EU trying to ban PHEV’s from 2025….

[Cyker]

Huh, impressive they're the only real growth in what's been a general decline. It's a shame they don't have a breakdown of what those cars are as I'd like to see that - The ones I see most are Tesla and VW ID3's but no way can those account for so many. Tesla isn't even on the manufacturer chart!

Because that is a graph of registrations and not sales, I'm slightly suspicious a lot of those are manufacturer-registered to get their fleet CO2 levels down to avoid fines.

[Mike2222]

On 6/2/2022 at 2:42 PM, Cyker said:

there were no massive grants to buy a diesel - People just did it because they had clear real-world advantages, clear merits, whereas the first hybrids and now EVs and PHEVs all had to have grants to persuade people to buy them (And even these grants have been pulled or greatly reduced) and even then people didn't buy them in anywhere near the numbers that bought diesels did.

EVs just need to be better, really better, before people will flock to them like they did with diesels

They need to be cheaper, not necessarily better (tho I'm not saying they can't/shouldn't be trying to improve the current status quo). 

 

You reference the rapid take-up of diesels, but the comparison is unfair as they cost roughly the same as petrol engined cars (usually a small premium), and/or had financial benefits in terms of running costs or taxation that made them a more appealing overall package vs the petrol model of the same car. This relative cost parity vs the current situation with EVs was largely because the manufacturers did not need to spend billions on R&D for almost all aspects of the drive train, new manufacturing/assembly processes, and raw materials acquisition (which largely cannot be done in-house, at least initially, for EVs/battery tech). Yes, emissions regulations have increased these diesel development costs subsequently, and are likely to kill most diesel models off eventually in Europe, but these are/have been incremental changes on decades of engineering knowledge and manufacturing capability, and thus have been incremental cost increases.

 

Incentives were not needed, because there has never been a colossal price disparity between petrol & diesel models at the point of purchase. 

 

Let's be honest, who in their right minds "needed" a teeny 3-door diesel runaround, like a Citroën C1, Fiat 500, Nissan Micra, Ford Ka, etc etc?!? The use-case for that type of vehicle is incredibly limited, so most will have been mis-sold, with salesman spouting the aforementioned financial arguments, but without mentioning that as a short-journey runaround, it will never achieve vaguely close to these MPGs, be horribly polluting, and knacker the DPF for an expensive problem down the line. (off top of my head, the only use-case I can think that makes sense is perhaps a uni student who needs to commute home every wknd, ie cannot afford a different model of car, and might have a hope in hell of making up the price difference to the equivalent petrol).

 

Almost all small cars "should" [pinch of salt] be EVs (or perhaps petrol REx-EVs), if initial costs were similar. But they're not, so they aren't, and they won't be for some time. 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Mike2222
Added REx-EVs thought

[Mike2222]

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show

 

New problem to throw into the mix! I knew this was a theoretical problem, but I hadn't seen any measurements/numbers before. BEVs/PHEVs are certainly heavier than their ICE counterparts, like for like, tho the SUV trend was well underway (and so general lardiness of modern car ranges) well before the last few years explosion in plug in sales. 

 

As article says, don't know how much could be improved by tighter tyre manufacturer regulation, considering the volume of cheap Chinese [other questionably regulated manufacturing nations are available] ditch-finders tho. ie whether BEV + better tyres is better than modern ICE + better tyres, rather than simply saying "BEVs are on average heavier than ICEs so let's ditch them and carry on with status quo of tyres".

[Cyker]

6 hours ago, Mike2222 said:

They need to be cheaper, not necessarily better (tho I'm not saying they can't/shouldn't be trying to improve the current status quo). 

You reference the rapid take-up of diesels, but the comparison is unfair as they cost roughly the same as petrol engined cars (usually a small premium), and/or had financial benefits in terms of running costs or taxation that made them a more appealing overall package vs the petrol model of the same car. This relative cost parity vs the current situation with EVs was largely because the manufacturers did not need to spend billions on R&D for almost all aspects of the drive train, new manufacturing/assembly processes, and raw materials acquisition (which largely cannot be done in-house, at least initially, for EVs/battery tech). Yes, emissions regulations have increased these diesel development costs subsequently, and are likely to kill most diesel models off eventually in Europe, but these are/have been incremental changes on decades of engineering knowledge and manufacturing capability, and thus have been incremental cost increases.

 

Incentives were not needed, because there has never been a colossal price disparity between petrol & diesel models at the point of purchase. 

 

You say that, but at the time people and journos were all talking about how much more expensive diesels cost than petrols, making a big thing of it and whether the premium was worth it, often trying to show how you'd have to own the car for x years for it to make back the extra cost over a petrol car. Also maintenance, with naysayers touting the turbo as being a potentially major issue (Which turned out to be mostly false, as that knowledge was based on petrol turbos, which are far more failure prone than diesel ones)

That was seen as a major down-side to diesels and a big argument against them by anti-diesel people, but people still bought them en masse.

The thing is, if someone's buying a new car, the cost is not going to be as big a factor as it would be for someone who buys a secondhand car - If it was, they'd be buying a second hand car. (Well, this isn't necessarily true right now because we're in some bizzaro alternate univers right now but if/when the second hand market becomes sane again then it will??!!)

 

6 hours ago, Mike2222 said:

Let's be honest, who in their right minds "needed" a teeny 3-door diesel runaround, like a Citroën C1, Fiat 500, Nissan Micra, Ford Ka, etc etc?!? The use-case for that type of vehicle is incredibly limited, so most will have been mis-sold, with salesman spouting the aforementioned financial arguments, but without mentioning that as a short-journey runaround, it will never achieve vaguely close to these MPGs, be horribly polluting, and knacker the DPF for an expensive problem down the line. (off top of my head, the only use-case I can think that makes sense is perhaps a uni student who needs to commute home every wknd, ie cannot afford a different model of car, and might have a hope in hell of making up the price difference to the equivalent petrol).

 

Almost all small cars "should" [pinch of salt] be EVs (or perhaps petrol REx-EVs), if initial costs were similar. But they're not, so they aren't, and they won't be for some time. 

I think that's a bit disingenuous - Just because a car is small doesn't mean it's only for city use - That is the current narrative being touted, and sure that'd be the expected majority use for it, but I bet loads of people on this forum have Aygos and Yarisusuesis who do long journeys semi regularly.

My cars have always been multi-purpose - I don't have one car for driving in the city, one car for motorway use, one car for camping etc; Just one that does it all.

My Mk1 Yaris was capable of going over 600  miles on a tank and we'd regularly go to events all over the place in it with a car full of people and boot full of gear (Back when I wasn't an old person  ). I would have just laughed if someone suggested I should rent a car to goto an air show that was 3-4 hours drive away or whatever because the Yaris was 'supposed' to be a 'city car'.

The irony with EVs is they can't make truly small cars EVs at the moment - There just isn't enough space for a Battery that isn't a joke. When you look at how much e.g. the Honda E or the Fiat 500 EV are vs their utility it just doesn't work; The best ones are probably the Zoe and Corsa atm but the Corsa is massive, into C-segment size and the Zoe is even more cramped than an Aygo despite being larger. The cost just doesn't justify the utility. The only kind of person who would even think of getting one of these is some combination of someone who has money and wants to show how Eco-conscious they are, can charge at home and/or really really doesn't need to drive very far regularly, in which case I'd suggest they would have been better of with public transport or some sort of powered mobility device like a scooter or ebike.

This is why the takeup has increased with the bigger cars which have more utility, but hasn't filtered down so much to the smaller cars. Smaller cars are also much less attractive to manufacturers as the consumer perception is they should be cheaper than big cars, but with EVs especially, the packaging is much harder for a small car than a big car so it costs more to design and make but they can't charge as much money for them than a bigger car.

 

[Mike2222]

15 hours ago, Cyker said:

I think that's a bit disingenuous

Yes, it is, tho only as much as stating that all EVs are cr@p, or similar blanket statements. I understand your point(s) and I think you understand mine, tho as prev mentioned, these discussions are inherently more nuanced than can be easily portrayed in Internet (or even conversational) discussions, without being so long and detailed as to stray into lecture hall diatribe/filibuster territory! 

 

If one had to boil down the psychological approach of each side of the argument, on a "punter-on-the-street" level, it largely comes down to whether you agree that the *future* of ICE technology is (or should be) dead on health/environmental reasons, then it is only a matter of agreeing a timescale to accept a swap over to the new technology in its current state (or whatever level of advancement had been achieved by the agreed time). Or whether you do not subscribe to this and so believe it should be sustained indefinitely in some form or other. I don't accept the NIMBY-type argument of, "you can do all that when I'm dead/no longer have a vested interest in driving". 

 

For my part I gravitate toward the former, and feel the collective emphasis should be on looking earnestly for ways to leave ICE tech behind, at all levels if possible. However I am not so blinded by this to realise that individuals make decisions largely based on personal factors (finances usually being most significant), with societal/public good usually coming secondary (ie the saying "all politics is local"), and that such a step could have significant or unforeseen consequences on a wider scale (eg shipping - to the best of my knowledge, there is currently zero regulation on the engine tech or emissions from sea-going vessels, and the black smog emitting from their exhaust chimenys in many cases if from engines which have been operational for decades!). 

 

However, the industry narratives about what personal vehicles should be used for/capable of that you allude to, are a very interesting topic to observe and speculate on motivations for/about. Particularly watching those narratives shift as EV tech becomes a larger part of their bottom line! (I also agree with you that the small car has generally been maligned by manufacturers falsely, even before the advent of EVs, due largely to their being significantly smaller profit margins, despite there being a healthy desire amongst the consumer base for cars of this type). 

[AJones]

18 hours ago, Cyker said:

The irony with EVs is they can't make truly small cars EVs at the moment - There just isn't enough space for a battery that isn't a joke. When you look at how much e.g. the Honda E or the Fiat 500 EV are vs their utility it just doesn't work; The best ones are probably the Zoe and Corsa atm but the Corsa is massive, into C-segment size and the Zoe is even more cramped than an Aygo despite being larger. The cost just doesn't justify the utility. The only kind of person who would even think of getting one of these is some combination of someone who has money and wants to show how Eco-conscious they are, can charge at home and/or really really doesn't need to drive very far regularly, in which case I'd suggest they would have been better of with public transport or some sort of powered mobility device like a scooter or ebike.

The market for new cars is around 1.5M new cars each year, that's 1.5M drivers all with different requirements, situations, locations, budgets. That particular EV designs do not appeal to you, or work for your situation doesn't mean the same applies to everyone else.

There's large areas of the country where public transport isn't viable for many journeys and for people wanting a smaller car, zero emission so doing their bit for the planet and local air quality, used mostly for shorter trips then those smaller EVs work and are attractive, they must do because the manufacturers are producing them and there's people queuing up to buy them and that's the only real test, will people buy them and they are.

[Marcusthehat]

Has nobody mentioned Toyotas recent success with their solid state Battery, to be used in their hybrid vehicles(at first, due to very high production costs) and the implications for genuine range-anxity free BEV's(which will also preform better in low temperatures due to their different chemistry, AND also I belive work better at high temps/require less cooling)

If the extremly poorly engineered 1.6 diesel Skoda(but it was BER DQ200 DSG transmissions issues that were her downfall) had lasted the planned 15  years/225,000 miles, i.e. to 2025 or 2026,

I would almost certainly have been planning to buy a BEV.

But I still intend to take 12 or 15 years out of the Rav4 Hybrid.

Marcus

[Nick72]

Well I've got a dilemma. My R4P is a company car. Same as a lease but with 33 percent off (BiK tax) and all inclusive (I pay nothing other than personal fuel... No wear and tear, no servicing, no insurance... business blanket policy). Personal fuel is next to nothing as most of my personal trips are on the currently 50 plus miles of EV range. When I use it for long business trips I make quite a few bob since it goes into the mileage reimbursement system as a 2.5 litre petrol. So, it's a really amazing arrangement financially speaking.

But alas it goes back in just over a couple of years and 6 months before that I need to order a new car. 3 years refresh.

Options are (I've mentioned this before here)...

1. Buy it off them at an auction price. 

2. Order another R4P (hopefully we get all the US goodies on it by then).

3. Get the Toyota BZ4XUZ EV? Not really impressed by the AWD acceleration nor the range but it may offer much less sensitivity to high speed driving and temperature than a lot of other EVs. Toyota seem to know what they're doing.

4. Get a RIVIAN R1T or S.

Needs to be large enough, AWD for my needs. 

Anything EV saves me a little more on the monthly cost in terms of BiK tax but I miss out on the business trip mileage reimbursement. So only a very slight financial advantage on the EV front assuming similar purchase value. I'm assuming the BZ4XYZABC thing will cost similar to the R4P. The RIVIAN probably 15k more so that is going to work out a lot more expensive per month.

I'm still not convinced we've done enough in the EV infrastructure. I'd really loathe stressing about whether I can make the end of leg 1 of a 250 mile business trip in winter in one go or be faffing around searching for chargers that are full or broke. It is getting better and I'm constantly doing recce at the services to see how the EV owners are getting on. They're usually full but at least there's no queuing cars like there was before covid, in my limited experience.

It's a really tough call. Plus we had a power cut the other day! And a few months ago couldn't get petrol. Sold out for a 10 mile radius. At least with the R4P I've got two fuel options. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ernieb]

5 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Well I've got a dilemma. My R4P is a company car. Same as a lease but with 33 percent off (BiK tax) and all inclusive (I pay nothing other than personal fuel... No wear and tear, no servicing, no insurance... business blanket policy). Personal fuel is next to nothing as most of my personal trips are on the currently 50 plus miles of EV range. When I use it for long business trips I make quite a few bob since it goes into the mileage reimbursement system as a 2.5 litre petrol. So, it's a really amazing arrangement financially speaking.

But alas it goes back in just over a couple of years and 6 months before that I need to order a new car. 3 years refresh.

Options are (I've mentioned this before here)...

1. Buy it off them at an auction price. 

2. Order another R4P (hopefully we get all the US goodies on it by then).

3. Get the Toyota BZ4XUZ EV? Not really impressed by the AWD acceleration nor the range but it may offer much less sensitivity to high speed driving and temperature than a lot of other EVs. Toyota seem to know what they're doing.

4. Get a RIVIAN R1T or S.

Needs to be large enough, AWD for my needs. 

Anything EV saves me a little more on the monthly cost in terms of BiK tax but I miss out on the business trip mileage reimbursement. So only a very slight financial advantage on the EV front assuming similar purchase value. I'm assuming the BZ4XYZABC thing will cost similar to the R4P. The RIVIAN probably 15k more so that is going to work out a lot more expensive per month.

I'm still not convinced we've done enough in the EV infrastructure. I'd really loathe stressing about whether I can make the end of leg 1 of a 250 mile business trip in winter in one go or be faffing around searching for chargers that are full or broke. It is getting better and I'm constantly doing recce at the services to see how the EV owners are getting on. They're usually full but at least there's no queuing cars like there was before covid, in my limited experience.

It's a really tough call. Plus we had a power cut the other day! And a few months ago couldn't get petrol. Sold out for a 10 mile radius. At least with the R4P I've got two fuel options. 

 

 

 

 

 

Tough call Nick, but right now I'd probably stick with another R4P until the dust hopefully settles on all that's hitting us right now.  The devil you know etc., and dual fuel options.

[philip42h]

3 hours ago, ernieb said:

Tough call Nick, but right now I'd probably stick with another R4P until the dust hopefully settles on all that's hitting us right now.  The devil you know etc., and dual fuel options.

It's not a tough call at all ... 🙂 ... Nick has a car that does the job he needs it to, that is eminently affordable (to him) and, by all accounts, that he quite likes. The obvious 'solution' is to have another one (as Ernie suggests). It's only for the next three years after all ...

I agree that an EV doesn't really yet meets the needs of the long distance company car driver - or, indeed, anyone who really needs to be able to complete long journeys confidently and to schedule. The cars are there or thereabouts - I'm thinking Ioniq 5, EV6  or maybe bZ4X - but the infrastructure isn't really there yet. It's perfectly possible to get a 200+ mile range but one needs to be certain of being able to recharge for the next 200+ miles within say 20 minutes. And I doubt that we are quite there yet.

Maybe things will improve markedly over the next three years but I'm not holding my breath. Nick may yet need another two RAV4 PHEVs ...

Of course, if Nick is bored with the dependable reliability of the RAV4 he could go with something more 'interesting' ... 😉

[ernieb]

Please don’t suggest a Peugeot as his likely to blow a fuse.

[Nick72]

7 hours ago, philip42h said:

It's not a tough call at all ... 🙂 ... Nick has a car that does the job he needs it to, that is eminently affordable (to him) and, by all accounts, that he quite likes. The obvious 'solution' is to have another one (as Ernie suggests). It's only for the next three years after all ...

I agree that an EV doesn't really yet meets the needs of the long distance company car driver - or, indeed, anyone who really needs to be able to complete long journeys confidently and to schedule. The cars are there or thereabouts - I'm thinking Ioniq 5, EV6  or maybe bZ4X - but the infrastructure isn't really there yet. It's perfectly possible to get a 200+ mile range but one needs to be certain of being able to recharge for the next 200+ miles within say 20 minutes. And I doubt that we are quite there yet.

Maybe things will improve markedly over the next three years but I'm not holding my breath. Nick may yet need another two RAV4 PHEVs ...

Of course, if Nick is bored with the dependable reliability of the RAV4 he could go with something more 'interesting' ... 😉

I'm erring towards another R4P. Hopefully with some upgrades in a couple of years. Would be nice to get the electronics in from the BZ4XYZABCEFG EV.

[ernieb]

1 hour ago, Nick72 said:

I'm erring towards another R4P. Hopefully with some upgrades in a couple of years. Would be nice to get the electronics in from the BZ4XYZABCEFG EV.

I doubt that will happen in 2 years there may be some upgrades but not major re-engineering or retooling.

[Hayzee]

1 minute ago, ernieb said:

I doubt that will happen in 2 years there may be some upgrades but not major re-engineering or retooling.

Ernie ...I think Toyota must improve the infotainment and connected services as these are already behind most of the comparable pack. Hoping they go the route of Volvo and use Google/Android. Apart from that I love my R4P more than any car before it and it's my first Toyota 😊

[ernieb]

Colin, yes I’d agree but I doubt that it would be the system that is being built into the BZ4x?

[Nick72]

3 hours ago, ernieb said:

I doubt that will happen in 2 years there may be some upgrades but not major re-engineering or retooling.

May need to switch to the Lexus version of the R4P. Not looked at that.

[Nick72]

3 hours ago, Hayzee said:

Ernie ...I think Toyota must improve the infotainment and connected services as these are already behind most of the comparable pack. Hoping they go the route of Volvo and use Google/Android. Apart from that I love my R4P more than any car before it and it's my first Toyota 😊

High Res reversing camera a must. 360 Deg camera highly desirable. High resolution larger infotainment display desirable. Heated steering wheel desirable. Better app with more functions desirable.

 

What else do you think?

[Lawnmowerman]

7 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

May need to switch to the Lexus version of the R4P. Not looked at that.

With only 3 dealerships in Scotland and the nearest 3 hours away it would be difficult to justify.

[NASY]

Sounds like Lexus would suit you. Much more shi shi than the RAV4. Lexus certainly takes you closer to the Landrover/Volvo feeling of being somewhat cosseted which the Toyota doesn't. I prefer the truck like RAV4 feel, more like a good wheel barrow than a Gucci shopping bag and the stereo works just fine, don't really get the 'infotainment' thing, just need good quality sound from Spotify and I certainly don't like touch screens. I see I have the same car as Lawnmowerman, share his view on the distance to get a Lexus serviced in Scotland too as that's what I used to have to do.

[Nick72]

56 minutes ago, Lawnmowerman said:

With only 3 dealerships in Scotland and the nearest 3 hours away it would be difficult to justify.

That would be a problem. Fortunately we have a combined lexus Toyota dealership only 5 miles away.

[Nick72]

21 minutes ago, NASY said:

Sounds like Lexus would suit you. Much more shi shi than the RAV4. Lexus certainly takes you closer to the Landrover/Volvo feeling of being somewhat cosseted which the Toyota doesn't. I prefer the truck like RAV4 feel, more like a good wheel barrow than a Gucci shopping bag and the stereo works just fine, don't really get the 'infotainment' thing, just need good quality sound from Spotify and I certainly don't like touch screens. I see I have the same car as Lawnmowerman, share his view on the distance to get a Lexus serviced in Scotland too as that's what I used to have to do.

I prefer the look and industrial nature of the RAV but would like an upgraded interior and infotainment. 

[Lawnmowerman]

37 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

That would be a problem. Fortunately we have a combined lexus Toyota dealership only 5 miles away.

Do the respective Toyota/Lexus customers get different treatment?

A long time ago I was After Sales Manager of a combined Rolls Royce / Bentley and Range Rover franchise. The Rolls / Bentley customers were brilliant but the Range Rover customers were the proverbial PITA. They always wanted the chauffeurs to collect their cars from their workplaces  to show how important they were. We had BMW's for Rolls/Bentley and Fords for the R/Rover customers as courtesy cars..

They ALWAYS wanted a BMW whilst the Rolls/Bentley drivers couldn't care a jot - a Fiesta would have suited them (I suppose they had nothing to prove).

[Nick72]

31 minutes ago, Lawnmowerman said:

Do the respective Toyota/Lexus customers get different treatment?

A long time ago I was After Sales Manager of a combined Rolls Royce / Bentley and Range Rover franchise. The Rolls / Bentley customers were brilliant but the Range Rover customers were the proverbial PITA. They always wanted the chauffeurs to collect their cars from their workplaces  to show how important they were. We had BMW's for Rolls/Bentley and Fords for the R/Rover customers as courtesy cars..

They ALWAYS wanted a BMW whilst the Rolls/Bentley drivers couldn't care a jot - a Fiesta would have suited them (I suppose they had nothing to prove).

Great story. I see imagine that.

I suspect the Lexus service team bend over backwards a little more but tbh our Toyota dealership has been first class for the 10 plus years we've used them. In fact they convinced the Lexus team and their transporter to add my R4P to it because I moaned about the Toyota transport being another 2 weeks away. Shipped up from the other end of the country.

 

[Nick72]

Ok I've found the answer if it is available in time. US units in 2023. 370 mile range. Sold.

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/polestar-shows-off-its-electric-suv-us-production-begins-in-2023/

[ernieb]

7 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Ok I've found the answer if it is available in time. US units in 2023. 370 mile range. Sold.

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/polestar-shows-off-its-electric-suv-us-production-begins-in-2023/

They do not say it's AWD so if it's only 2WD then that may not suit you??