Toyota's sales will most likely go up

[Hornet3D]

The other point that is yet to be proven is the worth of an EV vehicle as a second-hand purchase.  I have owned cars petrol cars in the past that were ten years old or older, some I had kept for a long time but others were well old timers when I purchased them.    Not sure I would be so keen to buy an EV after around the eight-year mark knowing I might have a bill for thousands when the batteries finally gave up.

[Trewithy]

Yesterday I did park beside a 62 plate Prius, so I guess that makes it 10 years old.  It looked like new.

[bigblock]

Anyone buying a second hand EV must be crazy. Battery technology is moving so fast. New EV's are going have a much longer mileage range making a current secondhand EV an unwise choice. Depreciation on current EV'S must be enormous in the first year and they still cost a packet to start with. Toyota are doing the right thing still making hybrids as the main product.

[TonyHSD]

6 minutes ago, bigblock said:

Anyone buying a second hand EV must be crazy. Battery technology is moving so fast. New EV's are going have a much longer mileage range making a current secondhand EV an unwise choice. Depreciation on current EV'S must be enormous in the first year and they still cost a packet to start with. Toyota are doing the right thing still making hybrids as the main product.

This sounds about right, however in current climate I think used bev’s  are selling crazy high prices even similar to hybrids some one and two years old examples goes for few grand on top of brand new equivalent and you will be lucky if there is anything available. Just the wrongs times for buying a car, any type at the moment. 👍

[AndrueC]

58 minutes ago, bigblock said:

Anyone buying a second hand EV must be crazy. Battery technology is moving so fast. New EV's are going have a much longer mileage range making a current secondhand EV an unwise choice.

It seems reasonable to assume that a BEV will accept any replacement Battery that physically fits. Given that all that matters is space to mount the Battery and some way to route the cables (voltage might vary but probably not and anyway there are ways around that) it's unlikely to be a problem.

So when it comes time to replace the old Battery you just fit the latest technology and end up with a vehicle that has even greater range than when it was new. And/or better performance if the new battery is lighter.

Electric motors don't require much maintenance so whilst the outside might look dated in theory a BEV can stay on the road for many, many decades and just become a better and better vehicle.

If I was a manufacturer I'd be concerned about a collapse in the new car market. The only advantage a new car will have over second-hand is more modern styling and a better cabin. As far as performance is concerned there's no reason to expect a new car to be any better than an old one.

[AndrueC]

Oh and just to rub salt into the wounds of ICE enthusiasts:

https://www.leasefetcher.co.uk/guides/electric-cars/electric-car-battery-replacement-cost

"Generally speaking, EV batteries are expected to last between 10-20 years, or 500,000 miles, though Tesla is already working on ‘million-mile’ batteries. Tesla is confident that with this kind of mileage, the Battery will outlast the car!"

And the running costs of a BEV should be far lower than for an ICE. No fluids to replace. No clutch or gearbox to wear out. So when the Battery finally needs replacing it will probably have been 'paid for' by reduced service costs.

All you have to do is fit a new Battery and you have what amounts to a brand new car. Why should their value fall?

[Cyker]

TBH that seems very unlikely - Even normal automotive electronic parts are proprietary as heck, and I've no doubt manufacturers will deliberately block third-party batteries from working using some sort of serialization or encryption key that ties it to the car like Apple have been doing increasingly with their hardware.

And you know they will deliberately not make improved batteries as they will want to sell you a new car.

That said, if the right to repair gets enshrined in law, then we might have a hope, but I'm quite pessimistic about companies doing The Right Thing these days.

 

As for 2nd hand EVs, I'm reserving judgement as the exact same arguments were made against hybrids; Even this forum was expecting the original Prius batteries to be dead within 2 years, like laptop batteries, yet here we are!

But I'd be unlikely to buy a 2nd hand EV just because they all suck - I'm still waiting for me 300+ mile at 70mph in winter Yaris!  

 

[Derek.w]

I was reading one company working on a Battery it charges up in 3 minuets and last 20 Years.

      Its only at the prototype stage I am sorry to say.

[TonyHSD]

Yeah, once Battery tech improves the ice are dead for good. Electric motor is the future but the Battery tech as of current times not really. The problem with current batteries is also that they are limited to certain amount of charge cycles and once they have reached their threshold they become weak  and with limited range. It is very similar to an old phone, it works but Battery dies quickly. While the most phone’s battery can be changed for relatively small money in bev this isn’t the case. And here is the deal, many cars that we have new now with ranges around 150-200 are suitable for most people, however after 6-7 years of use and it’s second or third owner and the car goes into its 8-10 years age the battery might have reached its lifespan if the car has traveled some miles and then replacement is necessary the cost may well be as much as the whole car value. The traction batteries needs to become smaller, lighter and cheaper, also to allow greater ranges and higher charging cycles plus been easy to manufacture and recycle and then we will have cars that are cleaner by all means. 

[Kental]

7 hours ago, Tech429 said:

Sorry... but EV is not the future....

....yet.

ICE motors will be around for a long long time regardless of the 2030 proposal of greener planet, etc.

Just for fun, with a bit of reality thrown in - watch Lee on MacMaster on Youtube.  He has a Porsche EV on lease and he does some good vlogs on the EV subject.  At one stop he did for about 30 minutes he charged it up for 28% boost and he paid £37 !?!?!?  And he had to wait around... buy a coffee... and something to eat... all adding to the cost.

Where us petrol or diesel drivers would pull in, fill up in about 5 minutes at around the same price and get going.

He even travelled to Bangor in North Wales... went to a charge point with 2 places... he could not charge as the place available was the wrong side for his car even if he backed in it would not stretch.  The car in the other place had 30 minutes to go... then the guy could not remove the plug as it was stuck (another 10 minutes wait) then eventually he got in to charge his car... just as another guy pulled in next to him saying he had just been to Morrisons down the road and all their charge points - 4 of them I think - were out of order.  He finds this all over the UK and it is not great to think the Gov want us to go EV, but if the reliable and fast... and reasonable priced infrastructure isn't there what is the point?

All adding to the cost and minutes of your life you will never get back 😆

As an ex full BEV owner, the only BEV I would currently buy is a Tesla, not for the stupid cars that think a !Removed! generator is more important than physical controls, but for the infrastructure.

[Cyker]

Yeah, Tesla's best selling point is by far and away the supercharger network - It's literally the only reliable charging network, which reflects quite badly on all the other charging operators...

But aren't they opening it up to other vehicles? Be interesting to see how that pans out...!

 

1 hour ago, Derek.w said:

I was reading one company working on a battery it charges up in 3 minuets and last 20 Years.

      Its only at the prototype stage I am sorry to say.

Very much an I'll believe it when I see it thing  

We've had so many promises of fantastic new Battery tech that will kill ICE and revolutionize our lives, but I'm still waiting to see them...

Remember I started saving for one 10 years ago because all that stuff should have been out by then, but things haven't really improved more than few % here and there... None of the revolutionary breakthroughs promising 3-4x existing Battery capacity have materialized in that 10 years, so now I own a Mk4 Yaris  

[TonyHSD]

Toyota hybrids will remain the most sensible choice of new and used cars for many people until petrol stations stop selling fuel. Electric cars simply not suitable for everyone.
Every owner can try to use the ice cars they currently have like bev to see if electric car will be suitable. For example keep small amount of fuel in the tank up to the range of your future ev, than top up petrol at only one or two places near your house or work. Depending on your mileage you may also need to stop every day or every two days to fill up, and remember when you do that with your new ev it will take more time to recharge, minimum 30-40 min instead of 2-3 min. Also when you turn the heater ON the range will drop, will also drop when it’s colder, when it’s raining , heavy winds, etc . Same efficiency is affected in ice and hev but not as much.

It is a burden to think constantly of range, charging, charger availability etc. The easiest way is charging at home, anything else should be counted as emergency top up only. 👍

[Cyker]

But but but Tony statistics show on average, people only need to drive 30-40 miles so these massive expensive short range land boats should be perfect for *everybody!* 

 

(That was sarcasm, just in case it wasn't clear  )

 

[TonyHSD]

Perhaps manufacturers does these massive and expensive new cars ev first as they know the early adopters will seek cars like that and not cheap affordable evs, along with larger Battery requires a large car body to fit in, otherwise the cars will look similar to Boeing 747 bump, large chassis with a small cabin on top 😂👌

[Broadway One]

On 9/28/2022 at 6:12 PM, Cyker said:

Those emissions and that energy are far better used directly..

Hi all......take the point.

Burning vast quantities of natural gas to generate electricity will go down in history as  a totally squandering of a refined fuel that can be used directly in the majority of instances.

Interesting to note that pre privatisation the nationalised electricity industry was never allowed to burn gas to generate electricity by central government.

Barry Wright, Lancashire.

PS Boiling a electric kettle full of water uses 4 times the energy of similar on a gas ring.