Driverless cars on UK roads by end of 2026?

[Haliotis]

According to BBC News, transport secretary Mark Harper has claimed that driverless cars could be on some UK roads by the end of 2026.  In the blurb, he seems to have hopes that this will make our roads safer for all who use the highway although, readings through the text, I get the impression that, initially at any rate, this could be restricted to motorways and, perhaps, some dual carriageways.  This immediately brings a problem of drivers obeying any such disciplines.  Then, for many years, driverless cars will be in the minority. So, drivers of conventional vehicles will still be  engaging in accidents, and I certainly don’t believe that driverless cars will have the technology, ever, to deal with all the situations that a conventionally-driven car can present.  

I have spent my whole life in engineering, and I have yet to be convinced that there is such a thing as 100% fail-safe technology.  Over time, driverless cars will occasionally produce fault-causing accidents.  And this asks the question, would a driver of such a car, once they have accustomed themselves to it, be capable of suddenly taking over and avert an accident? - and this is assuming that the car would allow them to do so.

One thing is for certain - you will never find me riding passenger in a driverless car.  I have never used the self-parking facility on my own car, can’t bring myself to trust it, and know of several other owners with this facility who are equally averse to it.  After 70 years of being the one in control of my vehicle, I am not likely to hand the reins to a robot, no matter what abilities are claimed by the manufacturer.

[Yugguy1970]

When they can successfully traverse country roads with no verges and wandering livestock I might consider it.

I think it will be a while.

[Haliotis]

22 minutes ago, Yugguy1970 said:

When they can successfully traverse country roads with no verges and wandering livestock I might consider it.

I think it will be a while.

I’m with you there, Guy.   If I were in charge of a truly recognised driverless car, the last thing I would be is relaxed.  I would be constantly listening and waiting for it to do something wrong, and by the end of a journey I would be a bag of nerves.  As a passenger, I would be ten times worse.

When it does come to legislation for the use of driverless cars, I can imagine a raft of arguments for and against them.  Some of the arguments will be on technology-based opinions (not likely to be government ministers - their’s will be subject to where their investments lie).  As for the House of Lords, any conclusions they arrive at will depend on at what point of the discussions they wake up!

The viewpoints of the road safety groups will be interesting - will they decide that any driverless car is safer than having a real driver behind the wheel, or will they realise that the main mass of experienced drivers are safer than reliance on large volumes of driverless cars being fail-safe? 

[Bper]

Little argument and no doubt total autonomous driverless cars will in the distant future become the norm as they are currently being trialled in Japan and the USA. However today IMO very little chance of that happening here. 

 

We understand the technology that has already been incorporated into modern vehicles who already have elements of autonomy driver assist features, such as pedestrian detection/avoidance and lane departure warning/correction etc but total autonomous vehicles are decades away.

Take the example of EV implementation and the numerous infrastructure issues as an example.

I would be more concerned about potential Pay Per Mile driving being introduced in the near future then worrying about Autonomous vehicles.🚙

[Haliotis]

Hi Bob,  I agree with pretty well all of what you say.  It is obvious that the motor manufacturers have been using the motorist as a test bed for many of the elements that are aimed at the eventual introduction of the driverless car.   I have experimented with the lane discipline of my own Toyota C-HR.  Driving on the M69 late at night, and with the cruise control on, I have held the steering wheel loosely in my hands and allowed the car to control me in the near side lane.  The car has successfully  guided me along the carriageway, including the two slow curves approaching the  junction with the M1.   However, to trust a driverless car on a daily basis is, for me, quite another matter.

You mention the potential “pay per mile” that frequently gets raised.  Here, I would share your concern.  Such a move would be discriminatory, as it would obviously limit driving by how much a car owner could afford to pay to use the road over a period of time.  And it could be used for regulatory purposes in this context - the wealthy could enjoy more road space for themselves, whilst Joe Public runs out of cash and has to wait for his/her next pay packet.   I would hope that the motorists in their hundreds of thousands would rise up and force any government low enough to introduce such a measure to think again.

[Cyker]

I get why they think it's needed, as they shot themselves in both feet and the crotch with this ill-planned EV transition, and need something to fill the void left by the eventual loss of the massive amount of money they get from fuel duty and VAT on fuel, and it would make it fairer as EVs pay much less tax per 'fuel' (Although they get shafted enough as it is with public charging prices; I think it costs well over double per mile for a publicly charged EV than my Mk4 Yaris!)

I wouldn't be against it per-se, if they also removed the double-tax on fuel and VED - We have a pseudo double-tax pay per mile currently from the fuel tax already. (Or just the VAT in the case of EVs)

However, the difference is currently you essentially get rewarded for having a more efficient vehicle which the pay-per-mile would remove (Thus further encouraging the use of less efficient vehicles like the flat-rate VED change did), and they will no doubt use it as an excuse to deploy some ridiculously draconian system like fitting GPS trackers to everyone's cars or adding numberplate tracking cameras in such numbers even China would be embarrassed at, neither of which is acceptable.

I also don't trust them to not just up the tax whenever they feel like they need more money, which they currently can't do so easily with the fuel and VAT, but do regularly with the VED.

If I could trust them to implement it fairly and reasonably then I'd be less opposed to it, but given the current track record of such things I absolutely don't trust them to implement it fairly, reasonably or competently.

 

With driverless cars, I still haven't seen anyone address a fundamental problem - Liability.

 

[Haliotis]

It has already been mooted in media articles that manufacturers could be held liable for driverless cars causing accidents.  Since service dealerships will ultimately carry out maintenance on the cars, perhaps they may also come under fire for liability?

There are also potential problems associated with how the cars’ onboard cameras interpret signage on, or seen from, positions visible from the actual road lanes.  Highway maintenance gangs would need to be more careful as to how they placed warning sinage, and remove same from completed roadworks instead of, as they often do now, leaving it at the roadside.

As a recent example of possible confusion, a motorist received a penalty for entering a bus lane, but the “culprit” was someone walking adjacent to the lane, wearing a jumper which carried a similar representation of that driver’s personal number plate.

And I wonder how a driverless car would respond to the ‘blues-and-twos’ of an emergency vehicle, where such drivers regularly disregard traffic law to find a quick way through any delaying situations?

Driverless cars were briefly discussed today on TalkTV.  Debating where driverless technology might initially take place, lorrries on motorways was mentioned. EEK! - imagine a 38-tonne wagon going AWOL on a motorway!! - it doesn’t bare thinking about.

[Cyker]

TBH, motorways are easy and the most suitable situation for auto-driving; It's when said lorry tries to go through a quiet village and gets stuck between an ancient oak tree and Mrs Higgins' slate wall that the fun begins  

[Derek.w]

Well at the moment do not trust self drive cars you still need to take control if the automatic system cannot or you may just end up as a statistic in a file of deceased drivers/passangers!.

[Yugguy1970]

You just know that because the scrotes know an AI car will always brake, they'll be jumping in front of every car.

[mpm235]

Sadiq Kahn will want to charge them extra to operate in London.

[Haliotis]

11 hours ago, Yugguy1970 said:

You just know that because the scrotes know an AI car will always brake, they'll be jumping in front of every car.

Until they jump in front of one that isn’t AI !!!

4 hours ago, mpm235 said:

Sadiq Kahn will want to charge them extra to operate in London.

Who is he going to send the charge to, when everyone in the car can claim to have been a passenger?

[Bper]

How is the future of autonomous vehicles to be interpreted, are we talking about some driver interactions, steering, speed control etc., or total autonomy with the driver becoming the passenger in the back of the vehicle where the only interaction is to tell the car the final destination?

Liability for accidents currently handled for part autonomous vehicles are driver or third party liability. However, what about total autonomous vehicles if the burden of insurance claims are placed on the manufacturers then they will no doubt distance themselves due to the huge financial pressures this could potentially place on them. Should they be told by the Government to accept liability, it would severely hamper the production and delivery due to increased rigorous testing to iron out bugs in software, along with any mechanical and electrical issues etc.,

This would no doubt force a significant rise in the cost of the vehicle to offset any insurance claims which would hit sales dramatically.

So who today takes responsibility for accidents directly attributed to manufacturing faults or software errors? How are accidents that the driver says was directly caused by any of the driver assist safety systems already employed today handled.

How are insurance claims today with part autonomous vehicles involved in accidents confirmed with the driver's explanation that manufacturing or software faults had directly lead to an accident and was not attributed to a driver error?

Should total autonomous cars in the future perhaps have a black box recorder similar to aircraft, where it records the entire journey and all aspects of the cars mechanical and electrical functions. 

As the registered keepers of future total autonomous vehicles, how would any insurance work for them and what liabilities would be placed on the owner who has no direct control of the vehicle?

It will be interesting to see how the future ownership and the insurance of these vehicles unfolds.🚘

 

[Haliotis]

In spite of strict quality control, conventional cars are not without their recalls due to design/manufacturing faults.  The complexity of driverless cars is certain to bring recalls but, in these cases it is reasonable to conclude that some will be of tragic magnitude.  Regardless of any amount of technological forethought and/or Quality Assurance procedures, these cars WILL develop faults.  And the trend will continue into the maintenance of the cars, where engineers make a mistake, or fail to spot an evolving problem.

My personal opinion is that the developers of AI technology cannot resist the opportunity to put their research into practice, and have conned technology-ignorant governments to allow such monstrosities onto our roads.

One of the most famous, and erroneous, claims is that it will make the roads safer.  If drivers cannot properly control a conventional car, what are the chances of them “finding” ways to send a driverless car haywire?

[Cyker]

I just get increasingly terrified the more dependent cars are on software - Computer software is a what the americans would call a dumpster fire; Very few software houses follow traditional good coding practise, instead going for the new hotness which is rapid development where you get milestones out the door as quickly as possible and don't stop to fix bugs before moving onto implementing the next feature but instead just try and roll it all into the development cycle.

This is why e.g. Windows 10 and now 11 have been the persistently buggiest versions of Windows ever released, and why launch-day patches for new large software packages is the norm rather than the exception these days.

The thought of that spreading to cars gives me nightmares, esp. with braking, accelerating and now steering slowly shifting over to being 'by-wire' instead of a direct mechanical input. At the moment ECUs and stuff are subject to more stringent checks, but I feel that's being slowly eroded as other parts like the infotainment are already much looser.

 

[Haliotis]

I think I’ll join you in your feeling of terror, Cyker.  Although aware of the fly-by-wire technology, I had not considered that brakes and steering would be in this category.  Of all the critically necessary ability for a driver to be in control, braking and steering must come top priority.  Failure in most systems can usually be dealt with by the driver, but any major faults that may cause a driver to have no control to brake and steer leads to only one outcome, and it isn’t a pretty thought.

[Cyker]

On the bright side, the vision-blocking thickness of the A, B and C pillars and the incredible number of air bags in our cars will protect us from that outcome!  

 

[Bper]

With just reading a few posts on this subject you can see the potential problems that can arise. Whatever the case the one thing that must be at the forefront if total autonomous vehicles are to introduced is safety.

In a sense I suppose there are comparisons with airplanes that are all but autonomous with the sophistication of the safety systems incorporated. Its taken many decades and sadly loss of life to iron out many of the problems that make travelling by air what it is today.

The difference is the roads and motorways have thousands of cars travelling backwards and forwards in many directions and the level of monitoring to ensure passenger safety in total autonomous vehicles IMO will not work with the current technology available.

[Haliotis]

Absolutely agree with you, Bob.   The problems will be the pro-driverless groups - many with vested interests in getting them onto the roads, versus people such as myself (I was a senior design engineer) can see and consider the many pitfalls that threaten the viability of driverless cars.

In one TV programme, it was mentioned that early use of driverless vehicles might be commercial transport on the motorways.  The thought of a driverless 38-tonne vehicle on a busy motorway terrifies me.

There will be accidents, but in the early days the incidence of these being driverless cars will be insignificant compared with conventional vehicles, simply because of the shear numbers of the latter, and I can imagine the road safety pundits claiming that the driverless ones have proven to be safer.  Nothing so false, of course - you simply would only need to compare the percentages of each type, one against the other.

As I have previously did, using the lane guidance function, my C-HR has successfully negotiated the M69, including the curves, on several occasions.  During this time I have kept my hands loosely on the steering wheel, ready to take control if the car did start to wander.  But it has taught me one simple fact - if it was a full-blown driverless car, I would still be unable to bring myself to take my hands away from the wheel.

[dannyboy413]

I don't know what the problem is. Dig small channels in the roads, stick some brush handle or something to the underneath of the front axle so that it fits into the road channels, activate intelligent cruise control and you've cracked it. 😄

Okay, on a serious note, I just can not see totally driverless cars being on our roads in 10 years, let alone 3!

 

[bigblock]

Could a driverless car avoid all the potholes on our lovely UK roads I wonder? 

[Bper]

1 hour ago, dannyboy413 said:

I don't know what the problem is. Dig small channels in the roads, stick some brush handle or something to the underneath of the front axle so that it fits into the road channels, activate intelligent cruise control and you've cracked it. 😄

Okay, on a serious note, I just can not see totally driverless cars being on our roads in 10 years, let alone 3!

 

Hi David,this sounds like scalextric to me. Now that's a brilliant idea 😂

[Rhymes with Paris]

I thought that they were already here.

Just this afternoon around 4,an apparently driverless car pulled out of an Aldi carpark, with no heed to moving traffic on the road, and swerved across to the access road to McDonald's and Sainsbury's.

Near a traffic light junction with the main road.

First proper emergency stop I have done in the Yaris, and also the first I have done in many a year.

Shook me up a bit I can tell you, and threw my baseball cap, grinder, and hoodie off the passenger seat.

No way of seeing this exit before you get to it,due to backed up traffic all round this small area, with a few supermarkets and other retail shops, and of course my favourite McDonald's car park for the Sunday night max power meets on da hood.😉

It only worries me on near misses like this when I don't know what else I could have done,apart from being observant, careful, and 15-20 mph.

So it was either driverless,or the driver had had a recent lobotomy,a common thing round here.

Needless to say, I was coming from the m&s food hall where proper drivers go.

 

 

 

[Cyker]

1 hour ago, dannyboy413 said:

I don't know what the problem is. Dig small channels in the roads, stick some brush handle or something to the underneath of the front axle so that it fits into the road channels, activate intelligent cruise control and you've cracked it. 😄

Okay, on a serious note, I just can not see totally driverless cars being on our roads in 10 years, let alone 3!

 

You joke but things like that have been proposed as a possible solution for long distance EV trucking