol engines in general and I think we`ll also see a turn away from diesel engines to small high output petrol engines like the Ford Eco-boost.

[Parts-King]

Yes I know the figures were 18K in the graph, but in reality, the depreciation is no worse

GS's problem is he has been given a very low value for his car, and the reason for that is it is an EX Taxi with high miles. I don't wish to sound rude but who is going to give retail money (or anything else like it) for an EX Taxi? Nobody

Toyota's market share is not dipping. March YTD they were ranked 5th, about 200 cars behind Audi, above Nissan, BMW, Peugeot and Mercedes, behind Ford, Vauxhall, VW, Audi and with a 5.7% market share, it is true to say however that they are not selling as many cars overall as they have done in previous years

I'm not too sure of the figures represented on that website, i havnt got time to digest them but some look very suspect, it says 8 Prius were registered in 2011 :D:

http://howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/toyota_prius_hybrid#!newreg

I ay again, it is not just aas simple as economy, but a whole raft of things as mentioned in my post above

Kingo

[Grumpy Cabbie]

I'm not too sure of the figures represented on that website, i havnt got time to digest them but some look very suspect, it says 8 Prius were registered in 2011 :D:

http://howmanyleft.c..._hybrid#!newreg

That was for grey imported Prii. Hence the hundreds registered in 2001 before the Prius was officially registered. If you choose the t3 or t-spirit for even 10th Aniversary option you get a rolling total of how many of those cars are registered as well as the annual sales option.

It even has an option to show the 20 or so plug in test vehicles that came over a couple years ago. So maybe it's not 100% accurate, rather fairly accurate, but it certainly gives a good indication.

http://howmanyleft.c...phv_cvt#!newreg

Still, it was accurate enough to show the drop in sales for Toyota in general ;)

Oh and whilst looking I remembered Nissan, who also are improving sales year on year. No recession or complicated market forces to cloud the issue for them either? So what gives with Toyota? If Nissan can increase their sales 20k each year for the last two years, how come Toyota can't?

http://howmanyleft.c.../nissan#!newreg

[Parts-King]

You can make what you like out of figures. Nissan had a 35% fall in sales over a 5 year period. There were times you couldn't give a Nissan away, but they are having a good time at the moment with selected models

Manufacturers don't make cars and hope they sell, hanging around in fields for years like they used to. If a model doesnt sell, they reduce the numbers they make, facelift it, give it a huge marketing push or whatever is needed

Figures for March YTD, as you can see, no nose dive in sales ;)

Kingo

[Grumpy Cabbie]

Isn't it correct online etiquette to show the link to where the information was gathered some that others can check it for accuracy and context?

Without that, that graph could be 2008, 1998, made up, whatever. I'm sure it isn't but it would be nice to know where graphs and facts come from. I gave my links (for what they're worth).

[Parts-King]

Isn't it correct online etiquette to show the link to where the information was gathered some that others can check it for accuracy and context?

Without that, that graph could be 2008, 1998, made up, whatever. I'm sure it isn't but it would be nice to know where graphs and facts come from. I gave my links (for what they're worth).

Yes if it's on a public website. This is not, it's a slide from a Toyota presentation I attended a few weeks ago, I would probably be shot for showing it but hey ho!

From a few years back or made up??? Why would I do that, the full month info will be available on the SMMT website shortly, these figures were on day 15 of March and YTD

I don't have to make up the figures, nor justify them, I am giving the other side of the coin which is something rarely seen on these forums. It is the lack of knowledge of the motor trade that give rise to people making wild and spurious remarks, this forum is littered with them, I don't have time to argue the point in a lot of cases.

This tread has been born from you being p****d at the price you were offered for your car. You are now trying to seek facts and figures to justify your low offering. I have given my opinion of why I think you were offered a low price, I did in fact go to the trouble of getting a valuation for your car which was much better than you had been offered, but you failed to mention that anywhere in your writings. I still stick to my original comments, Prius sales have dropped because Toyota have held back on producing them (market forces) economics, and will have additional Hybrid models out this year. I don't write their marketing strategy, I'm sure they know what they are doing (well maybe) and the price you were offered is still nothing to do with weasel warranty, the fact is it was a Taxi, and nobody wants an ex taxi, especially if they cant get an extended warranty on it

Kingo

[cootuk]

Changing the thread angle slightly, here in Bradford I've seen about five brand new Insights over the last couple of weeks, whereas I've only seen a couple of Civic hybrids in the last year. Someone must be very good at selling the Insights.

There now seem to be a handful of Prius taxi knocking round my area (Odsal), though I'm not going to get in and ask them what their trade-in value is !!!!!

[Seamaster73]

Prius is far too expensive to buy new at retail, even when retail punters are abundant, which right now they're not. That's why sales have dropped off a cliff. While it makes sense as a company car (especially if you're a higher rate taxpayer), there's no way I'd buy one with my own money.

[Grumpy Cabbie]

So if I'm positive about the Prius then I'm an asset for Toyota, but if my comments are negative I'm making things up to be vindictive?

My last point on this is that at least I quoted my sources and tried to balance that some manufactuers have increased sales - including unlikely manufactuers such as Skoda.

Perhaps the "blame everyone else" culture is rife at Toyota? I don't know. It seems a few on here haven't had entirely positive dealings with Toyota UK in the past - remembering the recall palava.

I am also aware taxi's don't get great trade in values - having traded them in before. It's just that in the past they've always demanded more and with higher mileage. I also note that it was Mr Coot that indicated in his opening post that he wouldn't buy a gen3 with the 60k miles warranty.

Anyhow, if sales of Toyotas increase then there's nothing to worry about, but I know where my money would be on that bet - and it isn't the recession ;)

[Grumpy Cabbie]

...... I'm sure they know what they are doing (well maybe) and the price you were offered is still nothing to do with weasel warranty, the fact is it was a Taxi, and nobody wants an ex taxi, especially if they cant get an extended warranty on it

Just curious why that gen3 Prius in Autotrader this week that had 28k miles was being sold for £11,000? That wasn't a taxi so why to the poor trade in?

I accept mine will have a lower value but how many owners on here have 28,000 miles or more and will expect a trade in below £11,000?

[thecaretaker]

Whilst searching for info for the American forum I noticed that UK sales of Toyotas flagship model are falling!

http://howmanyleft.c...d/prius#!newreg

Were the 2011 sales of Toyota Prius Gen3 affected by the tsunami. When I purchased mine last year, I was told that Toyota couldn't confirm delivery especially if I wanted a specific colour or spec. I ended up buying the showrooms demo Blue T-Spirit (1500 miles on the clock) as it just happened to be the colour etc I wanted (and I saved £2k on the price of new).

[Seamaster73]

That definitely had an impact last year. Lead time on mine from order to delivery was six months.

[Grumpy Cabbie]

Yeah I forgot about the Tsunami. That could have affected sales of Japan made Toyota cars such as the Prius. Not sure how that affects sales of the Avensis BUT this thread is about the hybrid.

I would wonder why second hand values are low though if new demand was subdued.