Difficult valuations

[Rav Rob]

I am waiting for the quote to arrive to possibly buy my leased RAV4, I am trying in advance to gauge what would be a good price.
There seems to be a lot of discrepancy in prices. Of course the valuation prices are those that someone would buy your car for and will be lower than the prices the cars are on sale for as people expect a margin.

But the discrepancy seem very wide, some sites have valued my car at only 18K to 21K but the ones close to mine on sale on Autotrader are in the 28K to 32K range. Are margins this big now? 
Obviously the current market price to buy is the key here in that if I were to go out and buy the same car it would cost me this much (minus some haggling), but its odd If after buying it I would lose 7K selling it the next day!

[wivenhoe]

The used car market prices have dived over the last couple of months. The market has slowed so some traders are only buying at rock bottom prices as they may have the car a lot longer than before and finance has also rocketed. I find Motorway to be a realistic valuation as they reflect the price bidding dealers are actually offering. 

I px’d my previous car for £ 62k last May and now it seems it is only worth £ 40k so £22k in 7 months. It only lost £ 10k in the previous 2 years !

The depressed market may work for you as the lease company will probably only get auction price for it so the value at WeBuyAnyCar may be representative of what they may be looking at. They won’t want the car hanging around once you return it. 

[Chas G]

19 minutes ago, Rav Rob said:

I am waiting for the quote to arrive to possibly buy my leased RAV4, I am trying in advance to gauge what would be a good price.
There seems to be a lot of discrepancy in prices. Of course the valuation prices are those that someone would buy your car for and will be lower than the prices the cars are on sale for as people expect a margin.

But the discrepancy seem very wide, some sites have valued my car at only 18K to 21K but the ones close to mine on sale on Autotrader are in the 28K to 32K range. Are margins this big now? 
Obviously the current market price to buy is the key here in that if I were to go out and buy the same car it would cost me this much (minus some haggling), but its odd If after buying it I would lose 7K selling it the next day!

I paid £22.5k for my September 2022 Yaris Cross in mid November. I was thinking of changing cars and the "we buy any car" offer was £17,500.

Toyota approved similar cars are generally £21k to £23k.

Some on Autotrader are cheaper.

[Rav Rob]

6 minutes ago, wivenhoe said:

The used car market prices have dived over the last couple of months. The market has slowed so some traders are only buying at rock bottom prices as they may have the car a lot longer than before and finance has also rocketed. I find Motorway to be a realistic valuation as they reflect the price bidding dealers are actually offering. 

I px’d my previous car for £ 62k last May and now it seems it is only worth £ 40k so £22k in 7 months. It only lost £ 10k in the previous 2 years !

The depressed market may work for you as the lease company will probably only get auction price for it so the value at WeBuyAnyCar may be representative of what they may be looking at. They won’t want the car hanging around once you return it. 

I have had some similar cars bookmarked in autotrader and they have been there a long time without shifting, so your right the market is slow. There are a vast number of used RAV's on Toyota's site.
As the car is to be a long term keeper I can live with the drop in residual value, I hope it does work in my favour as I want it as cheap as possible more than resale value

[Mjolinor]

The best way to gauge price is searching eBay "sold" items and comparing them to eBay "completed" items.

[Flatcoat]

9 hours ago, Mjolinor said:

The best way to gauge price is searching ebay "sold" items and comparing them to ebay "completed" items.

I very much doubt eBay is a source of sales for 3 year old RAV’s. 
I assume the OP is comparing forecourt prices for same spec, age, history, condition and mileage to the lease car under consideration. Cars for sale on forecourts come with warranties, finance incentives, and the dealer has to make a profit and pay their overheads (strange notion but true). Buying sites such as WBAC offer bottom book values and in my view are aimed at the desperate seller and those who have no idea of value or how to negotiate. From my experience ‘Motorway’ valuations are not far off. 
Overall the car market is now stabilising after the disruption of Covid. However the UK market is also smaller and probably permanently so. This is the consequence of much more WFH resulting in many households reducing their car needs - we have gone from 2 down to 1 car - and cost pressures. The outcome is demand is now subdued while supply is high, all of which has a negative effect on values. 
Until you have the quote I would hang fire and then perhaps come back here. However given what you do know, if you can buy it for £20-£22k grab it, if above £27k I might walk away. 

[Mjolinor]

1 hour ago, Flatcoat said:

I very much doubt eBay is a source of sales for 3 year old RAV’s. 
 

 

Up to three years old there are 219 for sale at the moment, none sold and 12 completed.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/b/bn_55184491?_dmd=2&_fsrp=0&Model%20Year=2019|2020|2021&_sop=2&rt=nc&mag=1

 

[flash22]

you are talking about trade (book value) and retail prices - what are all over the place

trade values are 25-50% less than retail, finance, lease, and PCP rates vary, and calculations can get complex. I would think somewhere in the middle between trade and retail as a guestimate so mid-20k ish

[wivenhoe]

As the OP is looking to buy his leased car then the lease company will be looking at getting only trade - I doubt lease companies take in cars, prepare and then sell, they would dump them into auctions for a quick return. 

[Flatcoat]

26 minutes ago, wivenhoe said:

As the OP is looking to buy his leased car then the lease company will be looking at getting only trade - I doubt lease companies take in cars, prepare and then sell, they would dump them into auctions for a quick return. 

Not necessarily, I have seen some quotes that are as high as retail. Also Some lease companies will not sell cars other than through the trade/auctions. 

[Terry10]

Interesting one this, a few years back now I had a transit on lease in our company. We decided to buy it as it hadn't had a hard life and we would have to replace if anyway.The lease company wanted about a thousand pounds more than we thought they would ask, and we really had done our homework before we approached them. Quite taken aback but we did buy it as we couldn't find anything else as good for the money. And we did try to haggle but they just said it was not negotiable, end of.        These lease companies really are very switched on. Good luck with it.

Terry

 

 

[Rav Rob]

10 hours ago, Flatcoat said:

I very much doubt eBay is a source of sales for 3 year old RAV’s. 
I assume the OP is comparing forecourt prices for same spec, age, history, condition and mileage to the lease car under consideration. Cars for sale on forecourts come with warranties, finance incentives, and the dealer has to make a profit and pay their overheads (strange notion but true). Buying sites such as WBAC offer bottom book values and in my view are aimed at the desperate seller and those who have no idea of value or how to negotiate. From my experience ‘Motorway’ valuations are not far off. 
Overall the car market is now stabilising after the disruption of Covid. However the UK market is also smaller and probably permanently so. This is the consequence of much more WFH resulting in many households reducing their car needs - we have gone from 2 down to 1 car - and cost pressures. The outcome is demand is now subdued while supply is high, all of which has a negative effect on values. 
Until you have the quote I would hang fire and then perhaps come back here. However given what you do know, if you can buy it for £20-£22k grab it, if above £27k I might walk away. 

Thanks, taken on board. 

I did find a bit of a 'back way' into the lease companies quoting system but its not necessarily what my company will actually demand, but it did indicate just £22K
It was registered in Jan 2022 (71) so will be almost exactly 2 years old, fully serviced and in mint condition, 43K miles, Excel 4WD with metallic paint, no other extras. 
If this is the case it seems a lot of car for the money, it still feels new, has a year of warranty left, and even insurance quotes seem good...

I will be back when the official offer is in...

[Rav Rob]

3 hours ago, Flatcoat said:

Not necessarily, I have seen some quotes that are as high as retail. Also Some lease companies will not sell cars other than through the trade/auctions. 

True, when I handed my Honda back, a few cars back, this lease company had me leave it at their officially nominated Honda dealer and I was told it would be marketed by the dealer for the lease company. They also got the Honda dealer to hold and do the handover on the Mitsubishi I was collecting! 

PS I checked on that old Honda CRV recently, its now done a trillion miles and still passing MOT's with little issue year after year. Japanese cars!

[Rhymes with Paris]

26 minutes ago, Rav Rob said:

PS I checked on that old Honda CRV recently, its now done a trillion miles and still passing MOT's with little issue year after year. Japanese cars!

Aye Rob, I had a 2012 idect until early 2020, so am interested.

Would you mind telling me if it was a diesel, and the actual mileage when you checked?

I must say it was a very comfortable car for me and my elderly passengers, with it's high seating, and good suspension.

Pretty good engine too, power and torque wise, but I did wonder how long the turbo would last long term,so do these engines do a couple of hundred thousand miles without trouble, do you know?

[Rav Rob]

10 minutes ago, Rhymes with Paris said:

Aye Rob, I had a 2012 idect until early 2020, so am interested.

Would you mind telling me if it was a diesel, and the actual mileage when you checked?

I must say it was a very comfortable car for me and my elderly passengers, with it's high seating, and good suspension.

Pretty good engine too, power and torque wise, but I did wonder how long the turbo would last long term,so do these engines do a couple of hundred thousand miles without trouble, do you know?

Mine was a 2010 4WD SR, one of the first Idtec's, I did 90,000 in 4 years then it moved on. Its now at 165,000 and passing MOT's but with some advisory notes about brake disk condition, some signs of play in suspension joints and deteriorating joint dust covers.

Yes suspension and handling were great, only thing I felt was a bit weak was the clutch, it didn't like slipping for long at all before smelling, even while shuffling into a tight parking spot.
I handed it back at 90K it still looked and drove like a new car. Only 1 fault ever, a faulty sensor in the engine somewhere. Only reason it wasn't fixed as quick as it could be was because the dealer didn't understand the engine data and was too proud to ask Honda HQ who knew instantly what it was.

[Rhymes with Paris]

Yes, thanks Rob.

Good cars overall I think.

And yes, the clutch, I did notice, but not so much problem slipping it, as more a grabbing and lurching in first and second gear when taking off.

Perhaps I wasn't slipping it enough.

And yes to Japanese cars in general, they know how to make 'em properly.

[Rav Rob]

So, I am buying it at £22K, very happy at that.

Better still, getting insurance quotes, as my status will be retired and I live in a low risk area its coming in as low as £410 which is not too bad!

When my daughters was a 'school student' her insurance was way cheaper than now, they told me its because she would travel less at peak risk times. I guess its the same for retired as I will just be popping down the bingo on Tuesday afternoons or the garden centre for a tea & scone lol

[SimonAdd]

Our August 2022 RAV4 Excel Hybrid 4WD is at the end of PCP this month.

Settlement figure is £17,300.

its got a load of extras so we’ve bought it.  25000 miles & mint so pleased with that. 

[Flatcoat]

1 hour ago, SimonAdd said:

Our August 2022 RAV4 Excel Hybrid 4WD is at the end of PCP this month.

Settlement figure is £17,300.

its got a load of extras so we’ve bought it.  25000 miles & mint so pleased with that. 

What is likely sale value? Above or below? If below I would consider handing it back….. 

[Rav Rob]

2 hours ago, SimonAdd said:

Our August 2022 RAV4 Excel Hybrid 4WD is at the end of PCP this month.

Settlement figure is £17,300.

its got a load of extras so we’ve bought it.  25000 miles & mint so pleased with that. 

Sounds good, although your situation is a bit more complex because obviously you have paid a lot of the car off in payments already so they are asking you for the remains of the credit rather than anything to do with market value. It depends how much you have paid 'whole deal' if its worth buying at that price.

[ROCKETRON]

Surely the market value for a 22 reg with low mileage would be well over 20k. So it looks like 17300 would be a good price.

[P_J]

Added bonus of: you know the history of the car (that's worth a lot imo)