No change to the RAV, no new model in 2025

[HarryW2024]

I’ve seen that Toyota has technical agreements and collaboration with BYD and wonder where it will lead.
Rumour the next gen will use the latest Toyota developed 1.5 4 pot with BYD blade batteries in a longer range PHEV. Worth noting the BYD Seal U DM-i has up to 75mile EV range from 24.7kw of LFP blade batteries (it also uses it own 1.5 4 pot which claims to exceed current Toyota thermal efficiencies). Only question remains is their series/parallel gearbox as good as the T eCVT.

Also German built Tesla Model Y’s already have BYD blade batteries too.

[Flatcoat]

Toyota are also developing their own solid state batteries too so not convinced they would buy in from BYD. They are however working with Suzuki to buy in an Indian built Toyota badged EV from Suzuki. 

[GBgraham]

46 minutes ago, Flatcoat said:

Toyota are also developing their own solid state batteries too so not convinced they would buy in from BYD. They are however working with Suzuki to buy in an Indian built Toyota badged EV from Suzuki. 

 They sure are Adrian, but rather than developing it's more to the point developed. 

https://www.topspeed.com/automakers-on-notice-toyota-745-mile-solid-state-battery/

[Cyker]

9 hours ago, HarryW2024 said:

I’ve seen that Toyota has technical agreements and collaboration with BYD and wonder where it will lead.
Rumour the next gen will use the latest Toyota developed 1.5 4 pot with BYD blade batteries in a longer range PHEV. Worth noting the BYD Seal U DM-i has up to 75mile EV range from 24.7kw of LFP blade batteries (it also uses it own 1.5 4 pot which claims to exceed current Toyota thermal efficiencies). Only question remains is their series/parallel gearbox as good as the T eCVT.

Also German built Tesla Model Y’s already have BYD blade batteries too.

I suspect that is more for cars in the Chinese market - Toyota are pretty smart and they know if they manufacture their own cutting-edge tech in China the plans will just get pirated and copied to smeg like everything else, but by leveraging BYD's stuff the chances of that are far reduced so they could just fit existing models with BYD drive trains for instance and flog them over there without all their stuff getting ripped-off. This is a less the USA has been slow to learn...

 

Solid state stuff is still a long ways off from the market - I think 5-6 years at the absolute earliest and they will be expensive and have questionable reliability. Toyota's original roadmap was for it to be ready for 2040  mass deployment before they had the rug pulled out from under them with the change to 2030. They've tried to accelerate it but that 2040 estimate was for a reason and there's only so much you can do.

We actually already have solid state cells but they are worse than existing lithium cells in almost every way (Shorter cycle life, worse energy density, fragile, much more expensive, but they don't catch fire when shorted and tolerate electrical and temperature abuse better) - What Toyota are trying to do is fix all the problems that make them worse AND make them easier to mass manufacture (This has proven to be tricky and is a big reason why nobody bothered with solid state cells before now)

[Nick72]

7 minutes ago, Cyker said:

I suspect that is more for cars in the Chinese market - Toyota are pretty smart and they know if they manufacture their own cutting-edge tech in China the plans will just get pirated and copied to smeg like everything else, but by leveraging BYD's stuff the chances of that are far reduced so they could just fit existing models with BYD drive trains for instance and flog them over there without all their stuff getting ripped-off. This is a less the USA has been slow to learn...

 

Solid state stuff is still a long ways off from the market - I think 5-6 years at the absolute earliest and they will be expensive and have questionable reliability. Toyota's original roadmap was for it to be ready for 2040  mass deployment before they had the rug pulled out from under them with the change to 2030. They've tried to accelerate it but that 2040 estimate was for a reason and there's only so much you can do.

We actually already have solid state cells but they are worse than existing lithium cells in almost every way (Shorter cycle life, worse energy density, fragile, much more expensive, but they don't catch fire when shorted and tolerate electrical and temperature abuse better) - What Toyota are trying to do is fix all the problems that make them worse AND make them easier to mass manufacture (This has proven to be tricky and is a big reason why nobody bothered with solid state cells before now)

4 to 6 years for large scale deployment of SS batteries. 

[GBgraham]

11 hours ago, Nick72 said:

4 to 6 years for large scale deployment of SS batteries. 

Believe me, SSB's will be with us much sooner. Technology moves on so fast these days. 

[philip42h]

38 minutes ago, GBgraham said:

12 hours ago, Nick72 said:

4 to 6 years for large scale deployment of SS batteries. 

Believe me, SSB's will be with us much sooner. Technology moves on so fast these days. 

An interesting, and apparently balanced, review of the situation here: https://www.freethink.com/hard-tech/future-of-solid-state-batteries

While SS batteries are already appearing in coin cell sizes, scaling up is still in development. We seem likely to see solid state smartphone batteries next before mass production of EV sized batteries. Nick's estimate seems reasonable to me ...

[GBgraham]

1 hour ago, philip42h said:

An interesting, and apparently balanced, review of the situation here: https://www.freethink.com/hard-tech/future-of-solid-state-batteries

While SS batteries are already appearing in coin cell sizes, scaling up is still in development. We seem likely to see solid state smartphone batteries next before mass production of EV sized batteries. Nick's estimate seems reasonable to me ...

Problems in technologies can be solved overnight, many are pushing for the holy grail in SSB's

https://www.monolithai.com/blog/solid-state-battery-news

"Samsung SDI has progressed in developing solid-state batteries, targeting mass production by 2027. The company showcased these advancements at SNE Battery Day 2024, revealing that customer feedback on initial samples has been positive."

 

"Toyota is accelerating its solid-state Battery development for electric vehicles (EVs), targeting production by 2027-2028. The company aims to achieve a 750-mile range and a rapid 10-minute charging time with these batteries. Toyota's solid-state batteries promise a higher energy density, improved safety, and reduced charging times compared to current lithium-ion technologies. " 

[philip42h]

So, staying more or less on topic, we don't expect to see a new model RAV4 in 2025, and, if we do see one in 2026, it is unlikely to include a solid-state Battery.

[GBgraham]

53 minutes ago, philip42h said:

So, staying more or less on topic, we don't expect to see a new model RAV4 in 2025, and, if we do see one in 2026, it is unlikely to include a solid-state battery.

One never knows, there could be one late 25 and be called a 26 model, but I suspect you could be very correct.

[HarryW2024]

Interesting recent chat about Battery tech here;

https://youtu.be/M6hwm7dLe1Y?si=BQcaGRAzJ5EQdZPK

 

[Cyker]

11 hours ago, philip42h said:

An interesting, and apparently balanced, review of the situation here: https://www.freethink.com/hard-tech/future-of-solid-state-batteries

While SS batteries are already appearing in coin cell sizes, scaling up is still in development. We seem likely to see solid state smartphone batteries next before mass production of EV sized batteries. Nick's estimate seems reasonable to me ...

Good article, esp. the end - I didn't know they'd found a way to use silicates instead of lithium, that would be a massive breakthrough if they can get that working and mass manufactured!

I'm surprised that hasn't been publicised more as that's way more interesting than e.g. sodium ion batteries  

[SimB]

Not a new model but something of interest for the RAV4 community and obviously some folk at Toyota have had some fun with 

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-explores-next-gen-rav4-possibilities-with-rav-x-at-the-2024-sema-show/

[philip42h]

1 hour ago, SimB said:

Not a new model but something of interest for the RAV4 community and obviously some folk at Toyota have had some fun with 

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-explores-next-gen-rav4-possibilities-with-rav-x-at-the-2024-sema-show/

Now that is interesting ... it's just a 2024 RAV4 PHEV with a 'butch' makeover - which means that if there is demand (in the US) we could see it becoming available as a 2025 / 26 'special' along the lines of the Black edition, Adventure grade or GR Sport! 🙂

[Nick72]

7 hours ago, SimB said:

Not a new model but something of interest for the RAV4 community and obviously some folk at Toyota have had some fun with 

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-explores-next-gen-rav4-possibilities-with-rav-x-at-the-2024-sema-show/

A lot of Americans have added lift kits to increase ground clearance, smaller wheels with fat all terrain tyres, nudge bars, and decent skid plates. Off road adventure. This may be playing into what seems to be an established mods market in North America. Increase clearance by a few inches, improve approach and departure angles, put AT tyres and different wheels on it, and make it look macho.

[ToyotaFanDriver]

On 11/5/2024 at 9:03 AM, philip42h said:

So, staying more or less on topic, we don't expect to see a new model RAV4 in 2025, and, if we do see one in 2026, it is unlikely to include a solid-state battery.

How else would they convince people to by any "facelift" model a few years later...If they leave it out it will get some existing pcp buyers to swap and may entice new buyers as well by then.

[Uragan]

Just to touch on the hydrogen thing … I’m sure I read somewhere that Toyota had developed it that the hydrogen gas was made just before or in  the inlet  manifold .. there fore all you needed to do was get the hose pipe out to fill your tank up ! 

[Nick72]

2 hours ago, Uragan said:

Just to touch on the hydrogen thing … I’m sure I read somewhere that Toyota had developed it that the hydrogen gas was made just before or in  the inlet  manifold .. there fore all you needed to do was get the hose pipe out to fill your tank up ! 

Yeh there's no way that's the case. Nor could be the case unless they've solved some major barriers in physics and chemistry. 

 

[moggio53]

6 hours ago, Uragan said:

Just to touch on the hydrogen thing … I’m sure I read somewhere that Toyota had developed it that the hydrogen gas was made just before or in  the inlet  manifold .. there fore all you needed to do was get the hose pipe out to fill your tank up ! 

Reminds me of the railway train on test at the mo that runs on hydrogen. So use electricity to split water, throw away the oxygen and use the hydrogen to make electricity again - genius

[Nick72]

6 minutes ago, moggio53 said:

Reminds me of the railway train on test at the mo that runs on hydrogen. So use electricity to split water, throw away the oxygen and use the hydrogen to make electricity again - genius

So it's running on hydrogen.

Splitting water by electrolysis consumes a huge amount energy, is highly inefficient, costs a fortune in precious metal catalysts, and needs to be conducted at a large scale. Infeasible to do this on a car. 

[moggio53]

Just now, Nick72 said:

So it's running on hydrogen.

Splitting water by electrolysis consumes a huge amount energy, is highly inefficient, costs a fortune in precious metal catalysts, and needs to be conducted at a large scale. Infeasible to do this on a car. 

No, the energy driving the train is electric, since the train is using the original motors that were fitted over 20 years ago

[Nick72]

52 minutes ago, moggio53 said:

No, the energy driving the train is electric, since the train is using the original motors that were fitted over 20 years ago

I'm talking about the fuel or energy source on the vehicle and which is converted into work. So you're saying it's Battery powered?

[moggio53]

6 minutes ago, Nick72 said:

I'm talking about the fuel or energy source on the vehicle and which is converted into work. So you're saying it's battery powered?

errrr....no

I think you've misunderstood the premise here - so lets just leave it at that 

[philip42h]

13 hours ago, Nick72 said:

16 hours ago, Uragan said:

Just to touch on the hydrogen thing … I’m sure I read somewhere that Toyota had developed it that the hydrogen gas was made just before or in  the inlet  manifold .. there fore all you needed to do was get the hose pipe out to fill your tank up ! 

Yeh there's no way that's the case. Nor could be the case unless they've solved some major barriers in physics and chemistry. 

Come on Nick, keep up, they will incorporate the TNFR (Toyota Nano Fusion Reactor) within the design ...

 

 

... and for the benefit of anyone for whom it isn't obvious, that was an attempt at humour - I made it up! 😉 

... but if you Google either Uragan's original statement, or my piece of fiction, you will get 'hits' supporting both. 21st century social media is a wonderful thing ... 😄 

[SimB]

Is the TNFR an update to Mr Fusion from the Delorean,  asking for a friend from the future 🙂