Petrol Cars Will Vanish in 8 Years

[Mr Wolf]

A Stanford University economist professor predicts that the whole of land transport will switch to electric powered vehicles. No more petrol or diesel cars, buses or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within 8 years. This was the lead story in the Business section of the Daily Telegraph on 15 May 2017.

His premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to electric vehicles that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil based cars with a near zero marginal cost of fuel and expected lifespan of 1m miles.

Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. Cities will ban human drivers once data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel.

The tipping point will arrive over the next 3 to 4 years as Battery ranges surpass 250 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to $30,000. By 2022 the low end models will be down to $20,000. After that the avalanche will will sweep all before it.

This will produce a twin death spiral for the likes of Ford, General Motors, the German car industry, and all the oil industry.

The next generation of cars will be “computers on wheels”. Google, Apple and Foxcomm will become pre-eminent in car production. Silicon Valley is where the auto action will be, not Detroit, Wolfsburg or Toyota City.

The professor predicts that 95% of miles driven in the US will be in autonomous electric vehicles for reasons of costs, convenience and efficiency. Oil use will crash from 8m barrels a day to 1m.

The cost per mile for EVs will be 6.8 cents, rendering petrol cars obsolete. Insurance costs will fall by 90%. The average American household will save $5,600 per year by making the switch.

The professor's broad point is that multiple technological trends are combining in a perfect storm. The simplicity of the EV is breathtaking. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car. Maintenance is essentially zero. That is why Tesla are currently offering infinite miles warranties. Self drive “vehicles on demand” will become the norm.

All this will have wide ranging impact on Government revenues, oil companies, car manufacturers and car users – assuming, of course, some or all of it comes to pass in the timescales the professor predicts.

[FROSTYBALLS]

35 minutes ago, Mr Wolf said:

That is why Tesla are currently offering infinite miles warranties.

In fact in the US, Tesla have a 4 year or 50,000 mile (whichever occurs first) new car warranty, and an 8 year/unlimited mileage Battery and drive unit warranty - https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

[Heidfirst]

& I bet more than 18 moving parts ... :P

[nielshm]

Well, as long a Nissan Leaf costs 33.000£ here in Danmark and a Tesla Model S costs more than 110.000£, petrol powered still has a brillant future ahead of them. With tthe very large amount of batteries beeing produced, I'm a bit worried about long terms effects on the enviroment, and can the earth supply us With enough raw material, to keep production gooing for 30-50 years? 

[mickburkesnr]

I think anyone who has watched Demolition Man knows that it's prudent to keep a petrol engined car going. Just in case, y'know?

[mick holmwood]

Surely the best way to go is hybrid,for electric you need power stations.

how come we dont have diesel hybrid,also only diesels are really any good for towing.

[FROSTYBALLS]

PSA tried diesel hybrids - sales were disappointing and are being discontinued.

[Countrylad]

25 years maybe - 8 years, no chance. There are too many issues to even list them all - although the 200 mile range limit will make them useless for long distances, and we're 15-20 years away from a Battery that will do a better job than the one we've got now. And how would pure EV plug-ins cope with peak flows?

So it's bank holiday Friday, and you've stopped off at the recharging station on the M6 so as to start the second half of your journey up to the Lake District. And there's a queue of 8,000 vehicles waiting for 800 charging points @ 45 minutes each. (That's seven and a half hours, BTW.) And there's no point in the government building more chargers, because on a normal day they wouldn't need that many all at once.

You're gonna love that, especially if you've got a plane to catch. Whoops, but maybe planes will run on batteries too?  Yeah, right.

But the real issue is about how the electricity grid will cope. If even fifty people in your road buy a pure EV, they're probably going to have to re-cable the road to take the peak strain. If 1,000 people in your substation area buy one, they'll need to replace the transformers with chunkier kit. And so on, through the regional substations and right back to the pylons themselves.

It can be done, certainly, but nobody's going to accept that kind of an infrastructure budget. Nope, sorry, hybrid is the way to go.....

[vivalacoulter]

Mercedes still make diesel hybrids don't they?

I can totally see the future being electric vehicles. I'd love a Tesla 3 when they come out.

[Cyker]

There is one big logistical problem all these Soon All Cars Will Be Electric Cars! people seem to forget - Where the blimmin heck is everyone supposed to charge them?

To own an electric car you realistically need a house with at least a driveway if not a garage.

The last point alone will limit the number of people who can logistically own an electric-only car, because without that, you'll be wasting hours of your life every week, maybe even day, waiting for them to charge every day at a charge point, maybe even more probably because so many other drivers are also queuing for them.

Around here maybe one in 10 houses have a driveway or garage, and this is quite a low density part of London. Further in it's rammed up terraced houses that don't even have space for a front windowbox never mind a driveway. I can't see how such households could practically charge an electric car.

On top of that, even where there is space for a driveway, there's a frankly disgusting trend where the local councils have been increasingly preventing people from converting their front gardens into driveways. I suspect this is linked to the fact they have realised they can turn streets into a CPZ for extra captive revenue, and having a driveway would stop them doing that. (It turns out the whole street attending the consultation and saying "No, we don't want this" has no sway on the decision. Ah, isn't democracy great?)

Additionally, I bet if significant electric car adoption occurs they *will* find a way to levy a fuel tax on electricity, maybe mandate you can only use public charge points, or home charge points have meters attached, or just stick an additional Electric Vehicle levy on everyones household electricity bills (But not business ones, oh no, we can't tax businesses because it will stunt growth!).

Or if they can't figure out a way to put a fuel tax electricity, they'll start penalising electric cars to try and claw back tax revenue, like they are with diesels now.

So yeah, maybe ICE's won't die off as fast as some people think...

(Plus when the Zombie Apocalypse comes, my car of choice is definitely an old Volvo diesel car! )

 

[mickburkesnr]

1 hour ago, Countrylad said:

25 years maybe - 8 years, no chance. There are too many issues to even list them all - although the 200 mile range limit will make them useless for long distances, and we're 15-20 years away from a battery that will do a better job than the one we've got now. And how would pure EV plug-ins cope with peak flows?

So it's bank holiday Friday, and you've stopped off at the recharging station on the M6 so as to start the second half of your journey up to the Lake District. And there's a queue of 8,000 vehicles waiting for 800 charging points @ 45 minutes each. (That's seven and a half hours, BTW.) And there's no point in the government building more chargers, because on a normal day they wouldn't need that many all at once.

You're gonna love that, especially if you've got a plane to catch. Whoops, but maybe planes will run on batteries too?  Yeah, right.

But the real issue is about how the electricity grid will cope. If even fifty people in your road buy a pure EV, they're probably going to have to re-cable the road to take the peak strain. If 1,000 people in your substation area buy one, they'll need to replace the transformers with chunkier kit. And so on, through the regional substations and right back to the pylons themselves.

It can be done, certainly, but nobody's going to accept that kind of an infrastructure budget. Nope, sorry, hybrid is the way to go.....

This is exactly the reason why, in reality, electric cars are only good for inner city driving. If you need to go anywhere else you're going to struggle. And your examples are based on brand new electric cars. What about after even 2 years the capacity of the batteries your car has starts to suffer? Anyone with an iPhone or laptop knows that struggle of trying to get it last anywhere near where it used to be.

In my personal opinion, hydrogen cars developed by Honda are going to be the future. The issue there is, obviously, hydrogen production. But you won't have the range anxiety you get with electric cars, you won't get the pressure on a creaking electrical infrastructure (in the UK at least), and the emissions it gives out is going to be H2O. Water, basically. And all that water will be used to create more hydrogen.

[FROSTYBALLS]

"In my personal opinion, hydrogen cars developed by Honda are going to be the future. The issue there is, obviously, hydrogen production."

Not only Honda, but Toyota (Mirai) and Hyundai (ix35), etc

[mickburkesnr]

Didn't know Toyota and Hyundai were also on that bandwagon

[FROSTYBALLS]

Toyota are also experimenting with a fuel cell truck in the US and next year will have fuel cell buses running in Tokyo:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-project-portal-hydrogen-fuel-cell-commercial-truck/

 

[Catlover]

EV's to rule the world in 8 years time - I dont think so. Sure technology is rampaging forward in the EV development but to say there will be no petrol (and I assume diesel cars) in 8 years is, IMO, nonsense - for many of the reasons already pointed out. I am certain that there will be a lot of EV on the road in the next 8 years. Batteries will be smaller, technology will be that they charge quicker, lots of development for sure - just wish I was a youngster in one of these work places where development is taking place, very exciting.

Apart from anything else, Nicola Sturgeon will scupper it all, she needs oil revenue for Scottish independence, so EV ruling the world - no chance.

 

[Heidfirst]

5 hours ago, Catlover said:

Apart from anything else, Nicola Sturgeon will scupper it all, she needs oil revenue for Scottish independence, so EV ruling the world - no chance.

apart from the Nicola bit that is basically what the Sunday Times said this weekend -  the UK Exchequer takes in £27 billion per annum from road fuel taxes & would need to replace that ...

[Anthony Poli]

10 hours ago, vivalacoulter said:

Mercedes still make diesel hybrids don't they?

I can totally see the future being electric vehicles. I'd love a Tesla 3 when they come out.

I also would love a Tesla, just need to find a suitcase full of money  

[Cyker]

Well the Tesla3s will be a lot cheaper than the S - I believe they are aiming for the price to be below the 2nd Penalty Tax point so they'd be one of the few decent cars that are still £0 tax if they can!

I'll have to wait longer alas, until they make something more Yaris Mk1-sized!

 

[Countrylad]

Hmmm, I found myself sitting behind a Tesla S the other day. It took me a while to figure out what was so strange about it? No exhaust pipes!

My techie friends tell me that the biggest issue with electric cars' energy use is the wind drag, and not the road surface drag as I'd always supposed. In principle, an EV can get by with a stupidly small amount of electricity (about a quarter of a kilowatt-hour), but once you get past the initial rolling resistance, the drag increases by the square of the speed. Toyota's wind drag performance ain't bad - I think the Prius has a cd of 26, the Auris 27. Dang it, even the Tesla S only manages 24!

[mickburkesnr]

43 minutes ago, Countrylad said:

Hmmm, I found myself sitting behind a Tesla S the other day.

This happened to me a month ago. I can't tell you how good it felt to over take him in my 19 year old Corolla.

Take that progress!