And it's Goodbye from me

[thecaretaker]

After being a very happy (and loyal) Prius owner for near on 8 years (Gen3 and Gen4), I have retired now and have decided to become a full EV car owner which will meet my requirements for 95% of the time (I do very low mileage these days and I've only clocked up 9000 miles on my Gen 4 Prius). Unfortunately, it looks like Toyota is possibly 2-3 years away from releasing their first all electric vehicles, so I have placed an order for a new 40kHz Nissan Leaf. There is currently a 5 month lead-in time due to their popularity. 

I'd like to thank everyone on this forum for your help and support. I hope you found my input useful too.

[FROSTYBALLS]

Best wishes

[BhxTrev]

Hi Paul,

I've been thinking the same! I'm retired & do just over 9,000 miles like you these days. I'm very interested in an EV & I guess the Nissan Leaf with the larger Battery would suite my purposes, admirably. I've always appreciated the reliability of my Toyotas & the Gen 4 Prius Excel I've had for the last couple of years, has been a great motor. However, how short sighted could Toyota be not to realise that EVs really are the future. Even if they decide to produce EVs in the future, they're so far behind the competition, even in Japan, that it's hard to see that they could compete now. Shame really because I've always been impressed with the build quality & excellent reliability of the Toyota marque, that it does make me wonder who the hell has made what potentially is a bad decision not to invest in EVs much earlier, when it was blatantly obvious that that was going to be the future? 

[thecaretaker]

13 minutes ago, BhxTrev said:

Hi Paul,

I've been thinking the same! I'm retired & do just over 9,000 miles like you these days. I'm very interested in an EV & I guess the Nissan Leaf with the larger battery would suite my purposes, admirably. I've always appreciated the reliability of my Toyotas & the Gen 4 Prius Excel I've had for the last couple of years, has been a great motor. However, how short sighted could Toyota be not to realise that EVs really are the future. Even if they decide to produce EVs in the future, they're so far behind the competition, even in Japan, that it's hard to see that they could compete now. Shame really because I've always been impressed with the build quality & excellent reliability of the Toyota marque, that it does make me wonder who the hell has made what potentially is a bad decision not to invest in EVs much earlier, when it was blatantly obvious that that was going to be the future? 

I wonder how many Hybrid owners will do as I've done as EV becomes more mainstream. I guess for some it will be a logical move.

In my neck of the woods, in my own town and the next largest town, the Toyota and Nissan main dealers are run by the same company and where I purchased mine, both are situated on the same site and share the parking. I am sure it helped with the PX rate that I got for my Prius.

[Byzii]

1 hour ago, BhxTrev said:

I've always appreciated the reliability of my Toyotas & the Gen 4 Prius Excel I've had for the last couple of years, has been a great motor. However, how short sighted could Toyota be not to realise that EVs really are the future. Even if they decide to produce EVs in the future, they're so far behind the competition, even in Japan, that it's hard to see that they could compete now. Shame really because I've always been impressed with the build quality & excellent reliability of the Toyota marque, that it does make me wonder who the hell has made what potentially is a bad decision not to invest in EVs much earlier, when it was blatantly obvious that that was going to be the future? 

I wouldn't say that's a bad thing though. By the same measurement the vast majority of car manufacturers are also so far behind there's no point in even competing.

Truth be told EV is still a laughably small market. In most countries they're so expensive people can't even look at them straight, not to mention the lack of infrastructure, the lack of support since it's a new technology, etc.

Also consider that Toyota aren't your usual run-of-the-mill manufacturer, the reason they're so reliable and top quality is because they invest huge amounts of time to perfect something.

Sure, sometimes there is a slip-up but compared to other manufacturers, Toyota is a completely trouble-free brand. Just to imagine how many problems there are with VAG engines, always..

[Heidfirst]

2 hours ago, Byzii said:

Truth be told EV is still a laughably small market.

To give you an idea, Nissan in 2017 sold under 17,000 Leafs (Leaves? 😛) in the whole of Europe. Toyota sold 12,000 Yaris hybrids (& another 11k Auris hybrids, another 11k CHR hybrids etc. etc.). in the UK alone in 2017.

[FROSTYBALLS]

5 hours ago, BhxTrev said:

However, how short sighted could Toyota be not to realise that EVs really are the future. Even if they decide to produce EVs in the future, they're so far behind the competition, even in Japan, that it's hard to see that they could compete now.

Toyota had two generations of the Rav4 EV, which were built mainly for California. Extract from Wikipedia:

The RAV4 EV was an all-electric version of the popular Rav4 SUV produced by Toyota. Two generations of the EV model were sold in California, and to fleets elsewhere in the USA, with a gap of almost ten years between them.

The first generation was leased from 1997 to 2003, and at the lessees' request, many units were sold after the vehicle was discontinued. A total of 1,484 were leased and/or sold in California to meet the state’s mandate for zer0-emissions vehicles. A small number were sold or leased in fleet sales in other states. As of mid-2012, there were almost 500 units still in use in California. Production of the second generation EV was limited to 2,600 units during a three-year run, with sales limited to California beginning in 2012. Production ended in September 2014. A total of 2,489 units of the second generation model were sold in California through April 2015.

Toyota worked together with  Tesla Motors to develop the second generation RAV4 EV, and the electric SUV was released in the United States in September 2012. The US Enviromnmental Protection Agency rated the second generation RAV4 EV with a combined range of 103 mi (166 km) and a combined fuel economy rating of 76 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (3.1 L/100 km).

Also see;  https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/18/toyota-to-make-over-10-battery-ev-models-in-early-2020s.html

Toyota are also looking fuel cell technology - with the Mirai, their first and second generation fuel cell trucks which entered testing at a Port Authority in the US, and the Toyota Sora fuel cell bus that began limited production this year. 

[thecaretaker]

1 hour ago, Heidfirst said:

To give you an idea, Nissan in 2017 sold under 17,000 Leafs (Leaves? 😛) in the whole of Europe. Toyota sold 12,000 Yaris hybrids (& another 11k Auris hybrids, another 11k CHR hybrids etc. etc.). in the UK alone in 2017.

That was based on the original Leaf. The new 2018 model Leaf 2, Nissan says they have sold 37,000 cars in 8 months in Europe. I don't know if any of these buyers were hybrid owners.

[FROSTYBALLS]

14 minutes ago, thecaretaker said:

Nissan says they have sold 37,000 cars in 8 months in Europe

Figures I've seen suggest 935 have been first registered in the UK  this year (though not sure which month that is up to) - which would presumably include demonstrators, etc.

I've seen one in the Birmingham area (belonging to the owner of a local nail salon), despite living within two miles of Nissan's main Birmingham dealership.

[altocumulus]

If the RAV4 EV had been released in the UK, we might have been very tempted. But out in the rural sticks of Scotland it's not that sensible to think in terms of an EV - not even with all the free to use chargers! Like you most of our journeys are low mileage, but now and again we feel the need for that extra distance that an EV would be hard to accommodate without serious journey planning.

 

We don't do many miles a year these days, averaging just about 5-6K a year - you'll enjoy retirement!!!!!

[Harters]

I have done the opposite and traded in my Renault Zoe EV for my Gen 4 Prius. 

I only do a small number of miles a year too, approx 7,000, but once the fun and novelty of driving an EV wore off, I found it quite tiring always having to plan ahead and think about charging.  It was exacerbated due to it being the main car as my partner only has an MX-5 so is not as practical.

I may go back to an EV in the future, but not any time soon as I am enjoying my Prius too much and like that I can just jump into it anytime I like and go for a long unexpected trip knowing I can get fuel anywhere at the drop of a hat.  Although I charged at home say 90% of the time, when I did using the public chargers I encountered so many issues.

I wish you well and hope you enjoy the Leaf, which I have to say does look very good 😀

[Parts-King]

13 hours ago, BhxTrev said:

Hi Paul,

I've been thinking the same! I'm retired & do just over 9,000 miles like you these days. I'm very interested in an EV & I guess the Nissan Leaf with the larger battery would suite my purposes, admirably. I've always appreciated the reliability of my Toyotas & the Gen 4 Prius Excel I've had for the last couple of years, has been a great motor. However, how short sighted could Toyota be not to realise that EVs really are the future. Even if they decide to produce EVs in the future, they're so far behind the competition, even in Japan, that it's hard to see that they could compete now. Shame really because I've always been impressed with the build quality & excellent reliability of the Toyota marque, that it does make me wonder who the hell has made what potentially is a bad decision not to invest in EVs much earlier, when it was blatantly obvious that that was going to be the future? 

Toyota have far from lost sight of the future, they are at the forefront of technology, just not what everyone else is doing. The Toyota mantra for some 20 odd years has been to produce cars with zero emissions, but at that time, the only way forward was Hybrid for which they are now mainstream. I was lucky enough to talk to the UK chap in charge of the Mirai Hydrogen project, what an exciting future that is. Imagine being a fuel station owner now, having to buy your fuel from a refinery and paying the going rate. Roll on a few years (available now but not mainstream) and you will find your local petrol station making their own Hydrogen on site. Not tied to any fuel manufacturer, making your own fuel from electricity and water, now that truly is the future, and it's not far away either, all we need is the vehicles to be built at much lower costs, the fuel stations are coming, more and more added each year. When we have cars buses and lorries on Hydrogen it will take off massively, the only trouble then is taxation, there is currently no tax on zero emissions, imagine what will happen when zero emission vehicles become the mainstream?  

[altocumulus]

Indeed, there's going to have to be a reckoning on the current road charges. There are a few coaches in Aberdeen that run on hydrogen - I haven't read of any issues with them, and yet they're not more common!

If EV cars are to be successful, the manufacturers need to communicate on a standard and have a Battery replacement system that allows a driver to pull up at a service station and swop one Battery for another!

[Notoyboy]

4 minutes ago, altocumulus said:

If EV cars are to be successful, the manufacturers need to communicate on a standard and have a battery replacement system that allows a driver to pull up at a service station and swop one battery for another!

I think the problem with Battery swapping is their size and weight, apart from the need for some "standardisation"

[QuantumFireball]

Battery swapping has been tried and doesn't really work - handling such heavy Battery packs causes a lot of wear and tear, not something you want when dealing with high voltages and volatile chemistry.

Battery charging is constantly getting faster. Once it's down to <10 minutes for a full charge then the inconvenience of BEVs will no longer be an issue. It'll happen eventually (though not necessarily for home charging, due to amount of power required), but I don't know how soon.

I don't think hydrogen fuel cells is ever going to happen for normal passenger cars, mainly down to the infrastructure. Hydrogen storage is expensive, and production requires a lot of energy - it's more efficient for the lecky to go directly into your car than use it to produce hydrogen. There's not a single publicly available hydrogen station in my country, whereas there are hundreds of public EV chargers around, and if I'm really stuck I can charge (slowly) from pretty much any residential or commercial premises in the country. And the Mirai has a range that's no better than the top end Teslas (around 300 miles).

[Parts-King]

1 minute ago, QuantumFireball said:

Battery swapping has been tried and doesn't really work - handling such heavy battery packs causes a lot of wear and tear, not something you want when dealing with high voltages and volatile chemistry.

Battery charging is constantly getting faster. Once it's down to <10 minutes for a full charge then the inconvenience of BEVs will no longer be an issue. It'll happen eventually (though not necessarily for home charging, due to amount of power required), but I don't know how soon.

I don't think hydrogen fuel cells is ever going to happen for normal passenger cars, mainly down to the infrastructure. Hydrogen storage is expensive, and production requires a lot of energy - it's more efficient for the lecky to go directly into your car than use it to produce hydrogen. There's not a single publicly available hydrogen station in my country, whereas there are hundreds of public EV chargers around, and if I'm really stuck I can charge (slowly) from pretty much any residential or commercial premises in the country. And the Mirai has a range that's no better than the top end Teslas (around 300 miles).

Like everything else, range will be improved, Hydrogen is here in the UK and more stations are planned. The Police are taking Mirai because they need to reduce their carbon footprint in London, EV are no good to them, the cars are hot swapped and cannot wait for charging to take place. When the supermarkets can see an opportunity to MAKE and sell Hydrogen AND make money they will be on it, then you will see production expand. Toyota have released all the patents for fuel cell technology so it can be expanded and improved, it is here, it is not going away. I for one am quite excited by it...can you tell? lol as I was with Hybrid in 1997, look where that is now

 

 

[Heidfirst]

11 hours ago, thecaretaker said:

That was based on the original Leaf. The new 2018 model Leaf 2, Nissan says they have sold 37,000 cars in 8 months in Europe. I don't know if any of these buyers were hybrid owners.

The figures I have says ~ 21,000 to the end of August - however, that I believe is actual registrations (i.e. real, physical cars) so there will be orders  in hand but not yet delivered. They were registering about 3k per month with 1 month of 6k in the Spring which presumably included a lot of dealers getting demonstrators.

[Heidfirst]

3 hours ago, altocumulus said:

Indeed, there's going to have to be a reckoning on the current road charges. There are a few coaches in Aberdeen that run on hydrogen - I haven't read of any issues with them, and yet they're not more common!

More than a few coaches https://news.aberdeencity.gov.uk/refuelling-station-launched-as-aberdeen-leads-the-way-in-hydrogen-technology/

[kithmo]

One problem with the Mirai was the initial purchase price and government taxation on more expensive cars.

 

[altocumulus]

5 minutes ago, Heidfirst said:

More than a few coaches https://news.aberdeencity.gov.uk/refuelling-station-launched-as-aberdeen-leads-the-way-in-hydrogen-technology/

I fear we may be in danger of hijacking this thread - but

The facility in Cove, which began serving motorists in April, was initially estimated to be used by an average of one bus and 10 vans every day.

However, a freedom of information request has shown that uptake has stalled, with just 1.7 council vans or cars using the site daily on average during its first five months in service – and no buses whatsoever.

Currently the city council has ownership of 10 hydrogen cars and four vans – two of which are diesel hybrids.

[wass]

Like some others on this forum, I am not entirely convinced that Toyota is so far behind everyone with EV tech. Their hybrid program has included nearly all if not all technologies require to build a totally electrical car. They have one of the most slippery bodyshells on the current prius and this includes quite wide tyres and a radiator grille-( both items known to cause drag). They have electrical motors able to power the car along, they have kinetic Battery recharging technology, electrical power control technology, charging technology and Battery technology and mass production experience. Putting a Toyota next to any one of its EV competitors highlights their competitors weakness. Nissan , for example are only successful with small cars with big batteries. Tesla have cracked the range, power and Battery issue but the cost of the tech is astronomical.Renault have fallen rather short of the mark made by Nissan but have also gone along the route of putting big batteries into a small car. Nearly everyone else is trying to use their petrol engined chassis as a lack lustre EV or hybrid. Only BMW have really had a good go at things but their very space efficient I3 is a bit of a draggy little lump at cd 0.29. My impression is that for the time being , Toyota are keeping their powder dry whilst battery and motor technology slowly improves to the point where producing a vehicle which will carry 4 persons and their baggage 300miles between fuel ups ( charges ) is commonplace and affordable.

[Catlover]

When a Toyota pure EV is produced I reckon it will be a good un, that's what Toyota do.

[thecaretaker]

A year on and I'm loving the Leaf although I confess the build quality and handling isn't a patch on my Prius. Interesting reading the older comments in my original post and wondering if peoples views about BEVs have changed at all?

Still no BEV in Europe from Toyota although they have said they will have a BEV in 2020 and 10 models by 2025. Toyota pushed forward their plans to have a BEV from their initial 2030 date.

Toyota have turned to China to make their first BEV and currently a version of the C-HR is available in China. Toyota feel that China are one of the fastest growing markets for BEV's. I'm guessing this will be the first model exported to Europe. I have not seen any details about Battery size or range.

According to ZapMap, Electric Charging station locations now outnumber petrol stations, so the infrastructure is getting better plus 90% of the time you charge overnight from home. As for standardisation, a new government rule has (or will) force charging companies to make all chargers take credit/debit card payments. The two common standards covering fast charging are the Japanese CHAdeMO and the European CCS Combo systems. 

Something to keep in mind for the future is the UK government ban of new petrol and diesels in 2040. Many owners are trying to trade in their dirty diesels for Hybrids (often buying Toyota) and residual prices for diesel cars are dropping fast. But something to keep in mind is that ban may also include some Hybrids. Although the government has confirmed that hybrid cars will be excluded from its 2040 ban on petrol and diesel car sales, the small print says that they must come under the category of ultra-low-emissions vehicles (ULEV). This means they must produce less than 75g/km of CO2. Even the Toyota Prius currently produces 84g/km of CO2 and most other Hybrids from other manufacturers don't come anywhere near that figure. Only a handful of Plug-in Hybrids currently meet this requirement. So as we creep closer to that date, values of second hand Hybrids could do the same as diesel are doing now. There is also the possibility that the 2040 date is bought forward to 2035 or even 2030 as in some other countries.

I am a Toyota fanboy and I really hope that Toyota gets its act together and starts producing a BEV for Europe pretty soon. An all electric Prius would be fantastic but I can't see that happening anytime soon. Most BEVs are standard steel construction, so with heavy batteries are very heavy cars. If Toyota made a BEV similar to the Prius with Aluminium body parts, it could prove extremely economical with a longer range than its competitors.

I know it was an old slogan, but I remain sceptical that 'The Car in Front is still a Toyota'. 

[FROSTYBALLS]

China originally introduced legislation requiring manufacturers to introduce BEV's by a stated date, which was why the priority for Toyota and other manufacturers was China. Thiis has now been changed in favour of hybrids.

Lexus will be introducing a BEV in Europe and China in 2020 - 

 

[johalareewi]

There may be more EV charging stations than petrol stations but you don't often find petrol stations that are broken or blocked or only work with app x or card y.  And you can refuel in minutes not hours.  I am so glad i have a plugin hybrid and not a bev.  So is the mrs.