The Future Of Our Diesels

[Kennycab]

Hopefully we will all be a little more enlightened tomorrow after 12 noon, and the chancellor won't be emptying my pockets too fast as I don't really want to get rid of my diesel. I can't imagine having a petrol again, too many visits to the filling station. If the tax goes up then the values will go down.

An earlier post discussed haulage and the use of diesel engines in vans and lorries. I remember back in the seventies most Transit vans had petrol engines, diesels were rare, even the ambulances had petrol engines. In fact, pretty much all light vans and pickups had petrol engines, with carburettors and distributors with points and a rotor arm, most unreliable at times ! Every time there was a budget, tax would go up on petrol, diesel, beer and tobacco no matter what.

Prius seems like it has proven the hybrid system, I see it is now used in various other models but not the Avensis. I will be unlikely to change to hybrid until there is a car of the same size fitted with it, is it not suitable for a car of the Avensis size ?

[FROSTYBALLS]

Toyota have previously said they won't be doing a hybrid version of the Avensis - suppose partly to do with the age of the current platform, the fact that for Europe they're reviewing their presence in this market sector (which continues to shrink), the fact that the Prius has the same size wheelbase as the Avensis, and is already Toyota's hybrid offering in this market sector. 

Whether they do the same as Nissan did by replacing the Almera and Primera with the Qashqai, and effectively replace the Avensis with the C-HR is a possibility. As regards the C-HR, according to Toyota's UK sales figures for the year to date 2017, the C-HR is already outselling the Avensis by just over 4 to 1 (13,054 C-HR sales compared to 3,206 Avensis sales). 71% of the C-HR sales were hybrids.

 

[Heidfirst]

3 hours ago, Kennycab said:

Prius seems like it has proven the hybrid system, I see it is now used in various other models but not the Avensis. I will be unlikely to change to hybrid until there is a car of the same size fitted with it, is it not suitable for a car of the Avensis size ?

You can also go up to a RAV4 hybrid which uses a 2.5l ICE instead of the 1.8l ICE used in the Auris & Prius Hybrids.

[Heidfirst]

3 hours ago, FROSTYBALLS said:

Whether they do the same as Nissan did by replacing the Almera and Primera with the Qashqai, and effectively replace the Avensis with the C-HR is a possibility.

You can't replace the Avensis with the C-HR, it's too small. You could replace the Avensis with a larger SUV although that may then start to step on the RAV's toes ...

[FROSTYBALLS]

1 hour ago, Heidfirst said:

You can't replace the Avensis with the C-HR, it's too small. You could replace the Avensis with a larger SUV although that may then start to step on the RAV's toes ...

As I said Nissan replaced the Almera and Primera with the Qashqai crossover - the current version of which is between 17 and 19mm longer than the C-HR. So if Nissan sees the Qashqai as a suitable replacement for the Primera, Toyota could also see the C-HR as a suitable replacement for the Avensis.

It is also rumoured that the replacement for the Prius+ will be an SUV - fitting in between the C-HR and the Rav4. There are five seat versions of the current Prius+ on sale in some markets (eg the Daihatsu Mebius), so the replacement could offer both five and seven seat versions.

[Cyker]

Well they do seem to miss the point of why people buy their cars so I could imagine them doing something loony like trying to replace the Avensis with the CR-H. 

It's like how the Yaris Mk3 has absolutely none of the characteristics that made the original Yaris so popular with people like me - It doesn't have any of the clever design features or interior storage of its predecessors. It's like they were too scared to even deviate a little bit from the norm and instead made a cookie-cutter car that basically doesn't offer anything over its rivals.

I'm curious to see how Mazda's new engine does - Supposedly the cleanliness and revviness of a petrol with the pull and efficiency of a diesel. Sounds like the holy grail of engines! Sadly it's a good few years away and those officious gits in London may have forced me to get rid of my Yaris before then!

I still think it's amusing that a relatively small company like Mazda seem to be the leading pioneers of engine development; You'd think VW or Toyota would have beaten them to the punch! I mean, they're definitely not the first company to make an automotive HCCI engine (I think GM had one at one point??) but none of the others could get over the very narrow working parameters - None of them thought to cheat by putting a spark plug in there to give it that extra push over the edge!

 

The long term reliability is the only concern I have for it - That engine will be very very dependent on its sensors and computer, and if they cheap out on either of those it will cause really hard to diagnose problems!

 

[Heidfirst]

16 hours ago, FROSTYBALLS said:

As I said Nissan replaced the Almera and Primera with the Qashqai crossover - the current version of which is between 17 and 19mm longer than the C-HR. So if Nissan sees the Qashqai as a suitable replacement for the Primera, Toyota could also see the C-HR as a suitable replacement for the Avensis.

It's an alternative offering but it's not a replacement. Hence why Nissan has since launched the Pulsar as an Almera replacement.

[Heidfirst]

2 hours ago, Cyker said:

The long term reliability is the only concern I have for it - That engine will be very very dependent on its sensors and computer, and if they cheap out on either of those it will cause really hard to diagnose problems!

& I suspect fuel quality too.

[Cyker]

Maybe, but theoretically HCCI should be like diesel cycle engines and care less about fuel quality. The only reason diesel engines can't run on any combustible liquid is the stupidly-high pressure injectors have ludicrously tight tolerances and need a very debris-free and highly lubricating fuel to stop them destroying themselves. This is why ancient diesels with half-ubikd mechanical pumps can be run on stuff like straight chip-oil but modern ones would just break.

Actually, I reckon HCCI engines might even work better with a worse RON/Octane petrol since it'd be much easier to trigger combustion by compression! So Americans and their crappy 85RON fuel might actually see the most benefit!

But if the injectors are as delicate as diesel ones (I don't see why they would since they could run at a much lower pressure?) they would deffo need good fuel filtering...
 

[Kennycab]

Unfortunately the Prius does not have enough boot space for me, and there aren't many used estates knocking about. I do a lot of airport runs and the Avensis hatchback can usually carry 4 people with their luggage, occasionally it's a struggle if they have 4 large cases or a pram as well but my next one will be an estate so that problem will be overcome. A Prius can't match that.

I did think of Auris hybrid estate, similar sized boot to Avensis but not so roomy inside for 5 people, and prices are much higher than diesel Avensis. Even factoring in savings on road tax and fuel it still can't beat the Avensis diesel. I imagine the fuel savings on a Rav4 hybrid aren't quite as good with it being 2.5. You have to be comfortable if you are going to be driving for long periods.

I expect the CH-R has outsold the Avensis for a number of reasons, including the fact it is available as hybrid and the Avensis is not. It is the latest trendy styling that also appeals to a young person, whereas the Avensis is more of a family type of car or good for a business user who covers a lot of miles. I don't think it's really the same market.

Oh well, I expect that something will have appearred as a suitable replacement to the Avensis when I get to the point where I am buying one that is to be made anywhere close to the end of their production, my current one is 10 years old and they are still being made so there should be at least 10 years more of Avensis ownership if I want it, unless I am put out of a job by Uber and their fleet of driverless Volvo XC90s of course.

[FROSTYBALLS]

One possibility to replace the Avensis would be the Corolla saloon. Although the current Corolla shares a lot with the Auris, it is physically a larger car and has the same size wheelbase as the Avensis and Prius. The current Corolla is only 130mm shorter than the Avensis.  I presume the Corolla is due for replacement around the same time as the Auris (2018-19?), and a replacement Corolla could, if made slightly larger, compete effectively in the Avensis/Prius market sector in the UK.

[Heidfirst]

6 hours ago, Cyker said:

Maybe, but theoretically HCCI should be like diesel cycle engines and care less about fuel quality. The only reason diesel engines can't run on any combustible liquid is the stupidly-high pressure injectors have ludicrously tight tolerances and need a very debris-free and highly lubricating fuel to stop them destroying themselves. This is why ancient diesels with half-ubikd mechanical pumps can be run on stuff like straight chip-oil but modern ones would just break.

Actually, I reckon HCCI engines might even work better with a worse RON/Octane petrol since it'd be much easier to trigger combustion by compression! So Americans and their crappy 85RON fuel might actually see the most benefit!

But if the injectors are as delicate as diesel ones (I don't see why they would since they could run at a much lower pressure?) they would deffo need good fuel filtering...
 

My understanding is that Direct Injection petrols also produce bad particulates > if so they will require emission equipment like a modern diesel & it's that that often causes problems on modern diesels especially if run on poor diesel.

[Cyker]

Really??? I thought all modern petrols were direct injection! 
 

[FROSTYBALLS]

In the aftermath of VW's emissions troubles, in the short term, they are looking to install gasoline particulate filters on some of their petrol engines. 

[Cyker]

Waaaaa?! So... they are trying to combine all the downsides of a petrol engine with all the downsides of a diesel engine?! That is hilarious!  
 

[Heidfirst]

1 hour ago, Cyker said:

Really??? I thought all modern petrols were direct injection! 
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_direct_injection

[APS]

Coming back to the original question, I for one would not buy a diesel car today (which is why I'm holding on to my old hybrid). Rules will only be tighter as time goes and petrol cars are unlikely to get away unchallenged either. The wheels of change are in motion.

 

 

[Cyker]

Well it's all about how much they try to screw us in doing it; The main reason I'm so mad about this situation is we were strongly encouraged to buy diesels by the people now shafting us for owning diesels, and they so far they are avoiding taking any culpability or responsibility for it.

It's always all stick and no carrot, to coin a phrase. The only concession I've heard whispers of is an extremely remote chance of a scrappage scheme, but a scrappage scheme is useless because it only applies to new cars and you'd have to be very rich or very stupid to buy a brand new car to get around this as you'd end up spending more than the penalties would mount up to!

And at the end of the day, I just enjoy driving diesel more than petrol; The power and torque bands are in just the right place, not like in petrol where you have to rev it to the moon to get any push out of it. They are much easier to drive and I just love that push you get when you give it the beans; You'd have to buy a much thirstier petrol car to get even a sense of that.

That is one plus with electrics tho' - They offer that sense of force too; It's just a shame they're all huge and/or have terrible range!

It's still deffo in the early adopter phase IMHO; I'm not interested until they can make something the size of an Aygo with enough range to get me to Exeter and back again without having to stop at every services on the way for a zap-n-dash!