Batteries

[Nick72]

14 hours ago, Cyker said:

There is nothing environmentally friendly about EVs and anyone claiming to buy one for 'green' reasons is either lying or badly misinformed; The fact is the construction of the EV has an environmental foot print that would take years to break even with an existing vehicle, especially a hybrid. You could argue that it benefits local pollution, but that's about it.

There isn't even a economic benefit now; The difference in base cost would already take years to recoup (Well over 10 vs my Mk1), but now that chargers are so expensive that lead time will be even longer, or potentially never.

The main advantages are, if you can charge at home - Then you never or at least rarely, have to waste time going to 'get fuel', and if you don't drive much the car won't have any oil/fuel going off issues, and the corresponding mechanical reliability, and lastly (For me the main advantage) the blistering performance and instant response that you can only get from a high powered electric motor  

Definitely not environmentally friendly on a holistic or global level. I agree with that. They are however much more friendly on a local level from a pollution perspective in towns and cities. Thinking about Air quality. 

You're right on the breakeven point. Long time to never at present. EVs have to come down to near comparable prices to their ICE including hybrids equivalents. This will happen in time and for some a breakeven will be more readily achievable and worthwhile. See what happens?

 

[Nick72]

16 hours ago, Flatcoat said:

What does falling by a factor of 5 mean in real terms? have they fallen to 20% of their cost 10 years ago? Or does factor of 5 mean they cost more….? I appreciate you work in the sector but that doesn’t mean the predictions are accurate or objective. There is also a lot of concern that raw material supply is simply not capable of meeting demand and that tends to drive price higher. There is a need for a massive increase in mining to access the materials required and much of those metals and minerals is in countries with less than reliable leadership or controlled by China….. Of course a lot is being invested because the one size fits all legislation is such there is no choice. It doesn’t mean it will work out. Remember what happened to diesel? And if the environmental pollution issue is of such concern to EV buyers then I suggest they look at the real environmental impact of mining and manufacturing the materials required for their car battery, motor and other components. 

Not my predictions or history analysis. Just the ones which are credible from credible sources in the public domain. Here's the Battery cost fall off I mentioned.

Lithium is much more abundant than the Sun headlines would suggest. Currently mined by particular techniques in particular places in the globe for which China has a strong share and hold over. Well known and has been the case for nearly 2 decades now. Many ways around these issues already underway but you may not wish me to write another essay.

 

Edit... Note the cost reduction tail off is associated with innovation S curve of the current chemistry and form factors involved. S curves overlap and we are beginning a new one with solid state batteries now. 

[Eddie G]

19 hours ago, Cyker said:

This is one reason I'm hoping manufacturers switch to the 800v system, but thanks to shortsighted idiots who keep saying that 400v is enough it's going to be a painful transition when it does happen and create yet another division.

800v will help mitigate the future increase in battery capacity without needing cables that require a 2-man lift and cryogenic cable cooling.

One thing I think chargers could do with is an attendant - I think that would help reduce the amount of faulty chargers, as the self reporting system they all claim to have clearly doesn't work.

I was watching an amusing video where a new array of Electrify America chargers had been installed but were not working, and it turned out all the numbers had been assigned incorrectly, so you'd goto Charger 1 to charge, but had to select Charger 3 on the App (Or actually goto Charger 3 to use contactless  ), and despite it being reported by everyone who'd used it, it still hadn't been fixed, and apparently someone got so annoyed they carved the correct numbers into the paintwork of each charger  

I lol at the 24 Tesla que at Waitrose car park in South Mims over Christmas, around a 2 hour wait for a 15 minute charge 😂 

[Nick72]

19 hours ago, Strangely Brown said:

I agree with you. Technology is moving on and costs are falling. The problem remains, though, that as the battery capacity increases it simply takes longer to fill it up. The time to transfer a kWh of energy from the charger to the car is not coming down and, as far as I can see, is not likely to.

Maybe you're right and cars will eventually have sufficient range that the downtime between trips will always be long enough to charge to the owners satisfaction, or at least needs. 

Completely agree on the fact that a larger Battery takes longer to charge and that we are already at the limit of home charger power supply and arguably at the limit of infrastructure and the practicalities involved in that. The bigger batteries simply provide a means of not having to stop off at a services on your occasional long trip, rolling the dice as to whether the charging station is available and functioning. Which from the recce over the last few years of business trips is really problematic. 2 or 3 cars waiting for someone to charge theirs for a half hour. No thanks. So the bigger Battery avoids this issue (a dependency upon unfamiliar and variable infrastructure) for such long trips but provided you've got a 7kW upwards home charger to get your full SOC or you can (able to) visit somewhere local and leave the car on charge for a couple of hours on a 150kW DC fast charger a day or so before your long trip. We have two of those at the local supermarket. 

Did see some driver mileage analytics somewhere. It was an average mileage histogram with longest journeys also plotted. Need to find that again as I think this is what the EV makers have been banking on. That is to say, most folks can do their daily mileage business with the current crop of Battery capacities and will take the pain of stop offs on their infrequent long trips that exceed battery range. May work for perhaps up to a half of potential motorists? Doesn't work for me however and I'll probably be getting a RAV4P GR Sport if the suspension is not too hard when I need to reorder in 12 months or so. But, this will be the last ICE car I get and am pretty sure of that. I'll be waiting for (wanting) a 400mile range, 400hp, 150kW DC fast charge capable, AWD, SUV BEV for under 60k.😂🙏

 

[Cyker]

I must admit I'm hoping these sodium batteries don't turn out to be vapourware as, while Lithium is technically abundant, it seems concentrated in places that make it less attractive, whereas sodium is much more globally accessible!

But we're a long way out from that yet, esp. judging by the lack of solid-state batteries, and Toyota have been quietly working on that in the background for near a decade now!

(I strongly think that's why they have been holding back on EVs - I reckon they were banking on being first to market with solid-state batteries, which they're hoping will blow everyone using normal lithium cells out of the water, but they were working to the original 2040 deadline and are just not there yet. The BZ line feel like a rush/compromise just to get something out there to shut up the EVangelists)

 

[Yugguy1970]

I follow this chap on FB.

He's not daft.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02BsDY1WsoCC3qiNnVmhzLN2Cd6PcyW1mZrZzUUCMV8qzWgb2TXwxjBXFC36hKseaKl&id=100066543942038

 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0hUSLhVECJpLbUX2kUHyhM5TaPTUCuphptvrGnWT9XCubVmkBYxUFFdBsqErMSM77l&id=1935553650010011

[ernieb]

2 hours ago, Nick72 said:

I'm totally in agreement. It's why Tesla span out into solar roof panels with their batteries at the core as a storage solution. Local, distributed, micro generation and storage with 'proper' government incentives. Wished I had put solar on the roof when we moved several years back. But there were other things that needed fixing more immediately. Prices high and government incentives weak now.

And as my son you say, solar panels unavailable.

[ernieb]

1 hour ago, Eddie G said:

I lol at the 24 Tesla que at Waitrose car park in South Mims over Christmas, around a 2 hour wait for a 15 minute charge 😂 

I also saw a couple stuck no lights in the ‘live lane’ awaiting recovery. 

[TonyHSD]

I have seen many times bev  without  any lights stuck on a hard shoulder. They could possibly use the parking lights and hazards on fed from the 12v Battery for safety reasons, but seems like it’s not a common practice within evs drivers. Perhaps like the bmw owners who hydro locked their cars at Rufford ford and don’t know how to set the car in Neutral to easily pull away from the water., plenty of videos. Everyone can drive a car but not everyone can be called a “driver” 👌👍