Batteries

[Cyker]

Lucky you didn't come back today! Apparently there's been a massive accident on the M1 around Northampton!

 

[Nick72]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:26 PM, Flatcoat said:

In 5 years the rose tinted glasses will be well and truly slipping from those who are currently blinded by the BEV one size fits all solution. Yes, hybrids are possibly a time limited solution but not if development and use of clean synthetic fuel is encouraged. 

Not so sure possibly because... Both the motor tech and Battery tech is each improving by a minimum of a factor of 3 over the next 10 years just based on linear regression and evolutionary developments (nothing weird or risky required). Power density (motor) and Specific energy (Wh per kg). And the price is falling with that. In 5 or 6 years time a 450 to 500 mile BEV with over 300hp and under 2 tonnes will be common and sub 50k in SUV form. The range makes up for the lack of infrastructure. Whether it is truly a sustainable solution is another matter sadly.

 

[Strangely Brown]

8 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Not so sure possibly because... Both the motor tech and battery tech is each improving by a minimum of a factor of 3 over the next 10 years just based on linear regression and evolutionary developments (nothing weird or risky required). Power density (motor) and Specific energy (Wh per kg). And the price is falling with that. In 5 or 6 years time a 450 to 500 mile BEV with over 300hp and under 2 tonnes will be common and sub 50k in SUV form. The range makes up for the lack of infrastructure. Whether it is truly a sustainable solution is another matter sadly.

 

Without a change in Battery or charging technology I don't see how the time to charge is likely to come down very much. The ability to transfer large quantities of energy from one place to another is still limited by the laws of physics and charge cables can, realistically, only be made so thick.

[Flatcoat]

1 hour ago, Nick72 said:

Not so sure possibly because... Both the motor tech and battery tech is each improving by a minimum of a factor of 3 over the next 10 years just based on linear regression and evolutionary developments (nothing weird or risky required). Power density (motor) and Specific energy (Wh per kg). And the price is falling with that. In 5 or 6 years time a 450 to 500 mile BEV with over 300hp and under 2 tonnes will be common and sub 50k in SUV form. The range makes up for the lack of infrastructure. Whether it is truly a sustainable solution is another matter sadly.

 

Dream on…. 

[ernieb]

I think there will be an element of 'Moore's Law' at work with Battery developments. There are a lot of interesting and diverse technologies being researched and developed so I can certainly see the power density and charge speed could well be improved significantly over a 2-5 year period. How this filters into production hardware will be more a business decision as the costs involved are staggering and they have to be recovered sometime and new manufacturing plants built or modified.  The up side is that most manufacturers have a Battery format that might well mean that the actual car chassis would need little or no modification to accomodate a better performing Battery.

The electric motors have again seen some real advances in size, efficiency and power as witnessed by Tesla in the last few years. Tesla seem to be a good example of a company rolling out incremental development improvements of both battery and motors into production cars.

[George22]

I’ve noticed that when charging overnight my PHEV Battery normally charges to around 54 miles,  but now it’s around 48.

Is that due to the cold weather? Here in the South West it’s not that cold at the moment though. I’m hoping it’s not Battery degradation. 

[Strangely Brown]

17 minutes ago, George22 said:

I’ve noticed that when charging overnight my PHEV battery normally charges to around 54 miles,  but now it’s around 48.

Is that due to the cold weather? Here in the South West it’s not that cold at the moment though. I’m hoping it’s not battery degradation. 

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1705816/electric-cars-ev-range-issues

The same principle will apply to the traction batteries in HEV and PHEV.

[George22]

5 minutes ago, Strangely Brown said:

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1705816/electric-cars-ev-range-issues

The same principle will apply to the traction batteries in HEV and PHEV.

Thanks, I will have a look there.

[philip42h]

45 minutes ago, George22 said:

I’ve noticed that when charging overnight my PHEV battery normally charges to around 54 miles,  but now it’s around 48.

Is that due to the cold weather? Here in the South West it’s not that cold at the moment though. I’m hoping it’s not battery degradation. 

The range 'guesssometer' provides an estimate of the range available based on the amount of fuel in the tank / charge available in the Battery and the effective consumption you have achieved in the recent past. So, basically, if you have been driving economically the car will expect you to continue doing so and estimate a higher range accordingly; conversely if you have been driving less economically you will see a lower range.

Lower speeds, gentle acceleration and limited use of accessories such as wipers, heaters and lights will give better economy and so better range. Highway driving, hard acceleration and greater use of wipers, heaters and lights etc. will give increased consumption and hence lower estimated range.

As the days get shorter and cooler we use more power even if we drive in exactly the same way - so, yes, that will affect predicted range ... and you can expect it to improve again when the days get longer and warmer ... 🙂

[George22]

49 minutes ago, philip42h said:

The range 'guesssometer' provides an estimate of the range available based on the amount of fuel in the tank / charge available in the battery and the effective consumption you have achieved in the recent past. So, basically, if you have been driving economically the car will expect you to continue doing so and estimate a higher range accordingly; conversely if you have been driving less economically you will see a lower range.

Lower speeds, gentle acceleration and limited use of accessories such as wipers, heaters and lights will give better economy and so better range. Highway driving, hard acceleration and greater use of wipers, heaters and lights etc. will give increased consumption and hence lower estimated range.

As the days get shorter and cooler we use more power even if we drive in exactly the same way - so, yes, that will affect predicted range ... and you can expect it to improve again when the days get longer and warmer ... 🙂

Great info, many thanks.  Yes I do understand what you are saying but I was was just wondering why when I look at how much charge is in the Battery, before driving, there is 48 and not 54 miles available after an overnight charge. Much appreciated the extra info, thanks. 

[philip42h]

9 minutes ago, George22 said:

Great info, many thanks.  Yes I do understand what you are saying but I was was just wondering why when I look at how much charge is in the battery, before driving, there is 48 and not 54 miles available. 

In all cases you have exactly the same amount of charge in the Battery - i.e. nominally 18.1 kWh. The range estimation suggests how far you might be able to go on that charge based on recent climatic conditions and driving style ...

[George22]

1 hour ago, philip42h said:

In all cases you have exactly the same amount of charge in the battery - i.e. nominally 18.1 kWh. The range estimation suggests how far you might be able to go on that charge based on recent climatic conditions and driving style ...

Good to know, many thanks. 

[Nick72]

On 12/28/2022 at 9:20 PM, Strangely Brown said:

Without a change in battery or charging technology I don't see how the time to charge is likely to come down very much. The ability to transfer large quantities of energy from one place to another is still limited by the laws of physics and charge cables can, realistically, only be made so thick.

Doesn't matter if you can make your journey and back post a long (14hr) overnight charge from your wall box. And in most cases folk won't be doing that kind of trip everyday so they're probably starting from a Non-zero SOC. Not so much physics but use statistics.

[Nick72]

On 12/28/2022 at 10:27 PM, Flatcoat said:

Dream on…. 

It's what I do for a living. No dreaming required. Have all of the detailed charts validated by industry and academia. Which part do you think is a dream?

[Nick72]

On 12/28/2022 at 10:27 PM, Flatcoat said:

Dream on…. 

Last 10 years it has tripled (see link below). The next 10 years will more than triple as a result of; improved understanding of the Battery chemistry (we are really at the beginning of the Lithium chemistry journey), modifications to that chemistry, anode and cathode materials and design, alternative chemistries such as LiS, and increasing global demand for batteries with high energy density and specific energy. No mystical graphene supercapacitors necessary (although if those do come off we aren't talking about 3 fold improvement, more like 10 fold). That global demand includes; EVs, EVTOL aircraft, FW light aircraft, renewables energy storage, and much more. Check out the Faraday institute if interested. They have detailed reports available. The next 10 years chart I was involved in I can't show here given it is proprietary in nature but you can find plenty of papers and analysis via Google supporting my earlier statements about at least a 3 fold improvement in Battery performance measures mentioned.

Electric motor power density is improving as a result of robotics investments ahead of EVs. Generally speaking this is as a result of; higher Tesla magnets and electromagnets, lower resistance electrical windings, innovation in terms of form factor, and significant improvements in manufacturing.

No laws of physics being broken. It's just the current designs and materials are a bit s#|t because they didn't need to be anything more. The market is however now driving the improvements.

2010 to 2020...

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/amp/

 

 

[Strangely Brown]

6 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Doesn't matter if you can make your journey and back post a long (14hr) overnight charge from your wall box. And in most cases folk won't be doing that kind of trip everyday so they're probably starting from a Non-zero SOC. Not so much physics but use statistics.

But it does matter. The problem is still going to exist for all those who cannot charge at home.

That's the thing with all of these discussions about EVs and how great the future is going to be. All of the promoters and enthusiasts only look at it from the perspective of the person with off-street parking and a decent home charge supply. That is NOT the reality for the majority of drivers in the UK.

The majority of drivers will be charging from public infrastructure and we have just seen how well that works when all those Tesla owners tried to go away for Xmas. It's not Battery capacity or range that is the problem it is, and always will be, the time taken to refill your "fuel tank" and get on your way.

Even if new Battery technology is developed that is capable of being re-charged to 80-100% in 5 minutes, you still have to get the electricity from the charger to the car and that will require unfeasibly thick connectors - even assuming that the charger could supply it.

I wonder how long it will be before the first fault and flashover tries to weld the car to the charging station. 🙂

 

[Yugguy1970]

I think we could get used to longer "fuelling" times, for me that's not the issue so much as knowing I will at least be able to do it without worry.  Trouble with the EV infra is that unlike a petrol station, there's noone managing it.

The whole debate though about EV is a perfect example of this weird modern polarisation thing, where you have to be either completely in love with something, or completely against it.

I know it's the Grauniad but it's not wrong https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/21/london-the-worst-city-in-europe-for-health-costs-from-air-pollution

This is one of the biggest drivers for me to move away from petrol/diesel.  We KNOW that living in a city causes respiratory issues.  And when you think about it - what on earth are we arguing about - we are arguing about wether we should carry on poisoning the atmosphere.

[Nick72]

2 hours ago, Strangely Brown said:

But it does matter. The problem is still going to exist for all those who cannot charge at home.

That's the thing with all of these discussions about EVs and how great the future is going to be. All of the promoters and enthusiasts only look at it from the perspective of the person with off-street parking and a decent home charge supply. That is NOT the reality for the majority of drivers in the UK.

The majority of drivers will be charging from public infrastructure and we have just seen how well that works when all those Tesla owners tried to go away for Xmas. It's not battery capacity or range that is the problem it is, and always will be, the time taken to refill your "fuel tank" and get on your way.

Even if new battery technology is developed that is capable of being re-charged to 80-100% in 5 minutes, you still have to get the electricity from the charger to the car and that will require unfeasibly thick connectors - even assuming that the charger could supply it.

I wonder how long it will be before the first fault and flashover tries to weld the car to the charging station. 🙂

 

Agree entirely with your point about a lot of folk not being able to charge from home. That's a big barrier to a chunk of the market. How big that chunk is I cannot say but it could be as much as a half considering folks in flats, terraced houses and so on. 

A quick charge however out at the supermarket, suitable forecourt, shopping complex, car park or wherever for 20 to 30 minutes can already put 70 to 200 miles into the better EVs with a fast charge capability (and more EVs are arriving with 50 to 150kW DC charge capability). That for me would cover my normal commutes except for the long 400 mile business trips that come up once or twice a month. So if we think about that chunk of the market in flats and terraces the likelihood is many might be ok with (may prefer) a smaller affordable, easy to park, EV which provides them with the weekly range they need from a weekly blast at the supermarket or wherever. So a large slice of that market chunk could in theory be accessed in this way

As for welding cars it's no more risky than pumping an extremely flammable liquid - gas (petrol)into a car for 2 minutes. 

Bigger barrier is the price of electricity, particularly at the charging stations where it's reaching parity with petrol per mile. That however is a temporary (few years) geopolitical issue.

[Strangely Brown]

42 minutes ago, Yugguy1970 said:

And when you think about it - what on earth are we arguing about - we are arguing about wether we should carry on poisoning the atmosphere.

I think the argument is not against BEVs; it is absolutely certain that they will have their place in the transport mix of the future.

I don't see anyone saying that we should not stop poisoning the atmosphere. They are saying that this do or die push to BEVs is NOT the way to do it. We need other options BEFORE banning the bits that actually work and enable the world to function.

And anyway, without the capacity to generate the electricity in the first place the whole question is somewhat moot.

 

[philip42h]

1 minute ago, Nick72 said:

Agree entirely with your point about a lot of folk not being able to charge from home. That's a big barrier to a chunk of the market. How big that chunk is I cannot say but it could be as much as a half considering folks in flats, terraced houses and so on.

And my slightly tongue in cheek response to that is that none of us routinely refuel our fossil fueled cars at home ... The issue isn't the lack of fuel / charge at home but the lack of refueling / charging stations. And once charging stations are as ubiquitous as filling stations - i.e. there is sufficient capacity for the masses - that problem will be overcome.

(Which is, of course, pretty much what you go on to say ... 😉 )

The "time to charge" looks likely to continue being an issue for some time - it will require a level of journey (or more accurately 'stop') planning that we don't have to do today. But once the alternatives are public transport or staying at home I suspect that we will be able to cope ...

[Nick72]

On 12/29/2022 at 8:11 AM, George22 said:

I’ve noticed that when charging overnight my PHEV battery normally charges to around 54 miles,  but now it’s around 48.

Is that due to the cold weather? Here in the South West it’s not that cold at the moment though. I’m hoping it’s not battery degradation. 

Cold weather for sure. 

Here are the charts from a brief internet scrape of reported range Vs average speed and temperature window. Curves are a poor fit given few data points.

Seemed to correlate with what I was getting. When it was hit in the summer I broke 60 miles a charge (on an eco driving mission). Just. But more usually I was getting 55 to 58. Whereas this time of year I've been getting anywhere between 44 and 50.

[Nick72]

3 minutes ago, philip42h said:

And my slightly tongue in cheek response to that is that none of us routinely refuel our fossil fueled cars at home ... The issue isn't the lack of fuel / charge at home but the lack of refueling / charging stations. And once charging stations are as ubiquitous as filling stations - i.e. there is sufficient capacity for the masses - that problem will be overcome.

(Which is, of course, pretty much what you go on to say ... 😉 )

The "time to charge" looks likely to continue being an issue for some time - it will require a level of journey (or more accurately 'stop') planning that we don't have to do today. But once the alternatives are public transport or staying at home I suspect that we will be able to cope ...

So I think you're right but...

We need to split the market up. Different needs.

Cat 1. For those with wall boxes like my 7.4kW box or the 3 phase 20 or so kW then the main barrier is actually range performance of the vehicle. For example, for those like me who don't want to be held hostage by the poor infrastructure for long road trips, particularly business. It's why I got the R4P. I'm driving an EV for most of my mileage but have the range and assurance for long trips. But, give me a sub 60k 400mile winter motorway range SUV EV and that's sorted. Sold at that point.

Cat 2. For those without home access to charging there will be two camps...

Cat 2a. Those that don't require more than say 100 or so miles range a week and in which case the barrier is access to fast charging once a week (which are appearing at supermarkets, car parks and everywhere else), so a quick 20 minute blast gets them their weekly range. Whether that's still too much of an inconvenience is another matter and perhaps more of a behavioural change.

Cat 2b. Then there's the frequent longer range commuters or occasional long range commuters (like me) and in which case I'd say stick with petrol until such time that all of the infrastructure is sorted out, fast charging is the norm, and EV Battery ranges are much longer. Reducing frequency of charging, time of charging, availability of charging, all of which is inconvenience and risk related.

[Yugguy1970]

There is one category you are forgetting.  I follow Top Gear on FB and all the commenters there are real men and real drivers who would not be seen dead in anything that isn't a manual V8 that does 10mpg 🤣

Rolls Royce have just brought out their first EV.  I don't think there is any other maker more suited to silent power, but according to that lot, it's an EV so therefore instantly crap.

[Flatcoat]

10 hours ago, Nick72 said:

It's what I do for a living. No dreaming required. Have all of the detailed charts validated by industry and academia. Which part do you think is a dream?

Academia….. mmmm… Production at scale in a form that is affordable for ordinary car users, not just Tesla and Audi etron buyers. The bandwidth needs of transport and car use is way beyond the capability of BEV as the sole solution. The head of Toyota has it right with his views, head of Stellantis has made similar comments and concerns about affordability of EV’s. The voting public have not been asked to vote on this enforced one size fits all as long as you are wealthy solution. I love the idea of electric propulsion however in the real world it is unachievable as the sole solution.  

[ernieb]

There is no doubt that today’s BEV’s should be considered as ‘first generation’.