A sad goodbye to Toyota and Prius

[Will004]

After driving the Prius for 15 years (Gens 2,3 and 4) and Toyotas for over 25 years, I'm giving up on the brand for the foreseable future. The reason? Toyota have fallen so far behind with developing electric models and I'm pushing 70! I've just taken delivery of the new version Kia Niro, top spec. Very pleased so far. Just the right size for me (a bit shorter that the Prius). And that's the problem - what does Toyota have (when it eventually works), a great big beast that looks like it would be more at home on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Kia/Hyundai seem to have got it right in offering family sized cars as well as large models. The irony is the Uber drivers really like the Niro as well - will it become the new Prius?

By the way used Prius prices are very good if you're selling, I got over £20k for my 17 plate with low mileage.

I hope I can consider an electric Toyota one day, but they need to get on with it, dump the obsession with hydrogen (never going to be mass market) and stop resting on its hybrid laurels, deserved as it was.

 

[Stivino]

7 minutes ago, Will004 said:

Toyota have fallen so far behind with developing electric models

Eh?

[flash22]

EV is still very early in its development TBH, the EV infrastructures are nowhere near ready

[TonyHSD]

I think there is nothing sad here and you have made the right choice and the smarter move👌 Hyundai and Kia currently offer one of the best ev’s price - equipment- range - usability and reliability. These cars are replacing Prius in the taxi trade for a good reason. I am not a fan of their hybrid tech at all but the evs are really good indeed. Enjoy your new car and please come back to share some experience 🙂.
Here an interesting video about efficiency between popular evs. 

 

[Will004]

Thanks Tony. It's sad because I've been a Toyota customer for 25 years and they were once streets ahead in the electrification of cars. My Gen 4 Excel was the best car I ever owned, no question, until now.

As to EV infrastructure not being ready, it will expand to meet the demand. One million EVs have now been sold in the UK. The Niro EV was the 2nd best selling EV last year, the fact they are now on the 2nd generation says it all about how they have pulled ahead

[Hybrid21]

Certainly would appreciate an update on your findings and comments after a few weeks with your new Kia Steve 👍

[Cyker]

TBH it just shows how stagnant the EV world has been - When the Kona Electric and e-Niro came out, I was seriously considering them as they were the only EVs that had decent enough range to challenge the Tesla empire, without being mahoosive in price and size... and many years later they are STILL the only EVs that have decent range without being mahoosive in size (The price has crept up somewhat alas - IIRC the base spec was 30-32k and the SE was 35-38k when I was originally tempted to get one!!!)

At the moment I think they are still the only EVs worth looking at if you want something that has decent real-world range but isn't the size of a small humpback whale - I don't think they have any real competition. The only other car worth looking at would be the Model 3, but I hate the interface and the car really isn't small (I think it's got a bigger footprint than my Dad's *7-seater* Verso!)

 

[BhxTrev]

 

Hi Cyker,

I certainly agree with you but I parked my Prius Excel next to a Tesla Model 3 & in my opinion the two cars are about the same size. Nevertheless, I’m not keen on the Model 3 interface either & as for the price tag😳!

I’m not ready to change my Prius just yet but it has to be an EV with a decent range as my next car. Unfortunately I get the impression that Toyota have dropped their guard as far as EVs are concerned. I also want a car not a tank & a lot of the cars produced by Toyota at the moment, don’t really appeal to me even if they were EVs. Shame really but I appreciate your comment about the KIA & Hyundai EVs.

 

 

[FROSTYBALLS]

Think that all Japanese manufacturers have held back on EV development.

Bear in mind that Europe is Toyota's third biggest market behind Asia (including China) and the US. Similar for other Japanese manufacturers. Aside from China, EV's are yet to establish a good foothold in Asia, which may go some way to explaining the limited showing of Japanese brands in developing EVs for Europe.

Aside from the above, I feel that Chinese manufacturers are poised to field strong competition in the European EV market. Geely own Volvo, Lynk, and Polestar (as well as LTI). MG are expanding their range of EVs - with the new MG4 getting good reviews, etc - having now become the fastest growing brand in the UK and 12th most popular seller here. BYD and Xpeng have started to expand into Europe - though not reached the UK yet.

[Cyker]

It's fairly well known that Toyota *really* don't want to be making full EVs, at least not yet - They firmly believe that hybrids are, right now, a much better idea as they can make like, 5+ hybrids for what it takes to make 1 EV, which is why they've been trying to pressure governments in to extending the deadline, but so far they've been forced into the EV market far ahead of schedule which I think is why it's so lacklustre.

I think originally, their plan was aligned with the original EV cutoff year of 2040, so they're being forced to move their plan 10 years early and they just don't have things in place or ready.

I think one of the things they were banking on was solid-state batteries, and being able to pack them in at a much higher density than current cells, but solid-state batteries are still several years out from the level it needs to be for EVs and mass production.

Really the biggest obstacle with EVs is that batteries suck - They need to have much more capacity than they currently do and/or be smaller and weigh a lot less. If we can get some Battery breakthroughs or invent a new way of storing huge amounts of electricity in a safe stable way, that will pave the way for mass adoption - Everything else about an EV - The inverters, the motors, the control systems - are tried and tested technology, it's literally just electrical storage that is letting the side down!

[Will004]

All good points. Bans on new ICE cars/vans seem to vary around the world, usually in 2030-40 range. Not actually a lot of time given the very long lead in times for planning new ranges etc.

The prices have certainly gone up - the Kia range has had two price rises since I ordered in June. The thing that did it for me was the incredible prices used cars are fetching. This can't go on for ever, once the supply chain crisis eases prices will come down, possibly sharply. Half the cost of my EV was covered by my Prius Excel, over 5 years old, although with only 11,000 on the clock (partly thanks to Covid lockdowns). So it's worth doing the sums. If it works for you this may be the best time to switch until prices really drop sometime in the future.

[TonyHSD]

1 hour ago, Will004 said:

All good points. Bans on new ICE cars/vans seem to vary around the world, usually in 2030-40 range. Not actually a lot of time given the very long lead in times for planning new ranges etc.

The prices have certainly gone up - the Kia range has had two price rises since I ordered in June. The thing that did it for me was the incredible prices used cars are fetching. This can't go on for ever, once the supply chain crisis eases prices will come down, possibly sharply. Half the cost of my EV was covered by my Prius Excel, over 5 years old, although with only 11,000 on the clock (partly thanks to Covid lockdowns). So it's worth doing the sums. If it works for you this may be the best time to switch until prices really drop sometime in the future.

Agreed, if I had a car that worth something I would have done  the same or as some others sell and downsize. Keep some cash for other needs, use. 
My car probably worth as much  as a good set of tyres for one of these new evs so I am keeling it until not road worthy anymore and then will start from scratch. Could be an ev, the new Prius or perhaps some small petrol manual runaround to enjoy my days off and not to forget how to drive. Things change and we don’t know what’s around the corner. 

[AJones]

22 hours ago, Cyker said:

TBH it just shows how stagnant the EV world has been 

What? There's been lots of smaller, long range range EVs launched:

MG have long range versions of the MG4 hatchback and MG5 estate/sports wagon at prices competitive or lower than the equivalent Toyota hybrid.

Theres the Peugeot e208 and the Vauxhall eCorsa, and the larger Mokka. The Mini is now available in an EV version. Nissan released the long range Leaf e+. 

VW released the ID3, a long range hatchback, there's the Cupra Born sharing the same platform.

There's s lot of smaller, long range EVs hitting the market, unfortunately what there isn't is a Toyota offering.

[Cyker]

Okay, so when I think "long range", I mean *actually* long range and not the EV world's idea of long range, which is less range than even the least efficient petrol car I've owned.

All the cars that can actually do more than, say, 200 miles at e.g. motorway speeds are big-to-massive cars.

Aside from the Kona and Niro, which I'm giving a lot of leeway to as they are considerably bigger than a Yaris, anything Yaris-sized doesn't even get close to even 200 miles on the motorway.

For some context, my goal is a Yaris-sized EV that can do 300+ miles in winter at 70mph. Right now, the closest vehicle to that is the Kona/Niro. They are *nearly* Yaris-sized and can *nearly* do 300 miles at motorway speeds.

However, we seem to be getting further away from that with each new EV and it narcs me off. Every time I see a new EV announced, it's either even bigger than the last, or has worse range.

The problem is still all to do with batteries - We've had so little progress with batteries in the past decade that it's still physically impossible to get 300+-miles worth of electrical storage into something the size of a Yaris. I think I'm just literally waiting for these magical Battery breakthroughs they keep talking about to actually make it to The Real World, but it's starting to feel like Nuclear Fusion (i.e. always 10 years away...)

 

 

[FROSTYBALLS]

Autocar's top 10 best small electric cars makes interesting reading as regards real world range:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/best-cars/top-10-best-small-electric-cars

A relative of mine who is a development engineer for Aston Martin has a Peugeot EV (think it is the 208 electric (225 mile range)) and often has to travel from Gaydon to St Athan in Wales. Has to recharge at 80 miles - but uses a cafe partway where the car can be recharged enough for him to complete the journey whilst he has a coffee. He much prefers an Aston when he has to take one home (which happens quite frequently) ......

[AJones]

26 minutes ago, Cyker said:

However, we seem to be getting further away from that with each new EV and it narcs me off. Every time I see a new EV announced, it's either even bigger than the last, or has worse range.

What about the MG4? Hatchback, Corolla sized so a bit bigger than the Yaris, already available in a long range 64kWh version, price similar to the Corolla. 

VW ID3 and the Cupra Born both look good, hatchbacks, big batteries, decent range.

Anyone wanting a mid sized EV hatchback now has several options if they choose to look.

26 minutes ago, Cyker said:

The problem is still all to do with batteries - We've had so little progress with batteries in the past decade that it's still physically impossible to get 300+-miles worth of electrical storage into something the size of a Yaris.

10 years ago the affordable EVs were models like the Leaf which had capacities around 20kWh, now most EVs start at over double that with 50kWh in small Yaris sized EVs like the Corsa and e208. Go up to mid sized hatchbacks and the Leaf, MG4, ID3, Born have 60+kWh batteries. 

So 10 years has delivered somewhere between a doubling to a trebling in Battery size, and Yaris sized EVs with 50kWh batteries.

[Cyker]

That's because the batteries in the Leaf are *tiny*, and that was because they were so expensive. (I will say that is something that is overlooked, i.e. that the cost of lithium batteries has gone down a lot, but that's more the power of mass production rather than any technological breakthroughs.). They were even able to put bigger batteries in later because there was so much unused space.

The batteries themselves haven't changed much at all - The lowering cost, and also the trimming of safety margins, has just enabled more of them to be crammed into a car, but we've already hit the physical limit of them because of the lack of progress in energy density.

The Kona and Niro EVs had 64kWh batteries available when they first came out, yet after all this time, similar sized EVs still have similar or even smaller capacity batteries. I was hoping we'd be at 80-100kW batteries by now!

Taking your examples, I don't consider the ID3 and MG4 to be small cars, although comparable to the Kona/Niro I suppose. However, their real world range has been considerably worse than the Kona and Niro from what I've read, and they don't get anywhere near their rated range in real life. By comparison, the Kona and Niro were exceeding their rated range when they first came out!

This just goes back to what I sometimes say about the newer EVs having worse efficiency; The Korean cars were getting 4-5 miles/kWh from what I saw of YouTubing owners driving them, whereas the ID3 and MG cars seems to be more in the mid-3's. I don't know why there has been such a big drop.

It's just very frustrating as, while I want an EV (Because electric motors are awesome), the current and upcoming choices are just not at all compelling to me - I'm used to being able to do huge miles in a small, manoeuvrable and easy to park car, and all the EV offerings I see just feel like a big step backwards in terms of cost and utility.

But as someone said, really it's still early days for EVs so I'll just have to be more patient. Fortunately the Mk4 should last me a long time so I'm content to wait for something more suitable to appear... (Assuming we're still allowed to drive cars by then!!)

To be fair, it took Toyota over 15 years to make a car that could beat the mpg of their own Yaris Mk1 D4D!  (That is the source of my issue too - My Mk1 got me used to being able to do 600 miles at the drop of a hat, and even my Mk4 with it's thimble-sized petrol tank can do 500 miles - And I'm not talking eco-driving range, this is with my trademarked 'spirited' driving  - and they could both be taken down country lanes easily. Most EVs are pushing 2m of width which makes them much less pleasant to take down such roads, not to mention narrow London parking spaces!)

 

[AJones]

9 hours ago, Cyker said:

The Kona and Niro EVs had 64kWh batteries available when they first came out, yet after all this time, similar sized EVs still have similar or even smaller capacity batteries. I was hoping we'd be at 80-100kW batteries by now!

There are models offering 80kWh, the Skoda Enyaq has an 82kWh version, Cupra Borne e-boost has 82kWh. Slightly smaller, the affordable MG ZS long range has 72kWh.

As the batteries get bigger it becomes a question of how much extra benefit comes from adding further capacity and range vs. the extra cost. Once the cars can comfortably do 200+ miles, for a lot of people that meets their needs, the benefit of further range is outweighed by the extra cost.

9 hours ago, Cyker said:

It's just very frustrating as, while I want an EV (Because electric motors are awesome), the current and upcoming choices are just not at all compelling to me - I'm used to being able to do huge miles in a small, manoeuvrable and easy to park car, and all the EV offerings I see just feel like a big step backwards in terms of cost and utility.

Car choice is very personal, but in the last few years EVs have now reached the point that anyone wanting a smaller EV or mid-sized hatchback now has a perfectly good selection to chose from - MG4, Leaf e+, ID3, Cupra Born, Mini electric, Fiat 500 Electric, Smart EV etc etc. 

9 hours ago, Cyker said:

Most EVs are pushing 2m of width which makes them much less pleasant to take down such roads, not to mention narrow London parking spaces!)

There's EVs which are narrower than the Yaris, some about the same, some slightly wider.  

Yaris = 1745mm wide

Fiat 500 = 1683mm wide.

Leaf = 1788mm wide.

MG4 =1836mm wide

Personally, I don't find the arguments about insufficient range or size or width convincing, there are long range models, there are models with sizes comparable with existing vehicles. To me the biggest issue currently, is the cost of EVs, they remain quite expensive and carry a significant premium, though the recent MG models have made some more affordable options available.

[Cyker]

The thing is you don't see those as big cars but I do - All the EVs with actually useful real-world range to me are gigantic SUVs aside from the Kona and Niro (Which are still SUVs but not as gigantic). I think people have been desensitized to how gigantic cars are now - Look at the original VW Golf and compare it to a modern Golf or even a Polo for instance. Even the Yaris has gotten very tubby and is not what I would consider a small car any more. (It's one of the bugbears I have with the Mk4 - It's bigger than the Mk2 but has less space inside!)

The three cars you listed have either joke range or are considerably bigger than a Yaris and still can't get even close to 300 miles of motorway range in the real world. I'm not even sure they could do 200 - The official ranges of EVs is almost as big a lie as the NEDC mpg ratings we used to get. They're achievable if you drive 20mph everywhere, but that's just not realistic.

Size-wise, even my Yaris Mk4 was a compromise in size and has actually cost me street parking spaces - My Mk1 and Mk2 were both about 3.7m long and less than 1.7m wide and were able to fit into more tight spaces than the nearly 4m long Mk4 does. Here in London that extra foot of length has made a noticeable difference and it's surprising how many space I've had to pass up that I could have gotten into in the Mk2 or Mk1.

The usual argument to that is that I should have two cars, which to me is just a sign that they are still unfit for my purpose, as I have never needed 2 cars and refuse to do so for obvious reasons.

 

You are right that there are models with range (I refuse to say long range as 2-300 miles is NOT long range no matter how they spin it!), and models that are compact, but these two things seem to be mutually exclusive right now - I need them to meet!

Ironically, to me, the cost doesn't matter - It just shows how difficult it is for car manufacturers to target their cars when there are so many different audiences! For me, the car would be a work horse, not a short range shopping cart, and would rack up mega miles, so I'd pay whatever was needed for one that does the job, because it's needed for me to do my job! One of the reasons I took a gamble on the Mk4 (Which has pretty wiped out my long-saving car fund!) is that it should hold its value fairly strongly compared to normal ICE cars, judging by how other hybrids have done, so I'm hoping to leverage that while I'm saving up again for this fictional EV that nobody has made yet!  

[TonyHSD]

No argument, bev’s with current Battery technology only ok for town driving or short commute. They are not ideal for long motorway drives. 
Charging outside your house only as emergency option, otherwise you are lost. Bev’s  are affected too much by the environment. Hybrids are affected too, but let say you can loose max 10mpg because of weather, tyres, where and how you drive etc.  That’s equals 1ltr on top per each 100km travel.
I take that hit every winter but ev , even the longest range will have half of its range reduced, much bigger difference than hybrids or ice. Electric cars always been the best for cities, travel up and down the country not really. We have an ev, not a long range car, has a small 38kw/h Battery and can do in ideal condition around 180-200miles, one of the efficient cars out there, however only once taken this car for a long trip and was a nightmare., those 180 miles where only a dream , not reality and our journey that should have be done within 4 hrs turned into a 8+hrs. Drive around town, shopping, work, school runs, days out to the park or country side, anything within the half range of the car and evs are great, anything more and you will feel all of their pain. My next door neighbour bought a leaf first gen 30kw/h Battery, car in excellent condition, low miles , great battery health, range its a joke, 80-90 miles. 

[AisinW]

BEV is for people who has some money to donate to auto industry. The money that we may save if we have solar panel at home, garage, and charge at home all the time will be spent later on at its 8th or 10th year birthday. By that time, it is a disposable metal box. Charging in the Autobahn is about 60-73c per kWh or equal to €3+ per liter compared to my gen 3 Prius/auris. 

BEV is not a solution because ICE is not the problem. 

In winter the range drops to only about 60% and degrade over time too. It is a kind of silly, we only move the pollution to electric plant and waste the heat there instead of using it for warming car cabin in winter. 

Practically 200 miles vs 600 miles range when new and 50 miles vs 600 miles in 12 years later. Even worse if we give money to communist autocratic Chinese cars.