Auris Production Now We Have Voted to Leave Europe

[TomdeGuerre]

What now for Toyota's production of Auris in the UK? Will France or some of the other EU countries purloin our British car industry away?

 

[Cyker]

Well nothing's going to happen in the mid future; I'm sure they're making contingency plans, along with a lot of companies, but they've got too much invested to just up-shop and leave. If they're sensible they'll wait and see what our politicians can negotiate first before making any big decisions.

Heck, we might even remain in the EEA, which would be rather ironic since the main argument for leaving seems to be immigration (If we stay in the EEA we still have to allow free movement)

I must admit I'm still in shock at the result!

 

[TomdeGuerre]

Bit of a shock myself, Cyker, but a pleasant one. I voted to leave but never really expected the majority to do the same. I don't think much will happen in the short term but wouldn't be in the least surprised if Toyota comes under pressure to move its manufacturing to somewhere in Europe. France comes to mind, they've never been shy about coming forward in things like this.  

[FROSTYBALLS]

The UK plant is currently the European production centre for both the Auris and Avensis (the Avensis being a European market only model). Toyota have previously stated in March that Brexit may mean significant cuts in investment after the current planned programme of investment over the next two/three years.

Toyota currently produces the Yaris in France, and the Corolla, Verso and forthcoming CH-R in Turkey (a non-EU country). Engines are manufactured at Bridgend, Wales and Poland. The Aygo is produced in the Czech Republic by the Joint Venture with PSA. The Proace is manufactured by PSA.

The current Auris was a re-working of the 2007 model (and even carried forward the Type Approval), rather than being a completely new car. Same with the Avensis which was a reworking of the 2009 model. Suspect that Toyota may cease competing in the large family sector (Avensis/Mondeo/Passat sector) within Europe after the current model - due to the sector shrinking and being less viable/profitable - probably around 2018/19.

Given that Turkey is non-EU, there is scope for Toyota to continue within the UK - whether that is just with the Auris replacement in approx 2018 may be open to question.

 

[TomdeGuerre]

Frosters right on the ball as usual. Didn’t know Toyota had previously stated that Brexit might mean significant cuts in investment here. I’d also say that although Turkey isn’t in the EU, they do expect to join. 

The French are very self-centred and only to seem to be EU-oriented when it suits them. I wouldn't be surprised if they blag a good bit of Toyota for themselves. We used to make Massey Ferguson combine harvesters here in the UK but France changed all that and now all the MF operations are located in France. Just saw a news article not so long ago where French farmers were going through the supermarkets and throwing out anything that wasn’t made in France. No signs of Gallic entente cordial there mon ami, n’est ce pas? I’m glad we’re no longer handcuffed to that lot anyway.

[Heidfirst]

Toyota have a significant investment in manufacturing in the UK & the factories have a good track record, I suspect that it is not going anywhere in the near future. The longer term question is what happens when Avensis & current Auris production end - where will the replacements be built? I doubt that Toyota has that kind of spare capacity in Europe without building/expanding a factory elsewhere (which may have happened anyway if Toyota's recent production process improvements produce the kind of savings that they were talking about http://blog.toyota.co.uk/tnga-explained-10-ways-toyota-is-changing-how-cars-are-built ).

[Cyker]

Well nothing is going to change in the near future; It's what happens after the 2 years is up that worries me! It all hinges on our politicians' ability to renegotiate all these agreements we've taken for granted.

I know the company my brother works for is !Removed! bricks, as if they bring WTO import tariffs in they're going to get destroyed by their competitors on the continent.

 

It's great how the Leave people are already backtracking on what they were saying during the campaign about immigration and the NHS...

 

[TomdeGuerre]

1 hour ago, Heidfirst said:

Toyota have a significant investment in manufacturing in the UK & the factories have a good track record, I suspect that it is not going anywhere in the near future. The longer term question is what happens when Avensis & current Auris production end - where will the replacements be built? I doubt that Toyota has that kind of spare capacity in Europe without building/expanding a factory elsewhere (which may have happened anyway if Toyota's recent production process improvements produce the kind of savings that they were talking about http://blog.toyota.co.uk/tnga-explained-10-ways-toyota-is-changing-how-cars-are-built ).

Just imagine if British Leyland had all that investment and technology available, Austin / Morris et al might have been reliable instead of well, challenging.  Looking at that Toyota 10 Ways link things like the 5S programme  sorting, straightening, systematic cleaning, standardizing, and sustaining. I’ve seen even small companies like plating shops using that and when they mapped out their processes they were amazed at just how much double tracking and criss-crossing of the parts went on and the time they could save. 

I see they’ve got machines that can do both aluminium and steel welding. When I was in the motor trade I did a fair amount of oxy-acetylene welding steel (usually rusty) floors, sills floor panels etc. We had a salesman came in once selling special aluminium rods to repair  things like water pump castings with a broken lug. He could do it all right, he was an expert but I couldn’t get the hang off it at all, every time I tried I just got a pile of melted alum-ash.
 

[TomdeGuerre]

37 minutes ago, Cyker said:

Well nothing is going to change in the near future; It's what happens after the 2 years is up that worries me! It all hinges on our politicians' ability to renegotiate all these agreements we've taken for granted.

I know the company my brother works for is !Removed! bricks, as if they bring WTO import tariffs in they're going to get destroyed by their competitors on the continent. It's great how the Leave people are already backtracking on what they were saying during the campaign about immigration and the NHS...
 

I see they're threatening to hold another Independence Referendum in Scotland IndyRef2 or something. Bring it on says I, eejits that they are. Scotlands oil industry is decimated and global oil prices set to remain low for a long while yet - just the time we should be talking about splitting from the UK? Aye right.  

[yossarian247]

2 hours ago, TomdeGuerre said:

Frosters right on the ball as usual. Didn’t know Toyota had previously stated that Brexit might mean significant cuts in investment here. I’d also say that although Turkey isn’t in the EU, they do expect to join. 

Although there was some talk of Turkey joining the EU at one point I'm not sure it will ever happen. There is the issue of Turkey first giving back the third of Cyprus that they've been occupying since 1974. One EU country is not allowed to occupy another! 

[cobh18]

"One EU country is not allowed to occupy another! "  Green light for Spain re Gibraltar? Unforeseen consequences of Brexit! On Turkey accession, EU set 35 conditions, or Chapters. Progress pitiful: more here: https://fullfact.org/europe/turkey-likely-join-eu/ 

[Cyker]

13 hours ago, TomdeGuerre said:

I see they're threatening to hold another Independence Referendum in Scotland IndyRef2 or something. Bring it on says I, eejits that they are. Scotlands oil industry is decimated and global oil prices set to remain low for a long while yet - just the time we should be talking about splitting from the UK? Aye right. 

You could say the same thing about what we've just done; i.e. risk everything for the sake of tightening control over our self-governance.

That's really all Scotland would get out of it; The difference is they know that, whereas I'm guessing all the Leave voters who thought we'd clamp down on immigration are getting a bit of a shock now, since not only have Leave back-pedalled and said that immigration levels will probably stay the same, there's talk we might stay in the EEA which means we'll still be stuck by all the EU rules but we won't have a say in making or changing them in our favour any more.

 

 

[TomdeGuerre]

Under EU law an occupied country is not allowed to join but they somehow manipulated that to allow Cyprus to join. The people of Cyprus thought that somehow joining the EU would solve the Turkish problem but of course it didn’t because they were dealing with bureaucrats, not problem solvers.  

It puzzles me how the EU head honchos can circumvent laws and rules at will - as well as the fact they don’t need to account for about 60% of the budget they spend every year. 

All that apart, I don’t think we’ve done any harm to our chances of continuing to manufacture cars after Brexit, there was nothing cast in stone anyway. What with that and the ‘flat pack’ car factories, it’s very much a portable convenience anyway.

Here’s what the people of Bulgaria thought about us leaving:  
 

[Countrylad]

The way the pound's going, they'd be crazy to make cars anywhere except the UK. Suddenly our exports have become ultra-cheap for other EU countries to buy. Of course, the price of imported components has gone up, but that's nothing Toyota can't take in its stride. The yen's been up and down like a tart's drawers for the last forty years, and it hasn't got its footing wrong just yet.

Short answer: the manufacturing cost of a UK-built car for sale in Europe has just gone down by about  a thousand quid.

 

[TomdeGuerre]

3 hours ago, Countrylad said:

The way the pound's going, they'd be crazy to make cars anywhere except the UK. Suddenly our exports have become ultra-cheap for other EU countries to buy. Of course, the price of imported components has gone up, but that's nothing Toyota can't take in its stride. The yen's been up and down like a tart's drawers for the last forty years, and it hasn't got its footing wrong just yet.  

Short answer: the manufacturing cost of a UK-built car for sale in Europe has just gone down by about  a thousand quid.

>>> Yes, but the new Euro Tariffs will cancel that out.........

 

 

[FROSTYBALLS]

In the ten years to 2014, the UK was the EU's single largest export market, taking in 16% of all EU exports. The US was 15%, China 8% and Switzerland and Russia each accounting for 6%.

There may well be a tariff payable on the UK's exports to the EU, but equally there may be a tariff on EU exports to the UK. The German auto industry, in particular VAG, wouldn't be too happy if there were.

As the UK will be free of the EU competition regulations in awarding public sector contracts, there could be a case for introducing a requirement for vehicles supplied to public sector bodies (government departments, armed forces, emergency services, local authorities, etc) to have a certain level of local content. Which is a system that has been used by other countries.

Currently the UK produces a limited number of vehicles in most market sectors - eg Nissan Note (supermini sector); Nissan Juke (small crossover);  Vauxhall Astra, Mini, Mini Clubman, Nissan Leaf and Toyota Auris (small family car); Nissan Qashqai (crossover); Toyota Avensis (large family car); Nissan Primastar/Renault Trafic/Vauxhall Vivaro (medium van); Range Rover Evoque (SUV); Jaguar XF (executive car); etc.

By the way some police forces are already moving away from manufacturers like BMW due to reliability issues.

[Cyker]

The issues is the uncertainty; We don't even know if there will be tariffs - It's all up to the negotiations and also whether we stay in the EEA. The pound will probably recover after a while, but again we won't know for sure until a good few years.

The next 2 years are going to be... 'interesting', in the chinese proverbial sense

A lot of the EU are feeling quite butt-hurt and betrayed right now, although the german, polish and estonian governments seem to be appealing for the rest to not be too hard on us during negotiations, so I think Cameron was smart to not begin the exit process until later; Hopefully everyone will calm down and hammer out something mutually beneficial.

I know my friend will miss driving over to France at will and buying up crates of booze tho'! We were talking earlier and he was like "****! You mean I can only bring back 6 bottles of wine now?!?!?!" 

 

[Heidfirst]

we are still part of the EU until we formally leave - that's 2+ years away ...