Running out of Energy

[Bper]

Hi All,

If the price of energy continues to rise how on earth are electric vehicle owners going to be able to run their cars. If petrol prices remain fairly stable will they consider reverting back?

[FROSTYBALLS]

Moved to General Club Discussions.

[jcps001]

That is a good question...

But I really do not believe that we'll remain or "go back" to oil.

The fact is, cars pollute a lot, and to keep pollution down, the environmental systems mandated by law are affecting reliability of cars with internal combustion engines (which in turn increase their maintenance costs...).

It is also a fact that electric cars are zero emissions when they're used, however as you said, the cost  of the electricity required to charge them is increasing a lot.

Also, the price of the electric car Battery (which by itself makes up for 40% of the car value) is also increasing, in opposition to what was foreseen back in 2007-2010.

To note also that to produce an electric car Battery nowadays you pay a horrendous environmental cost (basically dig a huge hole on the ground, fill it up with water, and after getting the lithium, you leave it as it is, without any natural restoration or compensation for the huge damage caused).

If this was not enough, a car Battery degrades. And in optimal conditions, lasts about 10-15 years (which seems nice, Renault Zoe's batteries seem good, for example). However, to replace that battery, you will have to fork 8000-12000 euros, investment of such an amount in a 10-15 year old car is not a good one...

Taking this into account, I really do not know how this transition will end. It will happen, how and when I do not know.

I love electric cars, such a pleasure to drive, no noise and very low maintenance costs (Renault Zoe as a reference). But buying one used is a risk, and a new one a huge cost nowadays.

We need a true solution that satisfies environmental, economic and quality variables. But it is being hard to achieve that, today.

There are advances in battery technology, but they're not on the market due to their very high cost, and they won't be for a loooooong time (maybe 2035-2037?).

Hydrogen is too expensive, the supply and distribution infrastructures are extremely expensive, and it seems that those fuel cells have way shorter lifespans that a good electric car battery. I think hydrogen will be used for larger vehicles (airplanes, ships, trucks, buses, etc.).

Eventually, I believe that electric engines will replace ICEs, but not while battery technology and cost remains as it is today.

However, as I see it, the transition is already being made.

The ICEs and oil will continue for a long time, but it is clear they will be phased out. The electric engine is here to replace it, but how? Hydrogen, battery, supercapacitor, battery-supercapacitor hybrid? Lithium and cobalt or some other materials? Batteries so good they last the entire lifespan of the car, without needing replacement?

Time will only tell. I believe it is up to us to manage this transition, according to our buying power, with above all intelligence and not purely on emotional impulses.

There are things about this transition that are not clear... And to my pocket, the "not clear" costs a lot. I leave that to people with a higher income. Let them start to turn the cogs of the machine to (what I think will be) the right direction...

[TonyHSD]

Very well said Jose 👌👍

[Cyker]

The thing is, electric motors have always been the best kind of motor - They have better power to weight, they have better efficiency, better power characteristics; We've had them for so long we've pretty much optimized them as far as they will go for almost every kind of purpose - That's why they've replaced steam engines, water wheels, pedal wheels, wind mills, diesel engines etc. in almost all industrial sectors.

The only place they haven't is in transport, and that's for exactly one reason - Batteries suck. Where you can get away without batteries, e.g. fixed-transport such as trains and trams, they long displaced steam and diesel as they're just *better*.

But for everything else, the lack of some novel way of high density electrical storage has always been the achilles heel stopping it from taking over, and no one put a lot of R&D into the problem until fairly recently so it's well behind the curve.

Just because of the efficiency of electric motors, EVs will always be cheaper to run, *if* you can source your electricity from somewhere that isn't a rip-off - If you can charge at home, even with the electricity price hikes incoming, most EVs will still, at worst, be only slightly more to run than my Mk4 Yaris, but they will be much cheaper than an equivalent-sized vehicle (i.e. giant road hogging boats)

The problem will be rapid charging - If that's your only source of energy, EVs will not make any sense as they will be more expensive to buy and won't be any cheaper to run than the equivalent ICE car so you gain nothing.

I'm just a bit disappointed Mr Fusion from Back to the Future isn't a thing - That would have solved this, and in fact the world's, energy problems! (We were supposed to have them in 2015 according to the film!!  )

[Rhymes with Paris]

What about diesel electric?

The tech has been around for decades,ie locomotives with direct generation, no batteries if I understand it, which I probably don't.

High torque in my theory from a small diesel engine could produce a good amount of electrical power to the wheels.

Just a few problems, like demonization of diesel for one,dpf egr and all the other problems with modern diesels.

Lack of political will to find a solution for another, apart from the net zero mantra.

Has anyone thought of the current global food crisis, what if the agricultural production of grain for bio fuels was diverted for food.

If I have got this all wrong, it's understandable really,as I am old and hard of understanding rather than hearing.😉

 

 

 

[Cyker]

So the french tried it, but it was a disaster - the cars were so unreliable, even compared to normal levels of french car reliability (!!), they stopped selling them pretty quick.

The big problem with diesel is the engine is actually less efficient than a petrol engine until it starts to get hot, but that takes longer than a petrol engine because diesels produce far less waste heat. Add to that, in a hybrid system the engine isn't running a lot of the time, and then you get an engine that never gets to operating temperature.

I found with my Mk1 D4D that if I drove it gently, I would get worse efficiency than if I hooned the nuts off it, on the way to work, because the engine took so long to warm up when driven gently the cold engine light could be still be on when I was half-way to work, esp. in winter!  

My hybrid Yaris already struggles to keep any heat in the engine in winter - If I use the heater it literally sucks all the heat out of the engine so I had to resort to leaving the HVAC off and wearing a thick coat! - so there's just no way a diesel engine would be able to get to it's operating temperature with a similar setup.

 

I think it might work in a big PHEV, where the extra Battery weight doesn't have such a big impact on the diesel mpg, and you could manually switch between EV or ICE mode in order to run the diesel engine for longer and with more load as it moves the car and charges the traction Battery all the way up during e.g. the motorway part of the journey, then switch back to EV for the city part.

But in a normal hybrid setup, where the car is constantly turning the ICE on and off it just breaks the diesel engine as it gets choked up with all the soot and crud that you get from a diesel engine that's running too cold too often!

[Rosgoe]

If I was to get a pure EV I would get some solar panels installed on my house roof with storage batteries and charge the car overnight more or less for free.

however at the moment my corolla hybrid with the milage I am doing is costing me approx £9 a week would having a EV make me better off with the extra expense of installing solar panels and the time it would take me to get my money back and the extra outlay for the EV I doubt it. The only benefit I can see at the moment for me anyway is my contribution to the environment and zero road tax

[Cyker]

That would be the best way to do it, but as you say it's a huge amount of money up-front, probably cost the same as the car, and the numbers just don't work for it economically, as that money buys a loooot of petrol.

My running cost calculations for my Yaris hybrid suggested I'd need to keep it for over 10 years just to break even with my old Mk1 diesel, even with the current price of diesel and ignoring me maybe later going full mad scientist and making my own diesel from my mate's takeaway's cooking oil! (The numbers are more favourable compared with my Mk2 petrol 'tho!)

 

[AJones]

Most EVs get somewhere between 3 to 5 miles per kWh, so even if electricity tariffs increase significantly, the running cost for people charging at home will likely remain below or comparable to a typical petrol or diesel car. Many will be on fixed rate EV tariffs which have discounted off-peak rates for over-night charging which helps reduce the cost, and for company car drivers the significant benefit in kind tax savings remain in place, which tilts the balance in favour of the EV.

There's more affordable EVs coming onto the market, the Corsa-e, e208 and the MG range are all very competitively priced, the new MG4 looks like it could do very well because it isn't much more expense than a regular hatchback.

The current energy prices might be a bump in the road, but they won't change the direction of travel.

 

[Bper]

Regarding electric vehicles are you aware of this.

From 25 October 2021, the CVD will change so that only Battery electric vehicles are eligible. Then from 25 December 2025, the CVD will be discontinued. From this date, all vehicle owners, unless in receipt of another discount or exemption, will need to pay to enter the Congestion Charge zone during charging hours.

This does not mean that there will be a ban on petrol and diesel vehicles driving in the zone or that residents or any other motorists need to buy an electric vehicle. All this means is that there will be no Congestion Charging discount in place for cleaner vehicles and they will be liable for the Congestion Charge in the same way as other vehicles.

[FROSTYBALLS]

That's the way it goes.

[Cyker]

Yeah, that happened ages ago, and will probably stop for EV's soon with the excuse that they're bigger and causing more congestion - You watch.

Most of us don't care about the congestion charge as no sane person will drive into central London anyway; We're more annoyed about the ULEZ expansion, which is likely to expand again since KHAAAAN! isn't making enough money out of us yet...

 

[Bper]

On the subject of EV cars what do you think of the NIO car company who are offering a Battery swap iwhen it runs down nstead of having one fixed permanently. 

It sounds like a good idea as the swap only takes 3-5 minutes. It has tesla worried.

Do you think EV owners would go for this if Toyota adopts this.

[Derek.w]

Battery swaps are very common in Japan at least on bikes.

[Eddie G]

2 hours ago, Bper said:

On the subject of EV cars what do you think of the NIO car company who are offering a battery swap iwhen it runs down nstead of having one fixed permanently. 

It sounds like a good idea as the swap only takes 3-5 minutes. It has tesla worried.

Do you think EV owners would go for this if Toyota adopts this.

Nio charge stations are around £600,000 and that's before the land to build them on and with not being universal and only for Nio cars?, saying that i like the idea? maybe Tesla think they can probably get through more cars faster with a super change station, especially if your having to wait in line if the Nio type station is busy.

[Derek.w]

Main problem with Battery swap diffrent car mfg and diffrent models ie diffrent size Battery packs are aranged diffrently.

Then you have diffrent types of Battery technology batterys on top of that so donot expect it to roll out across all mfg.

Just using a charger is a headache you need a charger station thats vacent then the right app with a credit balance on it and thats 4 or 5 apps as most dont just work from your credit card.

On top of that some are out of order when you turn up for a charge!.

 

[Cyker]

Without standardized batteries, which is unlikely to happen as they are integral to the design, shape and size of the cars at the moment, I just can't see Battery swapping working.

Tesla did a stunt with an automated Battery swap station years ago, in a very contrived scenario where it raced refuelling an Audi (I'm guessing the Audi with the biggest petrol tank at the USA's slowest pump  ).

Obviously, being so stacked in their favour, Battery swap won (I'd like a rematch vs my Yaris!  ), but it quickly went very quiet and they never went anywhere with it - The problem is the swap station only works on the Model S, and even then only very specific versions of the Model S. The other problem is they're effectively either giving you a new battery for the cost of a charge, or giving you a used and potentially faulty battery, as they can't check them without defeating the whole point of doing a battery swap (i.e. speed).

It's a nice idea, but once again the Real World makes it impractical and uneconomic.

 

 

[Bper]

CJPT was launched by Toyota Motor Corporation with Isuzu Motors and Hino Motors in March 2021. They are looking at the viability of cartridge batteries in commercial vehicles.  So if that becomes viable then maybe they will look at future production in there cars.

If toyota incorporated this technology i suspect one of the drawbacks would be the quantity of replacement Battery centre's.  But who knows food for thought. 

 

 

 

[Cyker]

Yeah - Who knows, in the future we might be able to just hop down to Tescos to buy a couple of XYZZY-sized nuclear quantum batteries to power our cars!

I think standardized EV batteries will need to start in industry first tho' - I'm thinking electric forklifts or plant machines (JCBs etc.) and such, where you have a dispensing station that pulls out the old Battery, puts in on a charger, then sticks a freshly charged one in, as they'd be too heavy to be man portable, and designing the machines to have a Battery port at a predetermined position would make it much easier.

 

[Bper]

The price of charging an electric car using a public rapid charger has jumped by almost £10 since May because of soaring energy costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The increased price of wholesale gas and electricity has pushed up the price to charge an average family-size car by 42% to above £32, according to analysis by the RAC. That was £9.60 more than in May, and £13.59 more than a year earlier.

If this continues will it be the downfall of the future for  ELV ?

[Markyswan]

I looked at buying one but cost was to high for my budget, if the cost to charge elv keeps rising it wIll not be cost effective for most people. 

[Cyker]

TBH EVs have only really been for fairly rich people anyway so I don't think the impact will be that bad.

The running costs were increasing rapidly well before the current crises; Guy Martin did a run with a Kia EV a couple years ago and almost had a heart attack when he got charged 70p/kWh at a 350kW charger  (Which didn't even give anywhere near 350kW as I recall, so he basically got ripped off!)

It's more of a PR loss as it shoots down one of the biggest perceived advantages of the EV (i.e. the running cost.), but car companies seem to have anticipated this as they seem to be targeting the luxury premium market where they can charge stupid money and still get buyers for their gigantic ostentatious luxo-barge SUEVs.

In reality, EVs have never had an economical advantage as they cost so much you'd only make back the money over the long term, and the sort of person who buys an EV is not the sort of person who keeps a car for long periods.

To me, the environmental and economical arguments to get an EV (i.e. they're cheap to run and are good for the environment) were always just opportunistic pandering, and almost untrue - Public charging was always expensive and it's known their manufacture has more environmental impact than normal cars.

The real reasons to get an EV are the raw performance and the fact that they feel really nice to drive due to their responsiveness, and the convenience of being able to 'refuel' at home. There are other advantages currently (No tax, ability to park in resident bays in some boroughs) but they will go away over time as EVs become more popular.

I must admit I do feel a bit smug tho' as, right now, my Mk4 Yaris is cheaper to buy *and* to run than any EV  

 

[AJones]

2 minutes ago, Cyker said:

I must admit I do feel a bit smug tho' as, right now, my Mk4 Yaris is cheaper to buy *and* to run than any EV  

There's still EV tariffs around offering off peak rates of 8p/kWh, good EVs and PHEVs can get 3+miles per kWh, so that's less than 2.7p/mile for the energy. With petrol at 165p/litre, you need to get 277 miles per gallon to match it. 

Even with off peak electric at 30p/kWh, that's still less than 10p/mile for the EV, so with petrol at 165p/litre needing 75+mpg to match it.

[Cyker]

Yeah, that's why I'm now in the lead vs my Model 3 owning mate - Currently at 78-ish mpg and found a Shell selling petrol for 153.9/L!  

I was already getting close with the decline of petrol prices, but when his Supercharging fees got hiked to 60p/kWh that pushed it well over the edge. Will be interesting to see which one of us gets hit harder for the winter drop tho'!

Now, there are ways to do it cheaper with an EV - Lucking out on a cheap rate is good, although I feel out of reach of most people now, but an even more extreme example is if you had a big enough stationary Battery and lots of solar panels, but I feel these sort of things are edge cases and not really representative of what a normal person has easy access to. If we were allowing edge-cases in the comparison, that'd be like me saying I could run my old Mk1 D4D for free on my mate's home-made biodiesel - When I was having a heated argument with an EV person many years ago over running costs, he tried to use home and solar charging against my diesel, so I tried to trump it with my mate's home-made bio-diesel, which was deemed unfair... we eventually agreed that comparisons had to be made with stuff that's common and publicly accessible otherwise you can make up any old horseshit to try and win the argument.

I tend to discount the cheap rates as, to my knowledge, nobody is offering cheap off-peak rates to new customers any more; I'm told Octopus will sometimes let new people on their EV tariff if you know who to ask, but their cheap-rate period is still only for a very short period at night time (Like, 4 hours IIRC), and not enough to fully charge any EV with range to compete with my Mk4.

It's likely night-time cheap rates will go away anyway - As EVs increase in popularity, they will soon exceed the night-time base-load, which is only provided by nuclear and gas turbines, and randomly by wind. With the increase in solar generation, which only works during the day, I reckon the cheap rates (if they continue to exist) will start to shift to the day-time instead.