Batteries

[Hayzee]

2 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Bigger barrier is the price of electricity, particularly at the charging stations where it's reaching parity with petrol per mile. That however is a temporary (few years) geopolitical issue.

I fear that may be a big assumption regarding price of a KwH in the near future, particularly at commercial outlets. Once we are using a much higher percentage of renewable energy I would agree.

[Yugguy1970]

Agreed - BEV should not be the only mandated solution, but technically it isn't?  https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-electric-vehicle-infrastructure-strategy 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-hydrogen-strategy

It's zero emissions at the tailpipe, although their hydrogen strategy document doesn't talk much about cars but more for buses, trains, lorries.

Page 50 of the electric pdf is their street charging strategy, very politician speak - could, should, almost....

What is the long-term charging solution for those without off‑street parking?
There could be around 10 million electric cars and vans that are regularly parked overnight on-street in the UK by 2050. They will all need to access charging solutions that are as convenient and affordable as possible, and that minimise the impact on the UK’s electricity system. This will almost certainly be provided by a mix of charging solutions including some local on-street charging, some destination charging, some workplace charging and some rapid charging. Although there is insufficient evidence in 2022 to suggest a definitive optimum mix, even in 2050 there will be a clear need to (a) shift as much charging activity as possible into the off-peak to minimise the burden on the electricity system, and (b) to offer access to the lowest cost charging tariffs to consumers.
Both of these imperatives would suggest that ubiquitous, low cost, overnight on-street charging should be part of the solution. But it is not yet clear if there is a sustainable commercial model to deliver this, and there are potentially tricky interactions with local parking policies and street clutter. Other key factors such as grid reinforcements will also affect the commercial model for different charging solutions.
We will use the £450m Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (LEVI) Fund to explore deployment of local charging at scale, to better understand some of these challenges and how they can be overcome. We are committed to ensuring that there is no unnecessary penalty in terms of cost or convenience for electric vehicle drivers without driveways.

 

 

[George22]

3 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Cold weather for sure. 

Here are the charts from a brief internet scrape of reported range Vs average speed and temperature window. Curves are a poor fit given few data points.

Seemed to correlate with what I was getting. When it was hit in the summer I broke 60 miles a charge (on an eco driving mission). Just. But more usually I was getting 55 to 58. Whereas this time of year I've been getting anywhere between 44 and 50.

Good info many thanks. 

[Cyker]

Ahh yes, committed in the same way Sadiq KHAAAAN! had no plans to extend the ULEZ up to the M25 I'm sure!

The power grid just isn't ready and I can't see any investment going in to upgrading it until it's too late. To deploy street charging alone, the street circuits will need to be able to sustain 10s of megawatts for hours at a time, same with local retail parks, but those would be easier and less disruptive to upgrade which is why I think that should be the focus.

The disruption and cost to dig up every street to lay cables suitable for this will cost billions, not millions. Look at how much the 'Smart' Motorways have cost so far, and they're doing that as half-donkeyd as humanly possible!

[Nick72]

1 hour ago, Hayzee said:

I fear that may be a big assumption regarding price of a KwH in the near future, particularly at commercial outlets. Once we are using a much higher percentage of renewable energy I would agree.

I don't think it depends upon renewables. Energy cost is currently a function of demand Vs supply with the latter affected by the geopolitical situation more than anything else. If that is resolved in the next 3 to 5 years (when Russia's economy breaks, Putin dies, or whatever) normal service will be resumed along with firing up or increasing output of the coal fired, gas fired power stations plus new small nuclear reactors. Which is what's currently happening across Europe. Renewables is a long game to start with and suspect now an even longer game given the need for assured quick fix power solutions.

[Nick72]

3 hours ago, Yugguy1970 said:

There is one category you are forgetting.  I follow Top Gear on FB and all the commenters there are real men and real drivers who would not be seen dead in anything that isn't a manual V8 that does 10mpg 🤣

Rolls Royce have just brought out their first EV.  I don't think there is any other maker more suited to silent power, but according to that lot, it's an EV so therefore instantly crap.

Minority for sure.

[Strangely Brown]

https://news.sky.com/story/expansion-of-electric-car-charging-network-must-focus-on-location-data-says-report-12776313

Lots of government bolleaux speak at the end, none of which inspires any any confidence at all.

... and given that the roll-out of any future ubiquitous charging infrastructure will necessarily involve the support and involvement of local authorities I have even less of it.

Where are we going and why am I in this handcart?

[Strangely Brown]

3 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Minority for sure.

Yes, that is very much an edge case but there is a huge section of the population that drive for pleasure and leisure.

Not everyone has a world limited to their local area and a weekly trip to the supermarket.

[Nick72]

3 hours ago, Flatcoat said:

Academia….. mmmm… Production at scale in a form that is affordable for ordinary car users, not just Tesla and Audi etron buyers. The bandwidth needs of transport and car use is way beyond the capability of BEV as the sole solution. The head of Toyota has it right with his views, head of Stellantis has made similar comments and concerns about affordability of EV’s. The voting public have not been asked to vote on this enforced one size fits all as long as you are wealthy solution. I love the idea of electric propulsion however in the real world it is unachievable as the sole solution.  

And extensive industry engagement. Customer discovery throughout. No one invests billions without some assurance.

Market forces outside automotive driving the costs down and performance up. Aviation and robotics (fixed and mobile) in particular. Lithium batteries cost per kWh has fallen by a factor of almost 5 in the last 10 years. Demand in the other sectors which are growing rapidly will drive down cost further as a catalysing factor.

Toyota are notoriously late tech adoptors. They go for surity ahead of the fancy tech. Hence why our reversing camera is like something from 1984 recorded onto long play VHS tape. 😂

 

[Yugguy1970]

1 minute ago, Strangely Brown said:

Yes, that is very much an edge case but there is a huge section of the population that drive for pleasure and leisure.

Not everyone has a world limited to their local area and a weekly trip to the supermarket.

And not everyone can afford more than one car that has to do everything.  Fun is where you find it. 

[Nick72]

6 minutes ago, Strangely Brown said:

Yes, that is very much an edge case but there is a huge section of the population that drive for pleasure and leisure.

Not everyone has a world limited to their local area and a weekly trip to the supermarket.

Hence why the market has sub categories. EVs will never be for everyone this is true. But what is happening is over the next decade are huge performance gains and falling costs as evolutions to current tech occur (fuelled also by robotics and aviation). Infrastructure dependency is a function of vehicle use statistics and whether you can have a wall box at your home. The only barrier for me is a good winter motorway range. But that's already solved with the new high end BMWs and soon everyone else will follow but at much more affordable prices. 

[Strangely Brown]

8 minutes ago, Yugguy1970 said:

And not everyone can afford more than one car that has to do everything.  Fun is where you find it. 

I never mentioned more than one car. A great many people use their one car that has to do everything to include travel for pleasure and leisure.

I repeat: Not everyone has a world limited to their local area and a weekly trip to the supermarket.

[Nick72]

11 minutes ago, Strangely Brown said:

Yes, that is very much an edge case but there is a huge section of the population that drive for pleasure and leisure.

Not everyone has a world limited to their local area and a weekly trip to the supermarket.

True and I'm in the camp of needing to go on long time critical assured business trips. 400 mile round trips. Which is why the EVs don't work for me but a PHEV is perfect. But, that all changes when I can buy (or lease) a 400 plus mile BEV for under about 60k. No need for petrol at that point. No need to fret over range anxiety. I just charge it at home. Infrastructure dependency largely disappears. Unless you're a travelling salesman most folk do short trips and then some in the short trip plus occasional long trip category and then some in the frequent long trip category. The latter when combined with a lack of at home charging is where the real issue is once long range EVs become available at affordable prices (probably 5 years). Back to my original point. Full circle.

 

[Strangely Brown]

3 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Hence why the market has sub categories. EVs will never be for everyone this is true. But what is happening is over the next decade are huge performance gains and falling costs as evolutions to current tech occur (fuelled also by robotics and aviation). Infrastructure dependency is a function of vehicle use statistics and whether you can have a wall box at your home. The only barrier for me is a good winter motorway range. But that's already solved with the new high end BMWs and soon everyone else will follow but at much more affordable prices. 

I agree with you. Technology is moving on and costs are falling. The problem remains, though, that as the Battery capacity increases it simply takes longer to fill it up. The time to transfer a kWh of energy from the charger to the car is not coming down and, as far as I can see, is not likely to.

Maybe you're right and cars will eventually have sufficient range that the downtime between trips will always be long enough to charge to the owners satisfaction, or at least needs. 

[Cyker]

This is one reason I'm hoping manufacturers switch to the 800v system, but thanks to shortsighted idiots who keep saying that 400v is enough it's going to be a painful transition when it does happen and create yet another division.

800v will help mitigate the future increase in Battery capacity without needing cables that require a 2-man lift and cryogenic cable cooling.

One thing I think chargers could do with is an attendant - I think that would help reduce the amount of faulty chargers, as the self reporting system they all claim to have clearly doesn't work.

I was watching an amusing video where a new array of Electrify America chargers had been installed but were not working, and it turned out all the numbers had been assigned incorrectly, so you'd goto Charger 1 to charge, but had to select Charger 3 on the App (Or actually goto Charger 3 to use contactless  ), and despite it being reported by everyone who'd used it, it still hadn't been fixed, and apparently someone got so annoyed they carved the correct numbers into the paintwork of each charger  

[Flatcoat]

3 hours ago, Nick72 said:

And extensive industry engagement. Customer discovery throughout. No one invests billions without some assurance.

Market forces outside automotive driving the costs down and performance up. Aviation and robotics (fixed and mobile) in particular. Lithium batteries cost per kWh has fallen by a factor of almost 5 in the last 10 years. Demand in the other sectors which are growing rapidly will drive down cost further as a catalysing factor.

Toyota are notoriously late tech adoptors. They go for surity ahead of the fancy tech. Hence why our reversing camera is like something from 1984 recorded onto long play VHS tape. 😂

 

What does falling by a factor of 5 mean in real terms? have they fallen to 20% of their cost 10 years ago? Or does factor of 5 mean they cost more….? I appreciate you work in the sector but that doesn’t mean the predictions are accurate or objective. There is also a lot of concern that raw material supply is simply not capable of meeting demand and that tends to drive price higher. There is a need for a massive increase in mining to access the materials required and much of those metals and minerals is in countries with less than reliable leadership or controlled by China….. Of course a lot is being invested because the one size fits all legislation is such there is no choice. It doesn’t mean it will work out. Remember what happened to diesel? And if the environmental pollution issue is of such concern to EV buyers then I suggest they look at the real environmental impact of mining and manufacturing the materials required for their car Battery, motor and other components. 

[Yugguy1970]

3 hours ago, Strangely Brown said:

I never mentioned more than one car. A great many people use their one car that has to do everything to include travel for pleasure and leisure.

I repeat: Not everyone has a world limited to their local area and a weekly trip to the supermarket.

It's ok I heard you the first time.🤣

Flat, can't take anyone seriously with a hashtag of climatheoax.

[NASY]

Adrian it's refreshing to read a cut through the politically correct and get to what someone actually believes. EVs are a current go to greener look however it's pretty obvious that they only suit a minority of people. Saddest thing is that the people who need them most, city dwellers, are the least well placed to effectively run them. Strangely Brown , as ever, gets to one fundamental issue which challenges the notion that we don't require filling at home for our petrol/diesel vehicles, well if it was economically beneficial and so much more convenient then we would. It just takes a long time to transfer a large amount of electrical energy into a Battery, if sangria does it for you maybe okay, if you like a dram maybe not.

[Cyker]

There is nothing environmentally friendly about EVs and anyone claiming to buy one for 'green' reasons is either lying or badly misinformed; The fact is the construction of the EV has an environmental foot print that would take years to break even with an existing vehicle, especially a hybrid. You could argue that it benefits local pollution, but that's about it.

There isn't even a economic benefit now; The difference in base cost would already take years to recoup (Well over 10 vs my Mk1), but now that chargers are so expensive that lead time will be even longer, or potentially never.

The main advantages are, if you can charge at home - Then you never or at least rarely, have to waste time going to 'get fuel', and if you don't drive much the car won't have any oil/fuel going off issues, and the corresponding mechanical reliability, and lastly (For me the main advantage) the blistering performance and instant response that you can only get from a high powered electric motor  

[Hayzee]

8 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Renewables is a long game to start with and suspect now an even longer game given the need for assured quick fix power solutions.

We'll.....renewables provided 43% of UK electricity at the end of 2021 and has continued to grow during this year. Forecasts are seeing significant further investment and growth in 2023. Nuclear is in addition to this. Doesn't look like it's all that much of a long game for major reductions in relying on gas.

[Yugguy1970]

Watching a piece on charging this morning, seems like it requires people to think a little, a skill that is vanishing these days.

[Cyker]

Renewables are the cheapest and fastest power generation systems to set up so it should be possible to ramp them up quickly; If parts are available and planning permission obtained it can take as little as a few months to get them up and running vs several years for a conventional power plant. Their main downside is they can't provide consistent predictable power so storage systems would need to be factored in.

If they'd put a solar panel on every roof in every major city alone the amount of solar energy that would put out would go a long way to solving our power issues, and given they're going to need to upgrade the grid anyway for mass EV deployment anyway...

[Nick72]

10 hours ago, Hayzee said:

We'll.....renewables provided 43% of UK electricity at the end of 2021 and has continued to grow during this year. Forecasts are seeing significant further investment and growth in 2023. Nuclear is in addition to this. Doesn't look like it's all that much of a long game for major reductions in relying on gas.

Hadn't realised it was as high that. Thought it was about 33% and relatively static over the last 3 years and often the UKG includes waste and bio energy in that which is a bit misleading. Sometimes they even include nuclear. Renewables in terms of solar, wind, tidal, hydro, wave power is still much lower. Here are the charts... Renewable in the second chart includes bio and waste energy which is a bit dubious. It also doesn't include the energy we import, much of which is fossil fuel sourced. So, a case of lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Most renewables are a function of the weather and or diurnal cycle so you can't depend upon it unless you can store the energy. It's a topper upper in the main. To move to a much a higher percentage of renewables use we have to address the energy storage problem. Batteries are one solution here but on a huge scale. This is what makes it a long game.

 

[Nick72]

1 hour ago, Yugguy1970 said:

Watching a piece on charging this morning, seems like it requires people to think a little, a skill that is vanishing these days.

Planning indeed. Not many folks think or plan much. 

[Nick72]

14 minutes ago, Cyker said:

Renewables are the cheapest and fastest power generation systems to set up so it should be possible to ramp them up quickly; If parts are available and planning permission obtained it can take as little as a few months to get them up and running vs several years for a conventional power plant. Their main downside is they can't provide consistent predictable power so storage systems would need to be factored in.

If they'd put a solar panel on every roof in every major city alone the amount of solar energy that would put out would go a long way to solving our power issues, and given they're going to need to upgrade the grid anyway for mass EV deployment anyway...

I'm totally in agreement. It's why Tesla span out into solar roof panels with their batteries at the core as a storage solution. Local, distributed, micro generation and storage with 'proper' government incentives. Wished I had put solar on the roof when we moved several years back. But there were other things that needed fixing more immediately. Prices high and government incentives weak now.