Volvo EX30 Dual motor ER or RAV4 PHEV GR Sport?

[nlee]

12 hours ago, Cyker said:

I'm more hopeful for things like sodium ion, if they can stabilize it (It cracks me up that sugar, the current most reviled substance second only to diesel, might be the solution

Lost me there. Did you mean salt?

[Nick72]

17 hours ago, Flatcoat said:

I think Toyota might disagree re Hydrogen! As for the earlier comments from various posts, the forecast improvements in battery and motor efficacy (almost there….yep…..ooops there goes another flying pig on its way to recharge) are like politicians jam tomorrow promises before an election. Largely Fictional with barely a passing resemblance to the truth. However more than anything else, when people have had access to cheap personal flexible ICE powered transport forcibly taken away from them by making its BEV replacement unaffordable and less flexible, politicians are playing with fire. 

I don't care for the politicians, only the science and engineering including industrialization.

Toyota are well aware of the hydrogen challenges in terms of infrastructure and accept it is as big if not bigger than EV infrastructure. Some of us have been exploring hydrogen in aviation and Space for over a decade so we understand the issues well.

I think the Battery and electric tech facts are, well, facts. It can be seen in the scientific literature and in terms what's been happening with production vehicles. My factor of c. 3 over ten years still stands and most in the know would agree.

But you're right, if there are cheaper, better alternatives through ICE and mild hybrids to PHEVs then that's great, it's about choice rather than rail roading. Everyone's threshold is different in terms of the ICE Vs EV crossover point is. They can decide for themselves.

 

[Nick72]

17 hours ago, Cyker said:

That article is exactly the sort of misleading half-truth that annoys me - That 700Wh/kg cell is the battery equivalent of those people who overclock their processors to 7bazillion GHz - It's a fun experiment under lab conditions, but has zero real-world application because it would survive maybe a handful of charge-cycles, and doesn't actually advance the science any - It's just a publicity stunt.

I suspect we're already 70-80% done with conventional lithium battery tech - I honestly don't think there's much left to drag out of the actual chemistry as it's a very old technology now and there are only so many chemical combinations they can try. You never know tho'!

I'm more hopeful for things like sodium ion, if they can stabilize it (It cracks me up that sugar, the current most reviled substance second only to diesel, might be the solution  ), or if they can think of novel ways to package solid-state cells that allow them to pack more in.

Fluorine-based cells may also be a possibility, but I'm even more scared of fluorine than I am of hydrogen so I'm in two minds about that one!   

 

You're absolutely right, for both it's current 'dirtiness', and it's difficulty to handle. I'm hoping they start looking at alternative ways of packaging it, chemically.

Like, some years ago, someone invented a way to 'gel' jet fuel in such a way that it would be even harder to set alight than diesel (So in the event of a plane crash it wouldn't explode - In a test they dragged a tank full of it along the ground at 70mph and despite the fuel pod wearing through and sparking the fuel didn't ignite!) but required only minor modifications to make it work in conventional aircraft. It was scuppered by politicking in the end, but I do wonder if they could do something with hydrogen; Pair it with other elements in such a way that it can be removed with some sort of catalyst reaction but remain stable and (preferably) liquid until then.

Ironically, most of the ways we can do that currently involve carbon, which sortof defeats the point.

One thing I'm surprised nobody seems to have tried is Peroxide - H2O2 - It has no carbon and is a shedload easier to deal with than pure hydrogen. The only problem is you'd need an extra unit in the car to decompose it into H2 and O2 without it turning into water (Is that even possible?!)

 

There are many options including different pros and cons. The lithium chemistry solutions are a very long way from theoretical maximum when all things are considered (safety, recharge cycles, max charge and discharge rate). Theoretical max (specific energy) is about a factor of 10 away, just for reference. To understand this one needs to look closely at how Battery chemistry works and the crude manufacturing methods to date which kill performance.

Hydrogen has been used in aviation. Was involved in some projects on that a long while ago. Combustion and fuel cell separately. Infrastructure as mentioned in another post, is the major issue with hydrogen along with aspects like; volume and rate generation (that's green), transport and storage. That's much harder to make work than electric vehicles unless you need a space rocket with added LOx.

 

[Nick72]

13 hours ago, displaced said:

I remember someone telling me that about the e-Golf - going to be a game changer, no other EV (or car for that matter) will be able to compete. Didn't happen.

Agree. A whole world of hype versus reality hasn't helped the manufacturers cause.

[Nick72]

12 hours ago, displaced said:

Rav4 still showing as sold out at Toyota.co.uk. I think it's been like that since December.

Maybe it'll be sorted by your deadline next year - but I worry there's a UK specific problem that Toyota can't/don't want to get around.

Annoys me that it still gets industry prizes like "Autoexpress UK Dog Owners Car if the year 2023" when there's not a single UK Dog owner been able to purchase one in 2023.

This is part of my original problem in the post. Sure I'm tempted by an EV that could meet my requirements and offer some better tech bonus and acceleration performance whilst also costing me less as a company car owner. But I'm very concerned that I simply may not be able to order another R4P including what I really want, the GR Sport version. Hence need to look at alternatives and I'm not impressed by other manufacturer's PHEVs. And I want a PHEV (or EV if up to the job) because most of my personal miles are electric. I like the calm, quiet, smooth electric drive experience. But I also like the 7 or 8% BiK tax! Basically it means I get a third off what is technically a lease along with a company contribution allowance with insurance and everything else covered by blanket corporate policies. It's very low cost hassle free motoring. And soon set to be even cheaper with an EV equivalent.

[Strangely Brown]

43 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

But you're right, if there are cheaper, better alternatives through ICE and mild hybrids to PHEVs then that's great, it's about choice rather than rail roading. Everyone's threshold is different in terms of the ICE Vs EV crossover point is. They can decide for themselves.

 

Isn't that rather the point, though. It's not about choice since ICE, and hybrids are being removed from the [new] market in the pretty near future.

[Strangely Brown]

53 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Toyota are well aware of the hydrogen challenges in terms of infrastructure and accept it is as big if not bigger than EV infrastructure. Some of us have been exploring hydrogen in aviation and Space for over a decade so we understand the issues well.

 

I'd say that Lord Bamford (JCB) must be pretty clued up on Hydrogen too. He is effectively betting the proverbial farm on it as the future for heavy plant. Personally, I think he is right. There is no way for Battery tech to work in that environment and the same will likely be true for heavy haulage and farming.

In case you haven't see it:

This rush to Net-Zero is all rather shortsighted and not really thought through just to so that we (UK) can virtue signal how much we want to be first.

There is a never a convenient wall and firing squad when you need one.

 

[Cyker]

10 hours ago, nlee said:

Lost me there. Did you mean salt?

Hah you're half right I suppose!

It's kindof the same idea as lithium but using sodium instead - It has more potential for energy storage, but one big problem is it swells and shrinks a lot more when going through charge cycles, which causes it to break down faster. If they can solve that it will rival lithium as sodium is much more abundant, and much cheaper.

 

5 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Theoretical max (specific energy) is about a factor of 10 away, just for reference.

That would be amazing; Do you have a source for that? I thought we'd unlocked a lot more of the potential than that, which would explain why progress has slowed so much.

If they can get lithium cells to 10x current energy density then that'd pretty much solve all the problems EV's currently have!

5 hours ago, Nick72 said:

Agree. A whole world of hype versus reality hasn't helped the manufacturers cause.

Yeah, I think letting the marketers at both EVs and batteries too early has done a lot of long-term damage to their reputations; Part of the slump in used-prices is because people don't trust them due to all the over-promising and under-delivering.

They really need some genuine breakthroughs and get them to market to improve customer confidence.

 

 

[Strangely Brown]

1 hour ago, Cyker said:

If they can get lithium cells to 10x current energy density then that'd pretty much solve all the problems EV's currently have!

Not really. It just means they take 10x as long to charge.

If it can be made commercially viable then Julian Thompson's [designer of Lotus Elise] latest venture may have some promise.

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/woah-nyobolts-elise-based-ev-charges-six-minutes

[Cyker]

10x energy density increase doesn't mean they'd put 10x the Battery in the car you know...  

We only really need 2-3x more than what we currently have for the tipping point to make them more useful for normal people - 10x would just mean they could use much smaller batteries, which then means EV's won't have to be the giant land barges they are currently tending towards, and would make my 70mph 300+ miles Yaris much more likely this side of 2050!

 

 

[Nick72]

28 minutes ago, Strangely Brown said:

Not really. It just means they take 10x as long to charge.

If it can be made commercially viable then Julian Thompson's [designer of Lotus Elise] latest venture may have some promise.

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/woah-nyobolts-elise-based-ev-charges-six-minutes

Not necessarily. Solid state lithium batteries can charge much faster.

https://www.topspeed.com/toyotas-solid-state-batteries-up-to-932-miles/

 

[Nick72]

7 hours ago, Strangely Brown said:

Isn't that rather the point, though. It's not about choice since ICE, and hybrids are being removed from the [new] market in the pretty near future.

Not so much in the short term but the longer term. This is the government pressure to reduce emissions, even though much of the argument is actually flawed given new environmental problems are popping up. But, by which time we'll have lower cost BEV options with longer range than a 10 gallon petrol fuel tank.

[Cyker]

It's starting to look like the Grid will be the biggest limiting factor rather than the car, Battery or chargers!

[Nick72]

21 minutes ago, Cyker said:

10x energy density increase doesn't mean they'd put 10x the battery in the car you know...  

We only really need 2-3x more than what we currently have for the tipping point to make them more useful for normal people - 10x would just mean they could use much smaller batteries, which then means EV's won't have to be the giant land barges they are currently tending towards, and would make my 70mph 300+ miles Yaris much more likely this side of 2050!

 

 

Indeed. TBH a real world 500 mile Battery problem covers it for more than 90% of folk. In a car that now weighs similar to any other of a similar class ICE. 

[Nick72]

1 minute ago, Cyker said:

It's starting to look like the Grid will be the biggest limiting factor rather than the car, battery or chargers!

Agree with that for sure. Not just the total demand but the kind of load. EVs like all our other gadgets introduce a capacitive load on the grid. The grud was designed for inductive loads (water heaters, kettles etc.). They've been upgrading the substations to cope with greater capacitive loads over the past decade. Friend of mine is a consultant to the National Grid folks. It's still a big issue.

[Nick72]

7 hours ago, Strangely Brown said:

I'd say that Lord Bamford (JCB) must be pretty clued up on Hydrogen too. He is effectively betting the proverbial farm on it as the future for heavy plant. Personally, I think he is right. There is no way for battery tech to work in that environment and the same will likely be true for heavy haulage and farming.

In case you haven't see it:

This rush to Net-Zero is all rather shortsighted and not really thought through just to so that we (UK) can virtue signal how much we want to be first.

There is a never a convenient wall and firing squad when you need one.

 

Farming can work. Generate your hydrogen on demand locally using electrolysis powered by renewables from all the land one has for solar and wind. Fuel up locally. Makes sense. Just not so much anywhere else.

[Cyker]

6 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Indeed. TBH a real world 500 mile battery problem covers it for more than 90% of folk. In a car that now weighs similar to any other of a similar class ICE. 

Agreed - I've been saying from the beginning 300-miles real-world range in a normal-sized car is the tipping point; If they can get 400, 500, 600 miles then there will be more than enough utility that they will be able to compete with ICE cars purely on merit and not just their dubious environmental claims.

And it's not just about range - Having 500-600 miles of range means you don't have to be afraid to use the heater or AC, like a lot of EV owners currently seem to fear as it has such a big impact on the range!

 

4 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Agree with that for sure. Not just the total demand but the kind of load. EVs like all our other gadgets introduce a capacitive load on the grid. The grud was designed for inductive loads (water heaters, kettles etc.). They've been upgrading the substations to cope with greater capacitive loads over the past decade. Friend of mine is a consultant to the National Grid folks. It's still a big issue.

That's a good point actually - Do EVs and chargers not perform active power factor correction to fix that?

This was a big deal in the PC world - All ATX PSUs were required to support active power factor correction, after it was found old PSUs were pulling more power than was being measured. Now it's even a marketing thing, with high-end PSUs boasting higher levels of power factor correction!

 

[NASY]

I think it's really nice that tech types are busy trying hard to work up ways of increasing the energy density of batteries and hence we can see the arrival of acceptable range and acceptable weight BEVs. Big issue is still getting the energy into the vehicle at an acceptable rate and increasingly importantly acceptable cost. I would guess the early adopters of BEVs were really easy targets, off street parking, money and lifestyle consciousness, the next tranche will be much harder and really need affordability factors to be considered in public charging infrastructure and rightly so if we are serious about climate change, which of course I'm realising, sadly, we are not, just bluster.

[Strangely Brown]

32 minutes ago, Cyker said:

10x energy density increase doesn't mean they'd put 10x the battery in the car you know...  

We only really need 2-3x more than what we currently have for the tipping point to make them more useful for normal people - 10x would just mean they could use much smaller batteries, which then means EV's won't have to be the giant land barges they are currently tending towards, and would make my 70mph 300+ miles Yaris much more likely this side of 2050!

 

 

Please excuse the brain f4rt. You are, of course, correct. Smaller batteries, higher density and faster charging would all be very welcome..

ETA: Silly software would not allow correct spelling.

[Cyker]

No worries  

My views tend to be a bit weird as I really want an EV but I'm massively EV skeptical  

 

6 minutes ago, NASY said:

I think it's really nice that tech types are busy trying hard to work up ways of increasing the energy density of batteries and hence we can see the arrival of acceptable range and acceptable weight BEVs. Big issue is still getting the energy into the vehicle at an acceptable rate and increasingly importantly acceptable cost. I would guess the early adopters of BEVs were really easy targets, off street parking, money and lifestyle consciousness, the next tranche will be much harder and really need affordability factors to be considered in public charging infrastructure and rightly so if we are serious about climate change, which of course I'm realising, sadly, we are not, just bluster.

That's why for all their faults, I have to give props to Tesla as they were literally the only manufacturer with any brains on what the best initial target audience for an EV is - Not the masses, but rich people.

By making their cars essentially executive luxury performance vehicles, they targeted the sort of person who doesn't really care about cost, but wants something luxurious, exclusive, with bragging rights and shedloads of performance, and they fulfilled that brief almost perfectly.

Making cars for the masses will be a lot harder  because the base-cost of an EV is so much higher than ICE - We still want the utility and at least some performance, but not for the cost!

 

 

[Strangely Brown]

6 minutes ago, NASY said:

I think it's really nice that tech types are busy trying hard to work up ways of increasing the energy density of batteries and hence we can see the arrival of acceptable range and acceptable weight BEVs. Big issue is still getting the energy into the vehicle at an acceptable rate and increasingly importantly acceptable cost. I would guess the early adopters of BEVs were really easy targets, off street parking, money and lifestyle consciousness, the next tranche will be much harder and really need affordability factors to be considered in public charging infrastructure and rightly so if we are serious about climate change, which of course I'm realising, sadly, we are not, just bluster.

Yes.
The biggest problems are at the two ends of the process: generation and delivery (charging), both in terms of capacity and cost. It really will not matter how much range the car has, whatever the Battery, if it cannot be charged from public infrastructure at a rate and cost approaching equivalence with ICE.

[Strangely Brown]

14 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

Farming can work. Generate your hydrogen on demand locally using electrolysis powered by renewables from all the land one has for solar and wind. Fuel up locally. Makes sense. Just not so much anywhere else.

Well, if it can't work for heavy plant and diesel continues to be a pariah then you can say goodbye to pretty much all construction and civil engineering.

[Cyker]

Yeah, I'm imagining this horrific Neon Genesis Evangelion-esque future, but instead of giant murder robots we'll have plant machinery and HGVs tethered with long power cables  

They were talking about having a train/tram-like pantograph overhead power-line system on sections of the motorway for HGVs - I'd like to see how long that'd last before Helch and co vandelize those or you suddenly get camouflaged tents on the verges full of Weed growing paraphernalia tapping off the power...!  

 

[Marcusthehat]

17 hours ago, Strangely Brown said:

I'd say that Lord Bamford (JCB) must be pretty clued up on Hydrogen too. He is effectively betting the proverbial farm on it as the future for heavy plant. Personally, I think he is right. There is no way for battery tech to work in that environment and the same will likely be true for heavy haulage and farming.

In case you haven't see it:

This rush to Net-Zero is all rather shortsighted and not really thought through just to so that we (UK) can virtue signal how much we want to be first.

There is a never a convenient wall and firing squad when you need one.

 

I watched that video, and with some interest since Wright bus is just up the road in Ballymena.

However the ludicrous ineffiency of the JCB recharging "solution" is a  significent issue I can only imagine. Especially with the "dirty" energy hungry nature of hydrogen production,  compared to a synthetic liquid hydrocarbon type fuel.

I would be curious how transport technology would have developed to now, in the absence of the generated hysteria over PM10's, CO2 , etc etc etc, without  all the Governmental mandates, restrictions, taxes and subsidies we have endured, which MUST have distorted true engineering solutions to our transport needs. 

P.S.

I am, and have been for years, aware of the diesel soot that accumulates on the inside of vehicle windscreens, and therefore any nearby lungs.  .  .  .

Marcus

 

 

[Marcusthehat]

10 hours ago, Cyker said:

It's starting to look like the Grid will be the biggest limiting factor rather than the car, battery or chargers!

The Mammoth in the room!